ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Comanche]

>>What exactly does this mean for Future Fay? Will this impact steering one way or another?

Even though I don't think there's a chance in hell this would be a problem for Texas, you'd be talking late next week or next weekend based on the distance alone. That's too far out to be worried about the things that you should already have in place (kit, plans, place to go, etc.) should the need arise at some point later in the season.

JMO

Steve

Not worried about it coming as far west as Texas. I trade energy futures therefore it literally is the million dollar question as to whether this steers into the Gulf or not. If models start to jump on a more westward bend tomorrow, taking it into the gulf, the short market will explode.

[KWT]

Yeah I can see where Derek is coming from, because its so well wound up once it finally does get a decent LLC the momentum it already has, esp at the midlevels will allow for some breif rapid strengthening as the low level circulation catches up with the higher levels.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek,

Which Claudette? Wasn't there one in 1979 and one about five years ago?

Also, San Juan radar is beginning to show some interesting activity - I believe it is somewhere near Anguilla - on the long range.

2003

[Derek Ortt]

My notorious Aunt - the one who reported 26F in Dunedin FL this past January - just forwarded me an email from an alleged met in New Orleans. I don't know who this is or if it is truly valid - but anyway - here is his comment with my subsequent reply back to her below:

FROM A LOUISIANA WEATHER DUDE....TYPICALLY, HE IS SO CONFIDENT IN HIS PREDICTIONS:

THIS STORM DEFINITELY HAS A CLOSED LOW. ANYONE NOT DOWNCASTING CAN SEE THAT. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A CANE OUT OF THIS ONE. THE ONLY PERTINENT QUESTIONS NOW ARE 'HOW STRONG' AND 'WHERE'S IT GOING'.

THE INFORMATION COMING IN TO MY WEATHER OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS STILL INDICATES AN 80% PROBABILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE GOMEX. FLORIDA'S WEST COAST HAS MORE TO FEAR THAN ITS EAST COAST FROM THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER // STROMTOP

I just don't know about this.

I'd say chances in the Gulf are 50/50 and that would include path through Florida (instead of under it). I also think the East coast of FL is most at risk at this time, but if the ridge is stronger, there is definitely the Donna-like scenario to worry about. A small change in the pattern could yield a significant difference at what longitude the system will curve, ie., does it hit Miami-FLL or does it wait to curve and threaten Sarasota-Tampa? WAY too early to tell. In fact, a west-tracker into the GOM towards TX/LA is still on the table but not as likely (for now...).

One thing I can agree on is that it will be a hurricane and if it misses Hispaniola, it will almost certainly be a major. All of FL needs to pay attention to this right now, but I'd emphasize the Gold Coast (SE FL) for now.

Edited 5:01 to fix quotes and whatnot...

My reply:

The west coast of Florida ahs more to fear?

well... doesn't it have to hit the EC before hitting the WC based upon the expected motion?

[jlauderdal]

SJU radar starting to pick up that new burst at extreme long range......

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

server slow...probably getting pounded by the locals....grin!!

[lonelymike]

My notorious Aunt - the one who reported 26F in Dunedin FL this past January - just forwarded me an email from an alleged met in New Orleans. I don't know who this is or if it is truly valid - but anyway - here is his comment with my subsequent reply back to her below:

FROM A LOUISIANA WEATHER DUDE....TYPICALLY, HE IS SO CONFIDENT IN HIS PREDICTIONS:

THIS STORM DEFINITELY HAS A CLOSED LOW. ANYONE NOT DOWNCASTING CAN SEE THAT. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A CANE OUT OF THIS ONE. THE ONLY PERTINENT QUESTIONS NOW ARE 'HOW STRONG' AND 'WHERE'S IT GOING'.

THE INFORMATION COMING IN TO MY WEATHER OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS STILL INDICATES AN 80% PROBABILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE GOMEX. FLORIDA'S WEST COAST HAS MORE TO FEAR THAN ITS EAST COAST FROM THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER // STROMTOP

My reply:

I just don't know about this.

I'd say chances in the Gulf are 50/50 and that would include path through Florida (instead of under it). I also think the East coast of FL is most at risk at this time, but if the ridge is stronger, there is definitely the Donna-like scenario to worry about. A small change in the pattern could yield a significant difference at what longitude the system will curve, ie., does it hit Miami-FLL or does it wait to curve and threaten Sarasota-Tampa? WAY too early to tell. In fact, a west-tracker into the GOM towards TX/LA is still on the table but not as likely (for now...).

One thing I can agree on is that it will be a hurricane and if it misses Hispaniola, it will almost certainly be a major. All of FL needs to pay attention to this right now, but I'd emphasize the Gold Coast (SE FL) for now.

Edited 5:01 to fix quotes and whatnot...

Dude Stormtop is a notorious troll from the W-underground site. This guy was last seen before Katrina fleeing from his trailer in Plaqumann parish. Tell your aunt not to pay any attention to this yahoo.

[Aric Dunn]

you all know if this does become a hurricane in the bahamas that in just 2 to 3 days evacuations in south florida and the keys must start right?

[jasons2k]

Dude Stormtop is a notorious troll from the W-underground site. This guy was last seen before Katrina fleeing from his trailer in Plaqumann parish. Tell your aunt not to pay any attention to this yahoo.

See - I'm so loyal to S2K I had no idea

Sorry for the "spam" - as you can see my reply was pretty skeptical

[SouthFLTropics]

Derek, AFM, Nexrad-

If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

That won't change anything. However, there's a chance the northerly turn could come before Florida, over south Florida, or just west of the Peninsula. There's nothing to steer it west of 85W. Winds across the NW Gulf will be from the west in the mid to upper levels.

Wxman you bring up a good point, folks along the SW Coast of Florida and even W coast of florida....better yet anybody from the Eastern GOM to Bahamas could be in the threat zone. The northernly turn will prove difficult to forecast accurately especially this far out.

One other thing to keep in mind will be the angle of attack from the South...An storm approaching like the models are showing will be very difficult to predict an exact landfall point. I'm afraid that a lot of people could be affected by this system.

[physicx07]

Yeah, I don't think I buy 'STORMTOP's (the 'met' from New Orleans) analysis. It would be difficult for this to happen through the Florida straights missing the east coast. I personally believe a GOM storm after Florida is not crazy talk, despite the model tracks. Someone mentioned earlier that the storm may prop up the high to the north, and I can believe that. I do think it will slow down near E coast Florida though while it drifts north or west or whatever it ends up doing until the ridge strengthens over the southeast.

[Derek Ortt]

after looking again... this may still be 12-24 hours away from forming, if it stays over water (much to my surprise)

the latest convective bursts are not quite as concentrated as the one from last evening.

not sure why the LLC did not form under the deep convection today. Quite a surprise to me

[Steve]

>>Not worried about it coming as far west as Texas. I trade energy futures therefore it literally is the million dollar question as to whether this steers into the Gulf or not. If models start to jump on a more westward bend tomorrow, taking it into the gulf, the short market will explode.

Ah, yeah you rite. Do me a favor and short a bunch of offers so that my weekly gas bill can go down from the > $200 that is currently killing me. But yeah, in my mind, another major threat to the Gulf will probably happen at some point this year. Good luck with the futures and sorry about the thread jack.

Steve

[KWT]

I wonder whether that circulation further west was just a little too dominant to allow surface pressures to fall further east in the convection. I think when the western circulation hits PR it'll weaken to the point where a MLC can finally develop a LLC.

[NEXRAD]

To answer some previous questions I noted...

The exact location that the full blown low-level center forms (in conjunction with the mid-level center) doesn't really matter for the future track. A tropical cyclone is a multi-level convective system that will be steered based on the whole of its circulation core and its convection. Therefore, the overall path won't change unless the center were to somehow develop far north or far south of the current convection (which would completely stump the model guidance in that case). Such a scenario is very unlikely in my opinion.

Currently, the mid-level circulation is very apparent on satellite imagery and is closer now to where I'd pin the low-level center (vicinity of 18N, 63.5W) based on 21Z surface observations. Over the next few hours the low level center and mid level center will likely become more aligned as the more western convection starts to dominate. Of note... the 18Z NAM and GFS are still right with 92L's future track, with these models keeping the system well east of Florida.

- Jay

[Derek Ortt]

pressures in the convection were 6mb lower than in that MLC, based upon the AF and NOAA data

[physicx07]

Yes, I think it could be drifting slowly near the FL coast (east or west coast), and if it happens to be moving north rather than west as it drifts that would be a major problem for tons of folks.

That won't change anything. However, there's a chance the northerly turn could come before Florida, over south Florida, or just west of the Peninsula. There's nothing to steer it west of 85W. Winds across the NW Gulf will be from the west in the mid to upper levels.

One other thing to keep in mind will be the angle of attack from the South...An storm approaching like the models are showing will be very difficult to predict an exact landfall point. I'm afraid that a lot of people could be affected by this system.

[/quote]

[KWT]

Yeah thats what I was thinking as well Derek but it was at the very least mainly closed and I suppose its enough to prevent any decent spin kicking off further east, really though anything could have happened I suppose!

[TexasSam]

here a much faster version of the PR radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=jua

Might not be as good to look at, but much faster...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this don't form and it goe's over DR/Hati we can say next for this. I still expect it to scrap the northern coast, but that will cut the inflow off.

Seriously the last handfull of invests have not done good. It is against my understanding of anything that this did not develop a LLC today.

I say I'm just going to step away from the computer, because I do not wish to argue with this system as I'm balancing my head off the table!

[Aric Dunn]

take a look at this..

and click the little button that say "surface" its quite clear from the observations that the LLC is still the one i have and a few others have mentioned all day... the MLC is done for and new convection is beginning to fire over that center. its still quite a few hours from a depression at least closed wind field wise.. but in all likely hood just ese of PR near St croix is where to watch over the next few hours.. as it move west to slightly north of west .

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0