Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[KWT]

Yep indeed Ivanhater, the ECM didn't do a bad job with Fay's track in the end at mid range so it will be interesting to see what happens, though from what I remember in previous seasons it has a left bias.

[SouthFloridawx]

I like the fact that they don't use a line in the center of the cone. I'm wondering if maybe the nhc public maps should be more like this, as it would cause more people to get ready in the swath rather than people directly in the "line". I think people really pay attention to that line...

Dean, have you looked at TWC projected path...they seem to have adjusted theirs more southward since this morning...I thought they towed the "party line" and basically used the NHC's but I don't see where the NHC has made any adjustments to their forecast track...I could be wrong but if you haven't already looked at it

They haven't been. I watched the tropical update last night (website) and they predicted a coast hugger or turn before the coast unlike the track of the NHC.

[Ivanhater]

oh God...word is Euro showing sub 970 just south of Mobile

[oyster_reef]

link?

[Wx_Warrior]

Some pros disagree with EURO saying way too strong at the end....If pans out, good luck Central/East GOM....That stinks!

Edit for EURO link:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081312!!/

[stormy1970al]

oh God...word is Euro showing sub 970 just south of Mobile

And I am praying that one is wrong because I am South of Mobile. Eek!

[Ivanhater]

link?

Free output should be out any minute, some pros out there have access to the higer resolution now which is nto available to the public

[PTrackerLA]

Ivanhater, just out of curiousity, what other site are you getting that information from? IM

IMO, Fay would have to track a good 30NM south of the current GFS track in order to become sub 970.

[Stormcenter]

oh God...word is Euro showing sub 970 just south of Mobile

That's a pipe dream unless she moves south into the GOM for some 300 miles and then heads north toward Mobile...then maybe but that doesn't take into account what the upper level winds will be like.

[oyster_reef]

south of mobile like just offshore?
50 miles out? In Mobile bay?

[GeneratorPower]

I don't see how it could POSSIBLY be that strong. The ECMWF really is a great model and is usually spot-on, but how can it be showing sub 970s with such a short time off the coast? I just don't see that happening.

[Sabanic]

Ivanhater, just out of curiousity, what other site are you getting that information from? IM

IMO, Fay would have to track a good 30NM south of the current GFS track in order to become sub 970.

Would you have thought she would have done and is doing what she is? Seriously 30NM would not be that much.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It moves it out N of Tampa and as Ivan say has landfall in Mobile 970 or so...Just checked the accu-prosite..

[Stormcenter]

It moves it out N of Tampa and as Ivan say has landfall in Mobile 970 or so...Just checked the accu-prosite..

Now that I have to see to believe.

[Dean4Storms]

It is possible, a already developed closed low moving of into the NE GOM moving west around 10-15mph crossing over mid/upper 80 SST's and just a fairly favorable UL environ. could do what the Euro suggest.

Shoot we had Hurricane Earl in 99 with 100mph winds being sheared like mad make landfall near PC Bch.

[PTrackerLA]

Ivanhater, just out of curiousity, what other site are you getting that information from? IM

IMO, Fay would have to track a good 30NM south of the current GFS track in order to become sub 970.

Would you have thought she would have done and is doing what she is? Seriously 30NM would not be that much.

Not really , this has been quite a storm to follow! But yeah you're right, it isn't much but would keep the center from getting onshore until Alabama or so. Still have to watch carefully but I feel better about this not re-intensifying much in the gulf given the latest GFS run. Now the Euro, which I respect greatly, is still reason for concern.

[KWT]

The ECM must see some pretty impressive, have to admit I don't think that solution will happen, however that model has been very stubborn indeed on that set-up occuring so who knows, Fay has been a bit of a pain the whole time so who knows?

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO...OT: Hola Gustavo Mendoza!!!!!

[N2Storms]

[quote="Wx_Warrior"]Some pros disagree with EURO saying way too strong at the end....If pans out, good luck Central/East GOM....That stinks!

Edit for EURO link:

[url]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081312!!/[/url][/quote]



I can see a potential coast hugger scenario but I'm not at all convinced that Fay is going to spend nearly enough time over water (if at all) to get that wound up. In fact, until I see a pronounced movement to the west, I'm not going to bite on any of the GOM scenarios...I think there is still too many atmospheric variables at play to be able to put any amount of confidence into any one model vs another

[Thunder44]

12z Euro out to 96hrs so far. Fay is well out in the GOM, which I guess why it's so much stronger on this run:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html