ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

So long as he doesn't run the length of Cuber he could KWT as you indicated by it staying on track but we know how that usually plays out, a wrinkle somewhere.

[Air Force Met]

The models do seem to be swing to the west, but we all know how that goes. Tomorrow they will all swing east and on it goes this far out.

Everybody on the upper and west coasts of the GOM should watch this system carefully.

Unfortunately I think that is the cone. It all depends on the ridging. If the GFS is right...I see a turn to the NW-NNW...then a near stall and slow turn back to the WNW-NW. IF the UKMET is right...its NW towards Texas. If the CMC and Euro are right...ridging stays strong and it goes into south TX or N MX.

Gotta love it when there isn't a hude Bermuda high to steer around. Makes this forecating thing much simpler.

[KWT]

Nice image there Hurakan, you can see the way the eye has totally filled in again, looks pretty typical of a small hurricane, will weaken pretty readily and that seems to be happening despite clearly starting a strengthening phase again just before landfall.

[Hurricane Cheese]

It appears to me Gustav is still moving NW-WNW....has anyone found a satellite loop that hints of the beginning of a turn west?

[dwg71]

I'm still thinking GFS solution will be correct with central gulf as eventual target. Though GFS has underestimated ridges from time to time.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep the ridging is the key, if it breaks down sooner in response to that weakness extending down over the lower Miss. Valley it could turn sooner and if not West he goes!!!

[ROCK]

WRONG ANSWER, try again...

Don't need to. There is no right answer this far out...only rude...cranky people who feel like argueing with everyone

You know I'm just joking. I appreciate and value your opinion. Maybe your initial readings that said mexico will be turn out to be true.

Yeah, DWG71, dont be so cranky and argumentative!!! unless of course you are a lawyer and then its acceptable....

[Dean4Storms]

It appears to me Gustav is still moving NW-WNW....has anyone found a satellite loop that hints of the beginning of a turn west?

I think the ever peeping eyes of Sanibel concluded that the turn has begun.

[KWT]

AFM, certainly is tricky, I'd probably say LA-TX most likely at risk now, still think a Lili track won't be far from the mark but we shall see.

The current motion of 310 is about whats expected, that westerly turn is probably slowing happening now but its a gradual shift which will continue for the next 12-18hrs.

[Sabanic]

The models do seem to be swing to the west, but we all know how that goes. Tomorrow they will all swing east and on it goes this far out.

Everybody on the upper and west coasts of the GOM should watch this system carefully.

Back & Forth, Back & Forth

That is what Bama is going to do to Clemson Sat. Nite, drag em back and forth TD to TD!!!

RTR!!!!!

I hear ya Brother!!

[ConvergenceZone]

AFM, give us the 1:12PM AFM update...

Here it is: Current Hurricane center track looks good. That is my track from yesterday morning. I am starting to lean away from my northern GoM ideas. Looking at a lot of the consensus forecasts (mostly CGUN, TCON, TCCN, along with HWRF and GFDL combo)...I think it heads up to the central Gulf slows down...then maybe continuing NW into the NW Gulf...or..depending on the high strength....it could turn back west.

So....the western and NW gulf is open now.

Yea, if it DOES make it into the Gulf, I"m thinking that south/west Texas/Mexico seem to be the best bet for landfall......It's going to try and find the path of least resistence obviously...

[Smurfwicked]

Also for what its worth history does back up AFM track ideas a lot of systems that have come through the region Gustav are in have hit Texas or Mexico. I think this is very likely is a USA threat mainly but the whole gulf needs to be very aware of what the system is doing and the model trends, looks like the models are starting to come into better agreement about the next 120hrs in terms of track.

Meanwhile the well defined inner core of Gustav, eye is starting to shrink though as you'd expect with a small system overland.

What am I not understanding, I thought AFM said western GOM and was leaning towards Texas in his forecast? No? You're right about the history, I think all the storms from the history illustration I looked at earlier either hit Florida, some Louisiana, but a majority of them hit Texas. Saying that, I really don't buy into the history thing, because history is always waiting to be made tomorrow.

I think we could see a huge difference in track once this reaches the tip of western Cuba with still lots of uncertainty of where Gustav will go, until then I think AFM's forecast sounds pretty good to me.

edit:
*wakes up*

Sorry I clearly must of mis-read your post

[Wx_Warrior]

It's also fun to see who jumps on and off models...Two days ago GFS was junk...remember?

It's a guess-casting from us at this point.

[WmE]

Nice image there Hurakan, you can see the way the eye has totally filled in again, looks pretty typical of a small hurricane, will weaken pretty readily and that seems to be happening despite clearly starting a strengthening phase again just before landfall.

Yep these small hurricanes tend to fluctuate in intensity. It could very well enter a rapid strenghtening phase after it leaves Haiti.

[ROCK]

I am all for a Lili track and also its self destructing right before landfall......ingested some nice dry air and imploded if I remember correctly.....I think we could all live with that...

[Dean4Storms]

I'd be getting me self and me homies off the Little Caymans soon!

[weatherguru18]

My gut has told me Mississippi for a couple days. I'm just wondering how this trough around 144 hours will play out. These winter-like troughs may protect the upper-Texas coast. However it is all speculative at this time. If there is any good news in this, it's that most everybody knows this is going to be a huge hurricane...meaning high end category. I don't think it's going to take much convincing to get people to move and take it seriously when the time arrives for evacuating.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

[Dean4Storms]

It does appear that Gus has made a left turn.

[dwg71]

My gut has told me Mississippi for a couple days. I'm just wondering how this trough around 144 hours will play out. These winter-like troughs may protect the upper-Texas coast. However it is all speculative at this time. If there is any good news in this, it's that most everybody knows this is going to be a huge hurricane...meaning high end category. I don't think it's going to take much convincing to get people to move and take it seriously when the time arrives for evacuating.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

If that GFS pans out, no way it makes it to TX.... time will tell.

[KWT]

Yep WmE the key is whether its inner core is still in good shape, I'd suspect given its only going to overland for around 6-9hrs total it'll probably keep its inner core decent enough so as it'll only need a short amount of readjustment before strengthening can begin again.

given the forecasted strength of the high, a WSW motion is looking quite possible and when that happens and it moves slowly further away from Cuba thats when we should see greater strengthening again.