ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[Thunder44]

I believe there is low center trying to form on the 17N lattitude (southern edge of the convection). Does anybody else agree with that assessment?

I agree, in the area of 16.5-17N/ 42-43W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Look at closer loop. I see a LLC centered near 14.5N 43W, moving westward. It's very elongated from SSW to NNE and it well south of that convection. It looks there is some shear out of the SSE over the system. I don't see another center forming further north.

[Just Joshing You]

97L is looking pretty good and chances for development are increasing imo.

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS impressive considering the dry air and time of the day.

[Blown Away]

I believe there is low center trying to form on the 17N lattitude (southern edge of the convection). Does anybody else agree with that assessment?

I agree, in the area of 16.5-17N/ 42-43W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Look at closer loop. I see a LLC centered near 14.5N 43W, moving westward. It's very elongated from SSW to NNE and it well south of that convection. It looks there is some shear out of the SSE over the system. I don't see another center forming further north.

It does appear there is a slight rotation just below 15N/43W, the last frame especially. Good eye.

[catastrophic]

the convextion is still building to the north of the circulation
[img][/img]

[wzrgirl1]

My concern is down the road it pulling a jeanne (i think that was the storm)....where it did a loop and came back and hit the east coast of florida...i wonder if the synoptics down the road favor that scenario or not...

[HURAKAN]

[Just Joshing You]

Looks like it has a broad LLC, also looks like its tightening. Depression soon?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like an impressive little fellow given the conditions. Could become a depression, with shear staying at least marginally favorable and SST's increasing as it moves westward. I'd expect another mention by the 8pm TWO, the NHC might want to wait to see if this persists.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like it has a broad LLC, also looks like its tightening. Depression soon?

Except for the shear and dry air, maybe.





The Southern circulation, has much better shear conditions. But is a little light on ,ow level convergence.

[GCANE]

Buoy 41041 at 14.4N 46W is showing winds out of the NE. That suggests to me that the center of the surface-circulation is to the south-east of it.

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_p ... tion=41041

[gatorcane]

So I'm curious what the NHC is going to say about this feature for the 2pm EST TWO....?

Looks to be gradually organizing albeit shear and dry air should keep "development, if any, to be slow to occur."

[gatorcane]

Sticks out like a soar thumb in the central Atlantic:

[wzrgirl1]

what do you all think about the loop scenario I suggested above?

[vbhoutex]

I've looked at a couple of different sat loops on this one and I still only see a broad circulation. There may be a few mini vortices within that broad circulation from time to time but I didn't see one while I was looking. Possibly the increasing convection will spark something, but imo it has a long ways to go to what I classify as a LLCC.

[gatorcane]

what do you all think about the loop scenario I suggested above?

A loop could happen if a system gets pulled N by a weakness (e.g. from a short-wave trough) but the trough does not completely catch the system and a ridge builds in from the NW behind the trough pushing the system west again.

I see no evidence of such a situation with 97L and even so its so long out (like 7-10 days) and so many IFs (like will 97L even develop) that I haven't thought much about it. Are you seeing something with the long-range synoptics that may suggest a loop?

[GCANE]

I think I see why there is a discepency between the position of the surface-low and where the convection is firing.

CIMSS seems to show circulation up to the 500mb geo-potential height. At that altitude, it is centered at 18N. That is where condensation of the air-parcels are occuring.

The air-parcels are lifted from and near the surface at around 12N; but move in a generally north direction as they circulate around the center. The center moves north with altitude. The air-parcels finally condense around 500mb.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 251736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY...LOCATED INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO
BORDER ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF PRESIDIO TEXAS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1300
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE MAY MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[gatorcane]

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Indeed the NHC outlook is what I thought they would say. Upper-level environment is not good now but will be in a couple of days but notice they are suggesting a NW movement by then...

97L does have fish written all over it. I'm sticking with my W to WNW movement for about 3-5 days followed by a gradual NW bend and gradual development. Should comfortably miss the NE Leewards by several hundred miles (like at least 300-400) to the NE and bend East of Bermuda. A 99% chance of fish