ATL: IKE Discussion

[Windy]

Check the models thread -- GFS doesn't turn it at all through 144 hours. It's halfway to the TexMex border by then. Of course that's way too far out to be reliable, but that's quite a shift west from the original recurve projection.

[AZRainman]

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS 00 UTC run just in, landfall Eastern Cuba at 54 hours and further SW at 60 hours.

What is going on?

I'm thinking the Yucatan may be the next spot the models go to

Well, you might be right gator. Afterall, the tip of the Yukatan is the cone as well, so having it cross the Yukatan is always a possibility....

[ConvergenceZone]

GFDL is not verifying.

Something is verified by the actual track, and not by a newer model. 18z gfdl is still missing to the south of actual points.

Well, if the track keeps shifting southwest, then Texas and points west of Texas could possibilty be in the longterm path as well, but again, we will just need to watch and see if this trend continues...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Check the models thread -- GFS doesn't turn it at all through 144 hours. It's halfway to the TexMex border by then. Of course that's way too far out to be reliable, but that's quite a shift west from the original recurve projection.

Ridge is breaking down, and Ike is starting to head North, hour 168. GFS also shows 20 knot+ Northerly winds at 250 mb over Ike, so if that verifies, Ike would not bounce back quickly from Cuba.

Texas is spared. Just a model.

[Siberian Express]

Seen your posts Sanibel over the past few days. You nailed it about the GFDL.

NHC should go even more left at 5am. I've done my job. I think we are getting closer to being in the clear.

This is why I kept saying watch GFDL all day yesterday. I'm giving myself credit for that. My reasoning appears to be correct about GFDL nailing the SW dip outliers in 2008.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[BocaGirl]

If this hits Cuba, and this is becoming more likely with the model trends, the bigger question will then turn to the synoptics in the Gulf. Gustav was only over Cuba for a few hours and never recovered because of the relatively unfavorable regime right up until final landfall.

Bottom line: assuming Ike is impacted by Cuba, the question is whether or not it will have a favorable environment waiting for it as it emerges into the Gulf.

Wait. Are you saying that hurricanes are political? That they don't like Fidel and Raoul Castro?
Who knew.

(Sorry, just a little joke late at night.)

BocaGirl
Barbara

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm certainly no pro. But the current WV loop from NHC Atlantic wide view supports my conclusion. Am I wrong?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

You are using the broadest possible map with the worst type of imagery to determine movement, so its easy to be misled. That massive sw motion you see is the brief collapse of some convection in the northern semicircle of the storm. It is building back, and if you pay attention to the frames where the eye is visible, then the motion of just south of due west is pretty clear.[/quote]

Kewl, Thanks for the tip. So I should use close up IR imagery with the lat and lon on. Correct?[/quote]
Yup. much better choice. btw wow...ike looks terrible now. He looks like a low 2 or high 1 right now, but give him time and hell come back with vengence.

[thetruesms]

Kewl, Thanks for the tip. So I should use close up IR imagery with the lat and lon on. Correct?

lat/lon is a necessity - it's too easy to get lost, especially in open ocean without having some kind of guide there

[Ptarmigan]

So...is Texas out of the way on this one? What are westerlies..sorry if I dont know..I have seen this set up before..the high is holding and a track to Brownsville..then lo an behold...Houston...then BMT/PA...2005...remember that storm?

Hurricane Rita! That sure caused a scare for us. The biggest since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

[ConvergenceZone]

LOL. One of the mets on TV tonight made a good point, he stated "We really don't know where Ike is going to go if it gets in the Gulf, but anyone who lives in Mexico all the way East to Florida, needs to watch Ike, until we have a better idea of it's eventual landfall".....

Just shows ya that they aren't even sure.....

[attallaman]

My Dad lives in Tuscaloosa,Alabama and told me tonight that the south bound traffic on I-20/I-59 was bumper to bumper with Louisiana cars headed home. I can't imagine their shock and frustration if they have to turn around and leave again!!

They won't!

Are you that sure that residents from NOLA and the surrounding areas won't be threatened by Ike which would force yet another major evacuation? Are you that sure of that tonight?

[GoneBabyGone]

My Dad lives in Tuscaloosa,Alabama and told me tonight that the south bound traffic on I-20/I-59 was bumper to bumper with Louisiana cars headed home. I can't imagine their shock and frustration if they have to turn around and leave again!!

They won't!

Are you that sure that residents from NOLA and the surrounding areas won't be threatened by Ike which would force yet another major evacuation? Are you that sure of that tonight?

No he's not sure.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

If it follows some of those paths and either the turn north is more gradual or it goes more west before the turn north...



Look familiar?

[Jagno]

My Dad lives in Tuscaloosa,Alabama and told me tonight that the south bound traffic on I-20/I-59 was bumper to bumper with Louisiana cars headed home. I can't imagine their shock and frustration if they have to turn around and leave again!!

They won't!

Are you that sure that residents from NOLA and the surrounding areas won't be threatened by Ike which would force yet another major evacuation? Are you that sure of that tonight?

I don't think he is suggesting that they won't be threatened. He is saying that in his opinion they won't leave again. At least that's how I understood it.

However, what most are not understanding is that there are still many who haven't returned yet due to the electricity and sewage backup problems that are ongoing. I spoke to a family today that still has not been able to return because their home in Gretna is still having major sewage problems.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, based upon the low amount of people on tonight, and with IKE not having another track update until 2:00 AM pacific time, this thread is pretty much dead until morning, so off to bed, and I"m sure Ike will give us more suprises tomorrow....

[bighaben]

Eep, I really hope this storm dosen't hit Louisana, at work tonight I had a small group of people stocking up on dry ice, and ice before returning to their homes, still without power even now. They were really worried about how the next few days were going to turn out for them. I'd hate for them to have to turn around and just come back with this storm on the way just as they were starting to pick up after Gustav.

Sorry Florida, I have to say I really hope this storm hits you, becuase I really don't want it to hit me. Lets all hope for the best, and it pulls a surprise and spins out to sea like the models were trying to suggest a few days ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like this storm is getting the holy hell kicked out of it by shear. Recon data only shown 103 knots or .8=82.4 knots at the surface, SMRF shown 83-84 knots at the surface. Based on this data it is now around 85 knots=100 mph. This is now a cat2.

Now models dow forecast the environement to become more favorable over the next few days, so I expect it to go through another IRC.

[Stormcenter]

Eep, I really hope this storm dosen't hit Louisana, at work tonight I had a small group of people stocking up on dry ice, and ice before returning to their homes, still without power even now. They were really worried about how the next few days were going to turn out for them. I'd hate for them to have to turn around and just come back with this storm on the way just as they were starting to pick up after Gustav.

Sorry Florida, I have to say I really hope this storm hits you, becuase I really don't want it to hit me. Lets all hope for the best, and it pulls a surprise and spins out to sea like the models were trying to suggest a few days ago.

I wouldn't worry about Ike.

[Meso]

Eclipse Over

[southerngale]

Eep, I really hope this storm dosen't hit Louisana, at work tonight I had a small group of people stocking up on dry ice, and ice before returning to their homes, still without power even now. They were really worried about how the next few days were going to turn out for them. I'd hate for them to have to turn around and just come back with this storm on the way just as they were starting to pick up after Gustav.

Sorry Florida, I have to say I really hope this storm hits you, becuase I really don't want it to hit me. Lets all hope for the best, and it pulls a surprise and spins out to sea like the models were trying to suggest a few days ago.

I wouldn't worry about Ike.

Really? Enlighten us... where is it going?




bighaben... I understand you not wanting a visit from Ike. I think you could say that though, without telling Floridians you want it to hit them.