ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Texashawk]

Looks like some favorable Upper Level Outflow forming this afternoon to support that thunderstorm development.

You know, this is just my opinion, but if there were a llc centered in the middle of the convection blob id say it has the appearance of at least a 60mph ts. Of course its not now, but that has to be one of the best-formed pseudo CDO's ive ever seen

Now that's a hell of an open wave!

[Steve]

>>I'm going to assume we're all wrong

Not all of us were hyping up the IR Sat presentations - not even all of us who would give chances of eventual development of > 90%.

>>If it were further south then the Canadian run would be somewhat believable but based on where it's at right now I think the East coast event scenario looks more probable.

Agreed. As noted above, 12z messes up eastern Florida pretty good. I don't know how plausible that scenario is without a building high to the ENE of the system, but you never know. Here's a closeup from raleighwx (warning long d/l time):

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... lLoop.html

[Stormcenter]

12z hwrf 116kts...
50 miles off melbourne

cat 4!!

I sure hope that doesn't pan out.

[x-y-no]

Today's HPC discussion:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
115 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 17 2008 - 12Z THU AUG 21 2008

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

WITH THE ADVENT OF THE COMPLETE 00Z AND 06Z NUMERICAL MODEL
SUITE...DECIDED TO RELY PRIMARILY ON THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A PROGRESSIVE
BLEND TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM DAY 5 ONWARD.
THE GFS LOOKS UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY INTENSE WITH THE TROUGH IT BRINGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE EUROPEAN
CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AFFORDING A MORE REASONABLE STAND IN FOR A
POSSIBLE DEEPER SOLUTION...EVENED OUT BY THE FLATTER DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF IN THE CHOSEN BLEND.

USED YESTERDAYS COORDINATED TRACK FOR THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...WITH A SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE
DAY 7 POINT IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
GEM GLOBAL SENDS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...REPRESENTING THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
SHEARING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA DEFINING THIS
GUIDANCE TO THE RIGHT. WILL HAVE ANOTHER COORDINATION WITH TPC
TODAY AND TAKE A FRESH LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM.

FINAL...

THE 12Z GFS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH THE BLEND
CHOSEN FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE OF THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES OVER MOST OF THE NATION FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN DIRECTING THE
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA...BUT AGREED
WITH THE SPECIALIST THERE THAT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER THE STRENGTH
OR TRACK OF THIS LOW IS QUITE LOW. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL TAKES THE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...THEN LIFTS IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT NORTHWARD WELL SHORT OF THE
FLORIDA COAST IN A HEAVILY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.


CISCO

[DESTRUCTION5]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/

Im going to say this is a Cane long before the Bahamas...

[wxman57]

I can definitely identify an LLC on surface obs about 140 miles west of the convective blob near 17.7N/63.7W. This is just east of St. Croix, and the reason the plane is already reporting SW winds. The SW winds are from the remnant surface circulation well west of the convection.

It's certainly possible there is no LLC beneath that blob yet. But the way it looks now, it won't be long until it's a TS.

[Canelaw99]

Looks like some favorable Upper Level Outflow forming this afternoon to support that thunderstorm development.

You know, this is just my opinion, but if there were a llc centered in the middle of the convection blob id say it has the appearance of at least a 60mph ts. Of course its not now, but that has to be one of the best-formed pseudo CDO's ive ever seen

Now that's a hell of an open wave!

You can say that again LOL

[tolakram]

> I'm going to assume we're all wrong (with the notable exceptions)

Don't snip off my text for dramatic effect.


About an hour ago:

[hurricanetrack]

This is incredible. What a season. You guys keep up the good work here- we have a long way to go it seems and things are just getting started. I have never seen such a well developed tropical wave, just incredible. Anyone expect a STDS soon?

[terrapintransit]

> I'm going to assume we're all wrong (with the notable exceptions)

Don't snip off my text for dramatic effect.


About an hour ago:

WOW By the looks of this........I cannot believe this is not a tropical storm yet!!!

[Aric Dunn]

I can definitely identify an LLC on surface obs about 140 miles west of the convective blob near 17.7N/63.7W. This is just east of St. Croix, and the reason the plane is already reporting SW winds. The SW winds are from the remnant surface circulation well west of the convection.

It's certainly possible there is no LLC beneath that blob yet. But the way it looks now, it won't be long until it's a TS.

hmmm.... ok thats wierd..
umm 17.7n 63.7w

is the same one i have tracking for the pst few hours.. ..

so where are you saying the "remnant" circ is?

[tolakram]

WOW By the looks of this........I cannot believe this is not a tropical storm yet!!!

Ah but see I think I learned something. See how the clouds south of the storm are streaming north? This should not be so with a well defined LLC. We should see a clearly circular motion with the low level clouds (inflow) circling in and not heading directly north into the convection.

[Frank2]

"Bursting" is currently seen in the IR photo, so, perhaps there's some weakening going on, or, it might be diurnal weakening (since it's after 3 p.m. out there):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

P.S. Fortunately, there appears to be a TUTT to the west of the disturbance, so, that's good as far as the environment not being all that favorable...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[KWT]

Aric, yeah I can see what you've been watching as well now, seems a little on the broad side but thats a LLC even if its only the remians, close to where the little convection is trying to pop.

Hard to believe that we won't see a LLC trying to form under that MLC, its got the presentation of a strong Tropcial Storm for goodness sake!

[micktooth]

[littlevince]

Radar Loop (16:00-18:00z)

[KWT]

Also should be noted that once these do stack up better with such a strong MLC I expect some rapid strengthening upto strong TS status given the presentation it has at the moment.

[ronjon]

Are we maybe looking at a Donna type track with 92L - midway between GFDL and NOGAPS, perhaps?

[cheezyWXguy]

"Bursting" is currently seen in the IR photo, so, perhaps there's some weakening going on, or, it might be diurnal weakening (since it's after 3 p.m. out there):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

P.S. Fortunately, there appears to be a TUTT to the west of the disturbance, so, that's good as far as the environment not being all that favorable...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

You are joking right. Conditions should be very favorable the next 5 days for strengthening but, really. Its an invest. No crap its only bursting. Even strong TS's do that and this shows no sign of weakening. In fact, a new burst is forming right now. Reds have reappeared.

[Aquawind]

That is an amazing MLC and has been the strongest feature since yesterday.. Once stacked it could be rather scary. The LL pattern still suggests it's out ahead of the MLC a tad imo.. Amazing signature for an MLC. That is weird it hasn't stacked or reformed.