Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Stormcenter]

Boooooooooo!

What is the "boo" thing all about?

[Wx_Warrior]

Still believe it 'hater?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The thing that looks the most odd to me is how slow that model shows her moving from east to west. If that high does build in as strong as it is showing at that location she would more than likely be moving along at a much quicker pace across FL and the gulf.

[Ivanhater]

Cause I dont like that scenario

[ROCK]

Boooooooooo!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif


yep theres your trof and Fl panhandle it is........Man lets see that would make for Key West, FL landfall, Naples, EC of FL and finally the panhandle......you guys will have the whole STATE in a state of emergency.......5 Fl landfalls!!! unreal.....

[Ivanhater]

Well landfall Pensacola..if this run happened, she has a mission to mess up all of Florida's beaches..lol

[Brent]

Bad bad BAD Fay if this run happens.

[mattpetre]

Boooooooooo!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif


yep theres your trof and Fl panhandle it is........Man lets see that would make for Key West, FL landfall, Naples, EC of FL and finally the panhandle......you guys will have the whole STATE in a state of emergency.......5 Fl landfalls!!! unreal.....

Well, 5 FL landfalls or landexits at least.

[ROCK]

you FL guys, would really need to move if this were to verify.....

[sweetpea]

you FL guys, would really need to move if this were to verify.....

I normally don't make useless posts when it is so busy-but this one made me laugh

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock..the thing is, were not talking a long way out..bout 5 days..inside cone display

[Ivanhater]

She still has a high to her north,at 156 Please let her escape this time

[ROCK]

Lol Rock..the thing is, were not talking a long way out..bout 5 days..inside cone display

yeah, might as well put all of FL in the cone for the rest of the week.....


can you imagine the rain fall totals...geezz...wind might not be all that bad if she has to reorganize after exiting FL the 2nd time...but the rainfall.....whoa!!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What do you guys think of the speed this run has her moving westward at? Seems to me way to slow considering the strength of the ridge and its location. Think she should be travelling quicker with a little wsw movement mixed in?

[mattpetre]

Good luck to everyone in FL (esp. SW) tonight. Heading to bed to see what surprises are in store tomorrow. I'll leave you with this as an addendum to the 500mb steering product I linked earlier. Looks like things are quickly changing as far as steering. That high over the Upper Plains could be key. Doesn't look like anything is moving fast, just very chaotically. Take it for what it's worth. I still wouldn't be totally surprised to see another landfall west of NO, but that's a very humble and unproffesional opinion. Good night and good luck.

[Derek Ortt]

She still has a high to her north,at 156 Please let her escape this time

its the consistency of GFS that I am worried about. It also was the only model to accurately depict the UL

I wrote in a nighttime posting at PNJ that I CANNOT sound the all clear due to the long-term track uncertainty

[Ivanhater]

She still has a high to her north,at 156 Please let her escape this time

its the consistency of GFS that I am worried about. It also was the only model to accurately depict the UL

I wrote in a nighttime posting at PNJ that I CANNOT sound the all clear due to the long-term track uncertainty

Well crap..im bout to go read it..with the Olympics anf Fay going on for another week, I wont be sleeping

Edit to add Dereks write up on Fay's future..

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

[jaxfladude]

yep theres your trof and Fl panhandle it is........Man lets see that would make for Key West, FL landfall, Naples, EC of FL and finally the panhandle......you guys will have the whole STATE in a state of emergency.......5 Fl landfalls!!! unreal.....

Retirement cred...? The World Meteorological Organization retirement policy if I hear about it right says that Names can be retired for being unusual even if they are not huge disasters(fay if that multiple Fla landfall track does verify, may still rack up damage totals when it is all said and done)...please help me about this point...

[HURAKAN]

534
WHXX04 KWBC 190529
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.0 82.0 360./ 8.0
6 25.3 81.7 47./ 4.3
12 26.0 81.1 42./ 8.2
18 27.0 80.5 31./11.6
24 27.5 80.1 39./ 6.5
30 28.1 79.9 20./ 5.9
36 28.8 79.8 7./ 6.8
42 29.1 79.7 15./ 3.9
48 29.5 79.5 28./ 4.2
54 30.0 79.5 354./ 4.5
60 30.5 79.6 352./ 5.6
66 31.0 79.9 325./ 5.7
72 31.4 80.4 311./ 5.1
78 31.8 80.8 309./ 5.6
84 32.2 81.4 304./ 6.1
90 32.7 82.0 316./ 7.3
96 33.3 82.5 318./ 7.2
102 34.1 83.1 322./ 9.2
108 35.1 83.6 333./11.1
114 36.3 83.9 348./12.0
120 37.1 83.9 357./ 8.6
126 38.0 83.7 16./ 8.8

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z GFDL and HWRF take fay over Martin and SLC's and takes 2 days to do so!!!