ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

Not that I've seen everything, but I don't think I've ever seen anything like that GFDL run with such a long trek almost due south, and then slipping between Hispaniola and Cuba. That seems nutty. What kind of pattern produces that track? I'm assuming it would have to be a very narrow high to the west of Hanna.
Where is the trough that could turn this out to sea?
The intensity is worrisome too.
Looks like we may hit the season average of two majors (2.5 actually, I guess) in just the next week.

Peak of the season is still just under two weeks away also and we know even October can be a busy month. There is a chance we can exceed the avg.

[canegrl04]

Call it the 'Hanna takes a dive' move .Weird

[HURRICANELONNY]

The High off the east coast is suppose to be pretty strong. Causing possibly northerly 45-50kt shear. That could push Hanna or whats left of her south.

[O Town]

GFS has Hanna diving down south through the Bahamas and takes off west through the FL straights and heading toward the gulf at the end of its run.

~GFS~

[gatorcane]

Another view of the GFS run....south of Florida now ==> then a FL panhandle issue later.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The EURO shows Hanna copying Gustav in the long run..



It would be absolutely HORRIBLE if this happened!

[Bocadude85]

Whats scary is that models are showing her turning to the west after her dive to the SW.. and yes we all know these models will change.. but lets hope they dont shift a touch north and instead of going through the straits she goes through S Fl

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z time

[gatorcane]

GFS 12Z model currently running....

Hanna East of Bahamas:

[gatorcane]

GFS is deepening Hanna at 60 hours -- still West movement, no SW turn yet.

[gatorcane]

GFS 12Z seems to be stalling Hanna just east of the Central Bahamas....at 72 hours.

[Bocadude85]

at 96hrs she is in the Bahamas driffting SW

[gatorcane]

at 114 hours she is in the Southern Bahamas bending more West:

[KWT]

The GFS really does like Hanna compared to what it was doing to Gustav until recently.

[gatorcane]

Heading for Cuba in 126 hours....

[HurricaneRobert]

Stay out of the Gomex!

[Bocadude85]

Hour 138 headed for the FL Keys/ Straits

[DESTRUCTION5]

Loos like she is over Sanibel area in 6 days..

[Blown Away]

Loos like she is over Sanibel area in 6 days..

IMO, that loop is to extreme, if Hanna moves in that general direction that SW loop will flatten out a little.

[Bocadude85]

Yup landfall in extreme south florida then up the west coast