Models have shifted west and west and west,.. I think its human nature that when they got near SE TX...we panic and say, they are done shifting. If GFS is an indicator of what is to come, it could very well be northern mexico/south texas.
Lets keep watching.
ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Steve, back in Golden Meadow?
My amateur gut (specifically my lower large intestine) still says Louisiana.
How is the post-Gustav electricity situation in case they evacuate the SE coastal parishes again? How will they power the gas pumps?
My amateur gut (specifically my lower large intestine) still says Louisiana.
How is the post-Gustav electricity situation in case they evacuate the SE coastal parishes again? How will they power the gas pumps?
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Wx_Warrior
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Bad news for Havana this shortcut is probably putting them on the strong side of the storm..
With Ike staying out over water longer this is going to mess up the intensity forecasts as well.
Did Ike roll west after landfall due to the fact that weakening storms tend to roll left? If so as he spins up over water he might roll right a little.
Lot of warm water between Cuba and Texas.
With Ike staying out over water longer this is going to mess up the intensity forecasts as well.
Did Ike roll west after landfall due to the fact that weakening storms tend to roll left? If so as he spins up over water he might roll right a little.
Lot of warm water between Cuba and Texas.
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Ivanhater
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Re:
dwg71 wrote:Models have shifted west and west and west,.. I think its human nature that when they got near SE TX...we panic and say, they are done shifting. If GFS is an indicator of what is to come, it could very well be northern mexico/south texas.
Lets keep watching.
Why not? Started curving to the carolinas and now models showing Deep south Texas..why would it all of a sudden stop in SE Texas...looking more and more likely this will be a Mexico or South texas storm if the trend continues..though if this hits between brownsville and corpus that is the least populated part of the gulfcoast, so if it had to go somewhere...best of the worst if you will...anyway good news possibly!...off to my next class
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HouTXmetro
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mattpetre
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Re:
HouTXmetro wrote:SOMEBODY PLEASE EXPLAIN THE MODELS SHIFTING EAST AT NIGHT AND WEST IN THE DAYTIME??? Same thing happened with Gustav.
According to Storm2K theory, the night shift lives in NOLA and the day shift in Houston...
Just my own take on -removed- humor. Could it be because highs are a bit stronger with daytime heating? Very uneducated guess...
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Re:
HouTXmetro wrote:SOMEBODY PLEASE EXPLAIN THE MODELS SHIFTING EAST AT NIGHT AND WEST IN THE DAYTIME??? Same thing happened with Gustav.
You need to watch the overall trend over the last few days.That trend has been generally west.
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lrak
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
I know its still way out but are you guys getting confident in saying it will hit below Port Lavaca?
Last edited by lrak on Mon Sep 08, 2008 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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southerngale
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
lrak wrote:Deep S. Tx why? I thought a trough or H pressure backing off was going to pull it towards Houston...I've got a huge deadline of tax returns due on Sept 15th...ACK..No time to board up...LOL
I know its still way out but are you guys getting confident in saying it will hit below Port Lavaca?
No confidence, yet. Models do appear to be going west and west and west, it has to stop somewhere - but the trend is more west.
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>>Steve, back in Golden Meadow?
I actually live in Lockport about 25 miles up the bayou (fish in Golden Meadow though). We got power turned back on yesterday and they're working their way down from our area (+/- 8 miles south of Highway 90 @ Highways 301 & LA1. We got back Thursday, but for whatever reason, it wasn't that bad or anything like what they had in Baton Rouge much further north and inland. There were some downed trees, downed power lines, roof and shed damage, mobile homes flipped and such, but it was about what you would expect from a high end TS or Cat 1.
>>My amateur gut (specifically my lower large intestine) still says Louisiana.
I'm not sure though convincing arguments could probably be made for landfall(s) between Mobile and the Yucatan. Best super early guess track would be 75 miles either side of the TX/LA state line with more weight given to a landfall farther south. We're in a weird pattern this year in some ways similar to what we saw in 2005. While some on here, from New Orleans fwiw, were saying the same things they said in 2005: "Cold fronts are coming down, season is over, early fall", there was one poster who was saying "WHOA! Take a step back. You are missing the big picture" Because they think these fronts will come through and set up a regime whereby nothing can penetrate this far west (at this latitude anyway) and they get support from posts delivered by barely acceptable "meteorologists" on weather forums (not talking about storm2k at all), they think they know what they're talking about. But like I warned everyone in Mid-August 2005 and again in Mid-August 2008, these 'fronts' weren't coming down to save the NGC from storms, they were part of the process that would make us all more susceptible than we had been since the early/hybrid season. And bingo, that's exactly what happened. AGAIN. Setup was slightly different between 2005 and 2008 as to how we got to late August, early September, but results are similar. Bermuda High reaches "summer high tide" via reinforcing surface high pressure coming down from Canada/Great Lakes/Rockies or whatever. Ridge builds further westward and takes hold at certain steering levels setting up the Gulf to be wide open as an alleyway for tropical systems migrating their way across the globe from east to west. And there you have the setup that brought the NW Gulf Rita in later September 2005. There you have the setup for Ike in mid-September 2008. It's not rocket science, but some posters get hung up on things they don't understand "East Coast Trough will protect the country this year." Well true, there was a multi-year pattern of east coast troughiness, but that didn't mean every storm was going to recurve to begin with. The key for being able to handicap the threats is to observe what happens as a weather pattern/season evolves and see where it's going. It's really not that hard at all. I couldn't do a simple algebra problem and don't have a lick of training in meteorology. I'm not even sure if I'm spelling it correctly. But I do know what to watch for and identify in July and early August to see where it is we are headed.
>>How is the post-Gustav electricity situation in case they evacuate the SE coastal parishes again? How will they power the gas pumps?
Gas is pretty available and everyone's got multiple 5-55 gallon cans/drums of petro on standby for generators and stuff. Shouldn't matter initially if we have a problem but later down the road (say 3-5 days of the aftermath), it could be ugly. I think most people can get out if they need to, but I haven't been Down the Bayou yet to really see what it is that's happening south of Galliano.
Steve
I actually live in Lockport about 25 miles up the bayou (fish in Golden Meadow though). We got power turned back on yesterday and they're working their way down from our area (+/- 8 miles south of Highway 90 @ Highways 301 & LA1. We got back Thursday, but for whatever reason, it wasn't that bad or anything like what they had in Baton Rouge much further north and inland. There were some downed trees, downed power lines, roof and shed damage, mobile homes flipped and such, but it was about what you would expect from a high end TS or Cat 1.
>>My amateur gut (specifically my lower large intestine) still says Louisiana.
I'm not sure though convincing arguments could probably be made for landfall(s) between Mobile and the Yucatan. Best super early guess track would be 75 miles either side of the TX/LA state line with more weight given to a landfall farther south. We're in a weird pattern this year in some ways similar to what we saw in 2005. While some on here, from New Orleans fwiw, were saying the same things they said in 2005: "Cold fronts are coming down, season is over, early fall", there was one poster who was saying "WHOA! Take a step back. You are missing the big picture" Because they think these fronts will come through and set up a regime whereby nothing can penetrate this far west (at this latitude anyway) and they get support from posts delivered by barely acceptable "meteorologists" on weather forums (not talking about storm2k at all), they think they know what they're talking about. But like I warned everyone in Mid-August 2005 and again in Mid-August 2008, these 'fronts' weren't coming down to save the NGC from storms, they were part of the process that would make us all more susceptible than we had been since the early/hybrid season. And bingo, that's exactly what happened. AGAIN. Setup was slightly different between 2005 and 2008 as to how we got to late August, early September, but results are similar. Bermuda High reaches "summer high tide" via reinforcing surface high pressure coming down from Canada/Great Lakes/Rockies or whatever. Ridge builds further westward and takes hold at certain steering levels setting up the Gulf to be wide open as an alleyway for tropical systems migrating their way across the globe from east to west. And there you have the setup that brought the NW Gulf Rita in later September 2005. There you have the setup for Ike in mid-September 2008. It's not rocket science, but some posters get hung up on things they don't understand "East Coast Trough will protect the country this year." Well true, there was a multi-year pattern of east coast troughiness, but that didn't mean every storm was going to recurve to begin with. The key for being able to handicap the threats is to observe what happens as a weather pattern/season evolves and see where it's going. It's really not that hard at all. I couldn't do a simple algebra problem and don't have a lick of training in meteorology. I'm not even sure if I'm spelling it correctly. But I do know what to watch for and identify in July and early August to see where it is we are headed.
>>How is the post-Gustav electricity situation in case they evacuate the SE coastal parishes again? How will they power the gas pumps?
Gas is pretty available and everyone's got multiple 5-55 gallon cans/drums of petro on standby for generators and stuff. Shouldn't matter initially if we have a problem but later down the road (say 3-5 days of the aftermath), it could be ugly. I think most people can get out if they need to, but I haven't been Down the Bayou yet to really see what it is that's happening south of Galliano.
Steve
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
I noticed shear was strong near texas on gfs run...Hope at least that is right.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
Sorry gale,
Was working on my post before you correctly IMHO steered everyone back to modeling.
/my bad.
Steve
Was working on my post before you correctly IMHO steered everyone back to modeling.
/my bad.
Steve
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deltadog03
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
WOW, GFS did a 180....hahah Well, def. have add this to the possibilities....
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gboudx
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
deltadog03 wrote:WOW, GFS did a 180....hahah Well, def. have add this to the possibilities....
Wow, north of Brownsville.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
If the GFS was at least a little consistent I'd take it more seriously. 00z showed Pensacola and it has been flip-flopping all over the place for days. Let's just wait and see until Ike makes it into the gulf before people get too excited. This will be a complicated forecast.
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lrak
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
gboudx wrote:deltadog03 wrote:WOW, GFS did a 180....hahah Well, def. have add this to the possibilities....
Wow, north of Brownsville.
Can you post a link for that please, I just can't seem to find all my model links at work.
Thank you
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
PT...It would have been a SETX/SWLA storm (0z run) but that trough picked Ike up.
Tuesday (Ike in GOM) hope, hope, hope, models won't flop (as much).
Tuesday (Ike in GOM) hope, hope, hope, models won't flop (as much).
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Sabanic
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion
PTrackerLA wrote:If the GFS was at least a little consistent I'd take it more seriously. 00z showed Pensacola and it has been flip-flopping all over the place for days. Let's just wait and see until Ike makes it into the gulf before people get too excited. This will be a complicated forecast.
One of the best posts I have seen all day. Ike has not done for the last 24 hours what he was supposed to do according to the NHC, and until he does, or at least makes it into the GOM the forecast is still up in the air.
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