ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[green eyed girl]

New Orleans director of emergency management just broke in live on all the local channels. Yes, New Orleans has an emergency director.

EDIT: Wow... guy just said evacs will begin 82hrs before landfall. Christ... how?
EDIT again: he was referring to 82 hours plan goes into effect. 60 hours evac begins. Sorry for the confusion.

Now that, I can't even imagine!

[Sanibel]

The center could be skimming the coast with its eye if that motion I'm seeing of the eye bouncing in a glancing pass of Haiti is correct. Mattpetre may not know how close he came to being right. Or it is a mountian interaction illusion. It's possible Haiti and the High have sent it west.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Whatever the track motion is on the new NHC the track suggests NW towards W.LA it seems, I wonder how the energy markets will react to this new forecast?

If NHC track is in general ballpark, no reason to assume turn to right/North wouldn't continue. Straight line might be towards SW Louisiana, but trend could be farther East, and as a major, per NHC forecast. And travelling in the part of the Gulf with the highest oceanic heat content.

Need to hope Hispaniola disrupts Gustav so badly it can't intensify in the area with highest OHC.

Just speculation, at this point.

[SoupBone]

Whatever the track motion is on the new NHC the track suggests NW towards W.LA it seems, I wonder how the energy markets will react to this new forecast?

The new track if you extrapolate is central La. I know I'm being nitpicky but you're talking about a 65 mile stretch or so.

[Texas Snowman]

Well, all I can say is that the NHC's Sunday 2 p.m. forecast position is eerily similar to a certain Cat 5 Sunday position in late August 2005.

Whether Gus has a more northerly component to its movement on Sunday, I guess that will be the big question if it's in the neighborhood of its forecast position.

With the loop current apparently ahead of Gus, and a possible Sunday position south of NOLA, I can understand why people are beginning to jump in the Big Easy.

For now, still think that this will end up being a SE Texas storm somewhere near Galveston.

[KWT]

Problem is CZ this is at least 7 days from landfall there even on some of the fastest more easterly models and thats a lot of time for things to change.

Texas storm, indeed the NHC track goes right through the channel, its going to ave plenty of time given its small core to power up and become a strong major hurricane. don't expect the NHC to go much higher then what it is now until we see Gustav start strengthen again.

SoupBone, good point

[alienstorm]

Coming into Radar view in Cuba...

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[perk]

Whatever the track motion is on the new NHC the track suggests NW towards W.LA it seems, I wonder how the energy markets will react to this new forecast?

That's assuming there is no track adjustment from now to landfall.

[Wx_Warrior]

I just don't think Gustav goes straight up to Central Louisiana...I'm sticking with the high sticking around and Goosy going left into Corpus.

[Texas Snowman]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

[canegrl04]

Whatever the track motion is on the new NHC the track suggests NW towards W.LA it seems, I wonder how the energy markets will react to this new forecast?

Oil rose today on the news of a possible major hurricane in the Gulf by the weekend

[dwg71]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

JB is all over the place this year. Stick with NHC...

[KWT]

Ed, with such a small core and a good 72hrs over high heat content I suspect its going to do some sharp strengthening even if the core is somewhat disrupted.

canegrl04, thats what I suspected.

[Aquawind]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

No Surprise..yesterday ACCU had Miami in the direct hit. One hot spot area to another...

[alan1961]

:uarrow:

NHC appears to have removed the forecast points on the floater, I just checked 5 minutes ago. Track change?

been wondering about the disappearance of those trop points myself gator, been gone a long time now.

[jinftl]

That means evacuations could beginning thurs or fri...if not sooner...there goes labor day weekend in the Big Easy I had planned!

New Orleans director of emergency management just broke in live on all the local channels. Yes, New Orleans has an emergency director.

EDIT: Wow... guy just said evacs will begin 82hrs before landfall. Christ... how?
EDIT again: he was referring to 82 hours plan goes into effect. 60 hours evac begins. Sorry for the confusion.

Now that, I can't even imagine!

[gatorcane]

I wouldn't take Florida "off the hook" just yet, at least not the Panhandle. Models remain split on the ridging over the Gulf this weekend. The ridge is already located north of Gustav. That's why it's slowed down this morning - getting ready for its westerly turn. BIG question is whether or not the weakness in the ridge across the eastern Gulf (as GFS predicts) will materialize and allow Gustav to hook N-NNE toward the FL Panhandle or if the door will swing shut and force Gustav west to the Yucatan and possibly a final landfall in Mexico (my initial track yesterday). I just don't know now. All models do show high pressure remaining over TX/LA early next week, which would seem to rule out a TX/LA landfall. But models have been known to be wrong on their 7 day forecasts in the past.

Confidently, I'd say final landfall somewhere between about Veracruz and Tampa for now, with a spike of higher probabilities toward central/northern MX and another spike toward FL Panhandle.

Interestingly enough CLIMO generally agrees with your "spikes" and suggests Gustav either heads into the far Western GOM impacting Central LA or points West including Texas, Mexico, or the Yucatan OR Gustav heads into the Eastern GOM of pointes east including Florida.

Note: Forecasts should NOT be based on CLIMO and I just bring it up as a point of reference.

[Texas Snowman]

Six one way, 1/2 dozen the otherway.

From where I've been sitting, JB and the NHC were both right in the bulls-eye of the LRGV landfall of Dolly.

And last week, nobody - NHC included - did all that well with where Fay was going.

Given the westward trend of the models, I think that SE Texas or SW La is very much under the gun from this one. More of a Rita than a Katrina path.

Hopefully, nowhere close on the intensity of either.

We'll see, time will tell.

[Sanibel]

Thank you Alienstorm. Your Cuban radar clearly shows an eye crossing over the Hatian peninsula near 310 degrees or so. Skimming motion was land interaction illusion.

[KWT]

If you want a very good comparison in terms of the NHC track just take a look at Lili 2002, track IMO is nearly spot on to that if the NHC is right.

I'd have thought the media will really go crazy if the models show the same thing on Thursday when Gustav likely will go bang IMO...