ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Actually, the 18Z GFS just skims the coast of Cba then turns Ike north then NE toward the northern peninsula - possibly Tampa area. Not all the model is in yet.

Yeah that was very clumsy post, I should have said south Florida...as you say it does dig down a sharp trough very similar to the one that lifted out Fay it seems.

CourierPR, I'm just saying what the models show right now...personally I think it may end up being a little further north of where the models are going but who knows?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

Actually, the 18Z GFS just skims the coast of Cba then turns Ike north then NE toward the northern peninsula - possibly Tampa area. Not all the model is in yet.

Good to see you WXman..Whats ur thoughts tonight?

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS is bringing it into the Central GOM and then slingshotting it ENE?


Geez....that'd be something if that were to verify.

[marie814]

I live in the florida city/homestead area. If possible, does anyone know what type of weather we might experience from Ike? Thanks

[fci]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

I love your theory in that it keeps storms away from me.
But I can't agree with it.

IF this storm follows the models and misses us to the South, it will have taken an unusual SW route to get there. In this case a factor that fell into place was something unusual.

All it takes is a ridge not quite as strong as this one and Ike moves WNW right into South Florida. We "look" like we may get lucky.

I don't really think there are that many "factors" that prevent this from happening.
All it takes is strong Bermuda high ridging over the SE US and we are in the crosshairs.
If a storm is north of Hispanola and has a blocking ridge north if it, there is not much it can do besides strike Florida. The Bahamas in its path do not disrupt circulations much and a storm can come in unscathed.
Luckily, they "usually go around the Bermuda High and take a natural recurvature. But put in a ridge and we are in danger.
IF it is so rare, please explain Frances and Jeanne 3 weeks apart.

South Florida has been struck many. many times so it is not a rare occurence.

Sorry, I like your theory's results but I don't agree with it.

[HurricaneQueen]

I was one of the original members here of S2K (Oct. 2002) and I don't believe I have ever seen such irresponsible posting as I have today. How can anyone say at this point that Florida is out of danger and that based on the 18Z models the storm is going to Cuba? (I don't believe the models are all in but I'm certain I will be corrected).

Nearly half of Florida is still in the 5 day cone. Please THINK before you post. Nobody is going to care what anyone said a day or two from now so no one has to tell us their every thought. This board is not a contest. It for opinions based on facts not wild guesses and hunches.

Please post responsibly. Thanks,
Lynn

[wxman57]

Good to see you WXman..Whats ur thoughts tonight?

My thoughts are I really would like a day off sometime. 12 days straight of 12-16 hr shifts now and at least 7 more to go with Ike.

18Z GFS slams Ike into tampa from the west next Friday evening then turns it toward the Carolinas, passing Hatteras Saturday evening. That'll be fun.

Very complex steering with the movement of Hanna having to be factored in, too. Maybe if Hanna moves faster then the high will build in faster north of Ike and move out faster, allowing for an earlier turn? Who knows at this point. I'd stay on my toes anywhere in Florida, including Miami/Palm Beach. And beware if you're in the panhandle, too. Ike could make final landfall anywhere from Louisiana to the Carolinas.

I think we'll have a much better idea where it's going by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

[Air Force Met]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

You need to be suspended for ignorance. 11 major hurricanes made landfall along the S FL pen. during last century alone. 8 of them in a 30 year period from 1920-1950.

I am personally against the use of the eye's rolling icon...and think it is way over-used on this board...but I am going to offer one up to you.

[Storm Contractor]

Are these the pictures of the Midwest high beginning to build in to the gulf?

-3 hours



Latest

[THead]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

VERY rare stuff has been happening the last 5 years or so. Whatever Ike ends up doing is already rare. Someone posted 20 pages or so ago the link to a historical map of every major hurricane within 200 miles of Ike since 1851, not one even touched the GOM, most recurved east of florida. Heads up!

[Air Force Met]

My thoughts are I really would like a day off sometime. 12 days straight of 12-16 hr shifts now and at least 7 more to go with Ike.

Oh...Boo Hoo. I did 10 days of 20-21 hours each. Darn near went unconscious when I finally was able to go out and eat with the family on Monday night. Fell asleep in the booth.

Suck it up and drive on soldier!

[KWT]

Weatherfreak000, it sort of is a bit like Fay in that it bends well inland quickly, the 12z did suggest that ould happen but until I see the UKMO and ECM do the same not sure I can put much faith into it.

Eye is starting to clear back out again now in the last few hours.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Weatherfreak000, it sort of is a bit like Fay in that it bends well inland quickly, the 12z did suggest that ould happen but until I see the UKMO and ECM do the same not sure I can put much faith into it.

Eye is starting to clear back out again now in the last few hours.

A bit more of a west movement lately?

[lonelymike]

I understand this would be dangerous thinking, but realistically a missed landfall to the south by 30 miles would likely put most of the mainland S. FL out of at least High-End Hurricane Force winds and into High-End Tropical Storm force, which in terms of structures is nothing, but still significant as I will state below. However, with every shift away from a given location, somewhere ELSE gets the full fury of whatever Ike becomes, hence the existence of the forecast cone. 30 Mile Shift North than the 'line' would bring the fury to homestead and 40 miles prob to S. Miami where there is a significant population.

A hurricane of this magnitude and formation is indeed a slightly thick LINE when it comes to 120 or 140 MPH winds, but this line is not really linear and is impossible to completely predict. The TS wind swath is significant because TS winds can cause a lot of indirect death during, but particularly after the storm thanks to weakened electrical and natural (tree) structures, generally when you are in the 3 day part of the cone, you can generally expect TS conditions, at this point I would start preparing to at least deal with TS conditions, and await OFFICIAL warning from the local government or the NHC. I really would disagree with spreading doom and or hope at this point in the game, NO model or consensus solutions can be considered a LIKELY path until much later and closer to the time where a watch would be put in place, I expect the track to have about 2-3 more revisions before it gets into range to make an educated guess.

One of the best posts I've seen here in a long time. This is more of a Dennis or Charley storm in size not a Gustav or Katrina. People need to quit freaking out and calm down. We probably won't know for a while where this storm is going. You can survive tropical storm force winds. If you live on the coast and take a direct hit...well that's the risk you run of living on the coast. So chill out tonite and we'll see what happens.

[jhpigott]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

You need to be suspended for ignorance. 11 major hurricanes made landfall along the S FL pen. during last century alone. 8 of them in a 30 year period from 1920-1950.

I am personally against the use of the eye's rolling icon...and think it is way over-used on this board...but I am going to offer one up to you.

Greensky - seriously, why don't you tell that to the people who pulled bodies out of Lake Okeechobee in 28' or those that were left to pick up the pieces in Mia after the 26' cane, or Lauderdale in 47', etc. etc. ad infintum . . . SEFLA is the first place in the CONUS to expect majors.

[Weatherfreak000]

Definitely true....would take a hell of a trough to slingshot the thing ENE though...

[cape_escape]

Van Winkle and the Channel 7 guy didn't mention anything about a High in the midwest preventing a hook into SW Florida. They said we are probably going to get enough of this storm to take it seriosuly and Van Winkle said his shutters are going up tomorrow.

I heard that too Sanibel, and I trust him, he was great through Charley!

[jlauderdal]

My thoughts are I really would like a day off sometime. 12 days straight of 12-16 hr shifts now and at least 7 more to go with Ike.

Oh...Boo Hoo. I did 10 days of 20-21 hours each. Darn near went unconscious when I finally was able to go out and eat with the family on Monday night. Fell asleep in the booth.

Suck it up and drive on soldier!

do you get overtime?

[KWT]

Yep and the GFS can sometimes overdo the troughs outside 96hrs, just like it did with the one that was expected by it to recurve Ike east of the Bahamas...

As Wxman57 said if you are in south Florida and esp the Keys, then keep a close eye on Ike, whilst the odds are possibly higher for a Cuba hit than south Florida hit, the models could *EASILY* swing back northwards and be a threat to S.Florida again...

[Brent]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

You need to be suspended for ignorance. 11 major hurricanes made landfall along the S FL pen. during last century alone. 8 of them in a 30 year period from 1920-1950.

I am personally against the use of the eye's rolling icon...and think it is way over-used on this board...but I am going to offer one up to you.