ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ronjon]

Actually 94L looks more impressive tonight - its got deep convection persisting, good cyclonic turning, and banding features. Actually think we'll have Cristobal and Dolly by tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

What on earth is this little curved cluster here? Banding? Something else?

Interaction with the TUTT...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Frank P]

Latest IR loop shows distinct bands forming in the northern half of the system... this does not look like its getting any less impressive from the IR perspective



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[jhamps10]

Latest IR loop shows distinct bands forming in the northern half of the system... this does not look like its getting any less impressive from the IR perspective



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

yeah looks like we may see 2 tropical systems develop in the next 36 hours. also in the model thread, 00z Ships guidence has this thing with only 3-8kts of shear starting in 18 hours, sounds a wee bit small to me, but this thing is starting to get very interesting.

[GeneratorPower]

[Texas Snowman]

I understand what everyone is saying about 96L developing first, but I'm thinking that the dry air from the mainland to its west will give it some trouble, at least slowing down any spin up process.

Meanwhile, it appears to me that 94L is growing larger as a system as well as trying to spin a LLC down from mid-levels.

Just got a hunch about this 94L (it's held on despite length of time w/out development, proximity to SA coastline, forward speed, etc.). Whichever one (if either) of these gets named first, I would not be be surprised at all to have a Cat. 2 in the western Gulf this next week.

My .02 and I'm certainly no pro met.

[Texas Snowman]

Tried to post WV image of 26L from floater, but didn't do something right.

Sorry.

[Javlin]

While this mught be the GFDL for 96L and it does not a whole lot with it it has 94L heading for Galveston if my geography is correct.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

looks like a sling shot around the ULL maybe??

[wzrgirl1]

Outflow boundary?

[Ed Mahmoud]

While this mught be the GFDL for 96L and it does not a whole lot with it it has 94L heading for Galveston if my geography is correct.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

looks like a sling shot around the ULL maybe??

That is a coarser resolution outer grid. Wait for the 94L run to come up on the FSU model page.

[jhamps10]

Outflow boundary?

i don't think so. too much rotation I see, even if it is only at the mid levels.

[Recurve]

Tropical cyclones are not coffee, or jiffy pop. It'll take hours and hours and maybe days. There is no...NO...LLC that anyone has plotted. There is some harsh shear right ahead I think.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just saying to anyone who's blowing on the embers, it ain't gonna pop in the next 6-12 hours. I'd say 9 out of 10 of these don't go past squalls that ruin somebody's Jamaica vacation, not TCs overnight. If it becomes a TD by morning, it may not be a tropical storm before it finds land.

It is interesting all the tropical blooms out there now though...it's like terrible flowers opening everywhere on the ocean.

[Recurve]

What on earth is this little curved cluster here? Banding? Something else?

Interaction with the TUTT...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

That is a great sequence. Look at the ULL between 94 and 96 and what it's doing with them on each side.

[Ivanhater]

[wxsouth]

Here's the problem with all this speculation about 94L's organization. The recon data from the afternoon and the recent hires quickscat data both confirm that all of the convection and supposed mid-level circulation is well east of the actual wave axis. The wave axis (where the plane found the lowest pressures this afternoon) is already past 75W. There's not much chance of a sfc low developing well east of the wave axis under the deep convection.

Also, i suspect that the mid-level circulation is more of an optical illusion caused by the anticyclonic outflow aloft...which is nicely established...but not over the wave axis.

IMHO, the short term prospects for development are not good.

[TexasStorm]

Is it just me, or is the convection gone again.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

With the Bermuda High supposed to come back towards teh west, won't that keep the east GOM in the clear no matter how developed 94L gets?

-we're safe this time, right?

My personal call is SE TX, but look out Nola if it blows up tomorrow. Not a pro call, just what I see looking at the Highs/Lows around next week. (insert dislaimer here)

[Ptarmigan]

Still bears watching. You never know with these things.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Of course, that is if it even develops!

How old is that QuikSat?

[Derek Ortt]

cannot argue with the QS data

there is just not anything at the surface to develop at this time. Likely going to take at least 24-48 hours, if this develops at all