SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[JonathanBelles]

Very interesting system. I'd say 45-50kts.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 FEB 2008 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 20:03:30 S Lon : 57:38:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 982.1mb/ 59.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Center Temp : -66.8C Cloud Region Temp : -61.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

[Sanibel]

Guess it wasn't finished. Must have touched favorability or SST's.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful cyclone!

[Cyclenall]

Unbelievible tropical cyclone. The organizion of it right now is nearly perfect. I'd guess it's at 50-55 knots 1 min winds.

[HURAKAN]

Unbelievible tropical cyclone. The organizion of it right now is nearly perfect. I'd guess it's at 50-55 knots 1 min winds.

Agree. Very concentrated ball of convection and excellent outflow.

[HURAKAN]

That's a large leap!!!

[Chacor]

That straight line lies.

[Crostorm]

[HurricaneRobert]

Unisys gets their positions only when JTWC releases them.

[Chacor]

Unisys gets their positions only when JTWC releases them.

Which is why I'm saying that's wrong. Anyhow, Meteo France should issue their next warning soon. Fully expect them to upgrade to a moderate TS.

[RattleMan]

580
WTIO22 FMEE 230626
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2008
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 044/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 23/02/2008 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0S / 56.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
FROM
THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE WITH
LOCALLY 35KT WINDS IN THIS SECTOR.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
21.4S / 54.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2008/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
23.4S / 52.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-HONDO REMAINS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM REACTING QUICKLY TO THE
ENVIRONMENT.

CONVECTION HAS REBUILT DURING THE NIGHT AND HAS TRACKED MORE
WESTWARDS
AS IT ACCELERATING.
LOCALLIZE 35 KT WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BY
GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=

[KWT]

I'd have thought that this system was stronger then 30kts even sing th 10 min sustained wind speeds, I'd have gone with 40-45kts to be honest given the deep convection and the obvious wrapping around the center of circulation but there you go I suppose!

[Squarethecircle]

MF is not trusting their eyes.

Although the storm looks quite a bit weaker now...

[Pedro Fernández]

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SMALL SYSTEM INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS ARE
NOW BEING DISTORTED BY THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION HAS WANED. SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVEMENT OVER COOLER
WATER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION
OVER WATER BY TAU 36. OVERALL, THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

Yesterday, the Warning Advice was pointing to the same thing: unfavourable environment for HONDO development, but here it is.

As you can read, today the text is similar.

[Chacor]

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HONDO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.9S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.8S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.8S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SMALL SYSTEM INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS ARE
NOW BEING DISTORTED BY THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION HAS WANED. SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVEMENT OVER COOLER
WATER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION
OVER WATER BY TAU 36. OVERALL, THE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//

[gigabyte89]

Well i'm from Mauritius... there were some pretty good gusts about 80-90km/h were recorded. It was around 4-7 am (GMT+4). Now It has further intensified and is now a moderate Tropical Stprm.

It is forecasted to hit la reunion shortly...



-----------------------------------
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
St Paul Road, Vacoas
Phone: + 230 686 1031, + 230 686 1032 Fax: + 230 686 1033 email: meteo@intnet.mu

WEATHER NEWS ISSUED AT 16H30 ON SATURDAY 23 FEBRUARY 2008.

GENERAL SITUATION :
'EX-HONDO' IS MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION.
AT 16H00, IT WAS CENTRED AROUND THE POINT 20.4 DEGREES SOUTH AND
55.8 DEGREES EAST AT ABOUT 170 KM ALMOST TO THE WEST OF MAURITIUS.
IT IS MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT
15 KM/H.CLOUDS BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS :
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY OVER THE WHOLE ISLAND WITH SHOWERS, LOCALLY
MODERATE AT TIMES AND ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG PATCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGH GROUNDS.

EAST NORTH EASTERLY GUSTS OF THE ORDER OF 65 KM/H ARE EXPECTED.

SEA WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH NORTH WESTERLY SWELLS.

IT IS ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE IN THE OPEN SES AND ALSO IN THE
LAGOONS.

THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE BETWEEN 20-22'C AND THE MAXIMUM
25-28'C OVER THE CENTRAL PLATEAU.
ELSEWHERE THE MINIMUM WILL BE BETWEEN 23-25'C AND MAXIMUM 29-31'C.

HIGH TIDE : TOMORROW AROUND 02H46 AND 14H49.
LOW TIDE : 20H31 AND TOMORROW AROUND 08H57 AND 20H48.

SUNRISE : 06H05.
SUNSET : 18H41

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE AT 16H00 THIS AFTERNOON: 1010
HECTOPASCALS.

[HURAKAN]

The magic didn't last much!!