ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

So all the carib islands could have a piece of Omar beginning by the ABC islands as a TS storm for the moment, and the "worst" theorically is to come damn , that's awful!
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN TO THE N AND SE OF OMAR'S CENTER.
Hope he will stay a "simple cat 1 "and no more ... ...

Pressure is down to 986 so it is definitely deepening rapidly.

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK has it at 60 kts and 982 mbs.

AL, 15, 2008101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 689W, 60, 982, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[CrazyC83]

BEST TRACK has it at 60 kts and 982 mbs.

AL, 15, 2008101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 689W, 60, 982, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

They must see something we aren't seeing, since Recon only supports about 50 kt and 986mb.

[Gustywind]

So all the carib islands could have a piece of Omar beginning by the ABC islands as a TS storm for the moment, and the "worst" theorically is to come damn , that's awful!
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN TO THE N AND SE OF OMAR'S CENTER.
Hope he will stay a "simple cat 1 "and no more ... ...

Pressure is down to 986 so it is definitely deepening rapidly.

Absolutely tkanks i guess it, it's ok !
Big Baby has not enough juicy convection, i can't imagine this feature really getting act....
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Gustywind]

Could be a cat 1 a 5pm at this rate, 982mb it's a joke boombing attempt should be in store...?

[Derek Ortt]

its only going to be about 36-48 hours before striking the northern Caribbean. A watch is justified now (at least replace the TS watch with a hurricane watch)

[Derek Ortt]

was there a dropsonde in the eye?

[somethingfunny]

The NW quadrant doesn't look very healthy. I think that at some point Omar's strength will plateau because of that SW shear.

[Gustywind]

14/1745 UTC 13.8N 68.8W T3.5/3.5 OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean

[Derek Ortt]

anti-cyclonic flow is becoming established in the upper levels. Seems as if the entire Carib is about to be under a large anti-cyclone

[Gustywind]

3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
Low winds ( actual Omar's winds) compared to the pressure....

[caribepr]

Kinda feels like that here, Derek!

[somethingfunny]

The NW quadrant doesn't look very healthy. I think that at some point Omar's strength will plateau because of that SW shear.

Well, it didn't look so great a couple of hours ago anyway......Omar looks alot better now but I still don't think this is going to pull a Wilma like some on this board are suggesting.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow:
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
Low winds ( actual Omar's winds) compared to the pressure....

It seems to be in an environment more typical of the Western Pacific.

[Category 5]

AL, 15, 2008101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 689W, 60, 982, TS,


BTW, Recon hasn't been in the NE quad.

[cycloneye]

Taking the coma-shape look.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 15, 2008101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 689W, 60, 982, TS,


BTW, Recon hasn't been in the NE quad.

The NE quad should be the weakest part since it is moving SE.

[Derek Ortt]

its moving SE, the SW quad is the RFQ

[Category 5]

its moving SE, the SW quad is the RFQ

Oh that's right, not used to SE moving cyclones in the Atlantic lol.

They haven't been there either

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

AL, 15, 2008101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 689W, 60, 982, TS,


BTW, Recon hasn't been in the NE quad.

Based on that and the satellite image posted above it could be 65 kt = 75 mph by
5 pm.