ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[greels]

For any of you that are the least bit interested, we are getting some rather nasty weather here on Provo, Turks & Caicos Islands.......

[KWT]

unfortunately a couple of bursts have just went up in the eyewall over Haiti

likely torrential rain and severe mudslides occurring there

not what I wanted to see Derek, but indeed can see those bursts very nicely on the high resolution imagery in that eastern eyewall, just got to hope its not too extreme.

vbhoutex, yep there willbe some further weakening but don't think the inner core will be all that badly disrupted unless it spends a good 6-12hrs longer than expected inland, could be out over water again in 6hrs.

[weatherguru18]

Now 50 people that are being reported dead because of Fay is a bad and a sad thing, but why having had Fay move right through DR/Hati for over a day caused a "low" for Hati/DR number of deaths, but your expecting this to be much more deadly. I understand that the ground is now moist and ready to come down, but what makes this storm more deadly then Fay besides that?

I know this isn't the right thread, but since it was brought up, does anybody think that Fay will be retired...becoming only the second T.S. ever to be retired (behind Allison)?

[TCmet]

unfortunately a couple of bursts have just went up in the eyewall over Haiti

likely torrential rain and severe mudslides occurring there

unfortunately, also, this is one of the highest areas of population density in the country (as of 1970 at least) - very near port-au-prince. the combination of high population density and mountains normally equals slums - especially on the outskirts of the capital. my research has shown this to be one of the best indicators of high mortality in hurricanes. send out your prayers and positive energy.

[jlauderdal]

Have the levees been rebuilt since Katrina?? I saw a documentary
they are building a stronger levee???

There is nothing they can do with a Cat 4 or 5.

rain is the issue with levees not wind folks

rain and surge. mostly surge.[/quote]

rain for lake Okeechobee, right?

[Derek Ortt]

Now 50 people that are being reported dead because of Fay is a bad and a sad thing, but why having had Fay move right through DR/Hati for over a day caused a "low" for Hati/DR number of deaths, but your expecting this to be much more deadly. I understand that the ground is now moist and ready to come down, but what makes this storm more deadly then Fay besides that?

already saturated ground for starters. Remember in Olga the DR had to make the decision to kill about 40 people via releasing water from a damn, to save about 4,000 that would have died had it have collapsed

Also, this came straight into Haiti as a much stronger system. Far greater rain rates for Haiti can be expected

[KWT]

Yeah thats a big difference Derek, this is a hurricane, Fay was just about a TS at this time, plus the ground is already very wet from Fay.
Just hope no one has to make that call this time round Derek!

As has been said it hit a fairly dense part of the island, the Ne eyewall was probably giving 90-95mph gusts in that region near landfall I'd guess as well?

[Agua]

God bless those poor people.

[Over my head]

For any of you that are the least bit interested, we are getting some rather nasty weather here on Provo, Turks & Caicos Islands.......

I imagine it's pretty wild there! Thank Goodness Gustav is not going directly over your tiny islands! Thank you for the status report.

[ColdFusion]

Gustav now dominating the headlines at NOLA.com

[Nexus]

Judging by where the eye came ashore, and where it "could be" now (it's obscured), the eye seems like it should be more than halfway across land already, though I kinda see more of a west component now:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[KWT]

Hardly surprising NOLA news companies have already latched onto Gustav given model tracks loosely suggest a threat possibly and after Katrina any loose threat will get attention.

Agua, yep this part of the world is very poor and is getting hammered by a hurricane right now on already wet ground.

[TCmet]

Yeah thats a big difference Derek, this is a hurricane, Fay was just about a TS at this time, plus the ground is already very wet from Fay.
Just hope no one has to make that call this time round Derek!

As has been said it hit a fairly dense part of the island, the Ne eyewall was probably giving 90-95mph gusts in that region near landfall I'd guess as well?

rain and slides will be the biggest threat. but wind will knock down trees... in mitch (honduras 1998) huge temporary dams/lakes spontaneously formed because of felled trees clogging up rivers - which added to the flooding.

[Derek Ortt]

Yeah thats a big difference Derek, this is a hurricane, Fay was just about a TS at this time, plus the ground is already very wet from Fay.
Just hope no one has to make that call this time round Derek!

As has been said it hit a fairly dense part of the island, the Ne eyewall was probably giving 90-95mph gusts in that region near landfall I'd guess as well?

rain and slides will be the biggest threat. but wind will knock down trees... in mitch (honduras 1998) huge temporary dams/lakes spontaneously formed because of felled trees clogging up rivers - which added to the flooding.

I don't believe there are many trees to knock down in Haiti. Most were either cut down or burned

The winds may do a number on the shanty towns though in Haiti

[KWT]

I have to admit the high reoslution imagery does rather suggest the westerly motion is kicking in now, not seeing it gaining all that much latitude right now, maybe down to 285-280 now in terms of direction which should keep it over land for possibly another 12hrs...inner core should weaken quite decently but being such a small system over condusive waters its bound to ramp up pretty quickly. May well be down to TS status when it reaches water again if it is heading more west now.

Derek, yeah gusts must be close to cat-2 upon landfall of Gustav, never good in the slums.

[ColdFusion]

Any bets being placed on the next NHC advisory? Track shift anyone?

My thinking is that there will be little if any change in the track @ the 5 PM.

[dwg71]

Little if any change...

[Texas Snowman]

Couple of interesting links dealing with historical tracks of storms in a position where Gus is right now.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... 41471.html - Big Map of Tracks

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ry_te.html - Houston Chronicle's Sci-Guy Discussing Historical Tracks

I'm kind of thinking that given models, motion trends, etc. that NOLA might end up being on the eastern side of the eventual landfall cone and that the Houston/Galveston area might be the bulls-eye.

As for 5 p.m. change, perhaps a little more to the left, but not much.

[cycloneye]

Little change in NHC track at 5 PM is what I think.

[Tampa_God]

I have to admit the high reoslution imagery does rather suggest the westerly motion is kicking in now, not seeing it gaining all that much latitude right now, maybe down to 285-280 now in terms of direction which should keep it over land for possibly another 12hrs...inner core should weaken quite decently but being such a small system over condusive waters its bound to ramp up pretty quickly. May well be down to TS status when it reaches water again if it is heading more west now.

Derek, yeah gusts must be close to cat-2 upon landfall of Gustav, never good in the slums.

I don't think we will see that much of weakening. I would estimate that the storm might lose 10 mph, the most. It still has a lot of moisture and even with the mountains, Gustav won't feel that much of a affect. But I do see a more west to west northwest track right now.

I don't see them changing the track at all.