ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RL3AO]

Theres what I see.

[HURAKAN]

[funster]

If this don't form and it goe's over DR/Hati we can say next for this. I still expect it to scrap the northern coast, but that will cut the inflow off.

Seriously the last handfull of invests have not done good. It is against my understanding of anything that this did not develop a LLC today.

I say I'm just going to step away from the computer, because I do not wish to argue with this system as I'm balancing my head off the table!

Don't worry - if it does fall to pieces before it even gets going that will be a good thing. We don't really want a giant destructive hurricane headed toward the East Coast. I don't Florida residents are eager to do another Floyd-like dash out of South Florida either but I'm sure they will if they have to.

[O Town]

[RL3AO]

Don't worry - if it does fall to pieces before it even gets going that will be a good thing. We don't really want a giant destructive hurricane headed toward the East Coast. I don't Florida residents are eager to do another Floyd-like dash out of South Florida either but I'm sure they will if they have to.

Its never good for anything, including a tropical wave, to hit Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

take a look at this..

and click the little button that say "surface" its quite clear from the observations that the LLC is still the one i have and a few others have mentioned all day... the MLC is done for and new convection is beginning to fire over that center. its still quite a few hours from a depression at least closed wind field wise.. but in all likely hood just ese of PR near St croix is where to watch over the next few hours.. as it move west to slightly north of west .



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

oh also click on the 1km vis top right

[KWT]

If thats the center Aric its heading for a nice meeting with PR and probably a chunk of DR...don't think land will make much of a difference mind you, at least PR won't anyway I don't think given this has not even a trace of an inner core so not much to weaken really anyway.

That center you mentioned probably is still the center...even though pressure was pretty high around 1010-1011mbs there which suggests its a very weak system indeed.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't care!

Yes the LLC would likely form farther west near the "wind shift", this system only has about 12-18 more hours.

[Aric Dunn]

already starting .. radar is beginning to show a few signs cant say for sure but a few hours radar will tell the story

[KWT]

Still even if nothing comes from this for a little while the maion energy should track probably between 280-290, its probably going to eventually enter water again even if it does end up tracking over a decent amount of land.

[RL3AO]

Huge burst over the possible LLC that recon found.

[canegrl04]

So its formation is in doubt now? Its running out of time,and water.Its been so slow to develope

[CourierPR]

Aric, is that green backward C above the orange yellow convection the center?

[KWT]

Aric, that big burst is still clearly on the MLC if you watch your loop on that website (very good site that one by the way)

That eddy/LLC you've been tracking is still to the west of that big burst but its getting closer, the energy is transferring it seems westwards, I believe that swirl you've been watching is now heading towards PR and will certainly be inland within 6hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, is that green backward C above the orange yellow convection the center?

no.. we have no real well defined center ..
what that is is a midlevel circualtion

[Dynamic]

Huge burst over the possible LLC that recon found.

Where is the possible LLC that the recon found? May you illustrated it or give coordinates?

Thanks!

[Derek Ortt]

remember, the GFDL had this over Hispaniola for a good while

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, that big burst is still clearly on the MLC if you watch your loop on that website (very good site that one by the way)

That eddy/LLC you've been tracking is still to the west of that big burst but its getting closer, the energy is transferring it seems westwards, I believe that swirl you've been watching is now heading towards PR and will certainly be inland within 6hrs.

nope.. im watching it take shape on radar.. still east of PR ..

but yeah will probably be over it later..

i never said it was going to be the final llc ( if at all) just that convection is starting to fire over it.. which it is...

[RL3AO]

Where is the possible LLC that the recon found? May you illustrated it or give coordinates?

Thanks!

About 18N, 64W