ATL IKE: Models Discussion

mattpetre · #2841 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:17 am

dwg71 wrote:GFS 114HRs, south Texas - Corpus area??

If my 10+ day landfall prediction is within the small cone, I hope someone is ready to go have a beer after the storm is over and bars open back up. Heck even if it's wrong sounds good to me...

cape_escape · #2842 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:19 am

I'm pretty surprised how gusty it is here so soon, my chairs on the lani have been blown around a bit. We've had gusts of around 30 MPH according to NBC .

Duddy · #2843 Postby **Duddy** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:19 am

ok guys I'm at work on my iPhone, is my area in the clear yet?

mattpetre · #2844 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:21 am

Duddy wrote:ok guys I'm at work on my iPhone, is my area in the clear yet?

Sorry Duddy, magic 8 ball says "not looking too good" right now.

apocalypt-flyer · #2845 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:21 am

Absolutely not.

mattpetre · #2846 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:23 am

Sabanic wrote:
Duddy wrote:ok guys I'm at work on my iPhone, is my area in the clear yet?

Gosh no!! Ike is going to either hit South/Central or North Texas according to the board. Everyone else is off the hook

Lets not forget that everything all the way back to NOLA and down to Tampico is still possibly in play... Don't let guard down till it's at the 3 day point at least.

apocalypt-flyer · #2847 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:23 am

Sabanic wrote:
Duddy wrote:ok guys I'm at work on my iPhone, is my area in the clear yet?

Gosh no!! Ike is going to either hit South/Central or North Texas according to the board. Everyone else is off the hook

Careful, no one along the Texas/Louisiana coast line is 'off the hook'.

Ed Mahmoud · #2848 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:24 am

The GFS CRP area hit will flip South or North next run. Just feel it in the bones.

Humidity is finally back after a week long vacation. Potentially not a good sign, but we can't go much over a week w/o humidity in Houston, even with the Westerlies large and in charge.

Not as big Westerlies as a week ago, but still, 600 mb and above, Westerlies...

#2849 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:26 am

ROCK wrote:quote="Portastorm"]
Brent wrote:

Poor Ed ... he is trying so hard to hang on to his "Texas season over" proclamation.

Poor Houston. You're screwed either way.

Brent, thats the funniest post I have seen in quite awhile.... :lol:

[/quote]

This is NOT good. :eek:

southerngale · #2850 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:29 am

Sabanic wrote:
Duddy wrote:ok guys I'm at work on my iPhone, is my area in the clear yet?

Gosh no!! Ike is going to either hit South/Central or North Texas according to the board. Everyone else is off the hook

Please don't say stuff like that. People could read that and think it's true. Louisiana is still very much in play here.

mattpetre · #2851 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:29 am

Stormcenter wrote:This is NOT good.

I don't think any of us in the area or other coastal areas thinks it's good, but humor is going to help me a lot over the next 5 to 6 days... so I appreciate anything light we can do or say related to the storm for now. The models aren't very funny at all right now, so we might as well be. Doesn't mean we can't be prepared. I think I have enough water for about 3 months now... just keep buying it every time it's on sale.

dwg71 · #2852 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:30 am

GFS Landfall 120 Hours South Texas - Corpus Area.

What will GFDL and HWRF think

Is Euro back down this far yet?

Through to San Antonio and Central Texas...

Sabanic · #2853 Postby **Sabanic** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:32 am

We are also still in the cone which means with so much time ahead over water for Ike, you can bet we are watching him closely. Any landfall from SE/LA or east of that would be very bad for ours and neighboring areas. It's all still up ion the air.

KWT · #2854 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:32 am

Well I suspect the GFDL and HWRF will at least bend more to the west after this run has shifted quite far south, though I still am reminded of Rita and the way the models all said south Texas then slowly lifted up...however we are earlier in September so a south Texas hit is possible...

Sabanic · #2855 Postby **Sabanic** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:32 am

KWT wrote:Well I suspect the GFDL and HWRF will at least bend more to the west after this run has shifted quite far south, though I still am reminded of Rita and the way the models all said south Texas then slowly lifted up...however we are earlier in September so a south Texas hit is possible...

As is a hit anywhere along the LA coast

#2856 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:38 am

Ed, you and your westerlies ... sheesh. :roll:

Let's take a look at what the 12z GFS run says about the 500 mb level over Houston by 120 hours, shall we?

Wx_Warrior · #2857 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:38 am

This could be compared to Rita but it's not a Rita-type setup. Which Models point south? 1 run of the GFS. Remember EURO had Houston at 0z run. I could be wrong, but don't most models point upper texas coast, including NHC?

KWT · #2858 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:39 am

Yeah of course though models firming up on somewhere between Texas and LA at the moment and given Ike is going further and further west so of gives more creadence to the west gulf coast idea...

#2859 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:39 am

Next runs left from the 12z Global Models.

12z CMC (Canadian) at 1:00 PM
12z GFDL at 1:30 PM
12z HWRF at 1:30 PM
12z UKMET at 1:30 PM
12z NOGAPS at 2:00 PM
12z EURO at 2:30 PM

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

#2860 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:40 am

>>ok guys I'm at work on my iPhone, is my area in the clear yet?

I'm assuming this was just a sarcastic jab at those types of posts. No way is it possible that you, as a Category 1 Poster, would ask this question from SE Texas while a storm is over by Cuba. This is a storm-oriented forum where hopefully most of the members participate with respect for the knowledge of their fellow posters. A first time poster, yeah, you can understand. But...

Steve

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