ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[hurrican19]

I don't consider Galveston SETX, but others not living here consider it.

uh, Galveston is only 60 miles west of Orange County, and you don't consider that SETX? What DO You consider them? They are just as much SETX as we are..

[Stratosphere747]

Fairly decent shift and would expect a track adustment at 4.

[Air Force Met]

I don't consider Galveston SETX, but others not living here consider it.

Holding tongue.

[jasons2k]

At one point 6 big models (yeah I counted them) including UKMET, GFDL, and GFS showed SE Florida as the bullseye for Ike about 5 days out. Look what happened, models kept shifting away from Florida and Southern Florida just barely was in the 3 day cone (for about one advisory)...That said, if Texas is lucky, Ike will pass quietly by and not affect you. It seems Ike is thoroughly confusing the models

Missing a trough vs. rounding a ridge are two completely different scenarios. One (the latter) is much more straightforward than the other. It's just not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Now yes, if Ike does move along faster than progged and the ridge never collapses on the west periphery, then yes we could be looking at a far S. TX threat - maybe - maybe even Mexico. But the reverse (somehow Ike pulling north to MS/AL) is highly, highly unlikely. It's not going to plow north into the ridge. That much we know.

[gatorcane]

At one point 6 big models (yeah I counted them) including UKMET, GFDL, and GFS showed SE Florida as the bullseye for Ike about 5 days out. Look what happened, models kept shifting away from Florida and Southern Florida just barely was in the 3 day cone (for about one advisory)...That said, if Texas is lucky, Ike will pass quietly by and not affect you. It seems Ike is thoroughly confusing the models

Missing a trough vs. rounding a ridge are two completely different scenarios. One (the latter) is much more straightforward than the other. It's just not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Now yes, if Ike does move along faster than progged and the ridge never collapses on the west preiphery, then yes we could be looking at a far S. TX threat - maybe - maybe even Mexico. But the reverse (somehow Ike pulling north to MS/AL) is highly, highly unlikely. It's not going to plow north into the ridge. That much we know.

your best bet is if Ike misses to the South or goes through Mexico. It's possible for sure but I agree missing by plowing north through the ridge is less likely.

[perk]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Right now Im leaning to South Texas..the trough progression just looks like its not going to be enough to break the ridge down very much...good news for the north gulfcoast from Houston to Pensacola for sure!

Ivanhater there is a couple of points you're missing, and that is Ike is supposed to be a large hurricane with a large windfield. Another point is quite a few of the models show Ike turning north shortly after landfall, so if it comes in south of Houston that can't be good, plus Jeff said yesterday in his email update that if the focal point turns out to be further south that would concern him because alot of landfalling GOM hurricanes come in north of the NHC forecast.

[AJC3]

I don't consider Galveston SETX, but others not living here consider it.

Holding tongue.

It's interesting...not being from around there, I could never figure out how one differentiates one part of the coast from another as far as being in "SE Texas" To me, the entire coastline is along the SE part of the state as a whole.

If I was dubbed "king of geography" for a day...I'd call the areas...

from Port O'Connor to Brownsville the "lower Texas coast"
Galveston Bay to Port O'Connor the "mid Texas coast"
Sabine Pass to Galveston Bay the "upper Texas coast"

But that's just the perspective of an outside observer.

[Portastorm]

You know, a major landfalling hurricane (assuming it is moving in at a west-northwest to northwest trajectory) coming in at Corpus and slightly to the northeast of Corpus would be a worst-case scenario for a lot of reasons. Houston, of course, will be in the dreaded northeast quadrant. Inland areas anywhere along and east of I-35 and along and north and south of I-10 would experience tornadoes, significant flooding, not mention inland wind effects. The list goes on and on ... I so hope this doesn't verify.

[Steve]

>>I'm sick of all the snippy comments toward one another, almost like some people NOT in Texas are upset it could be headed for Texas.

Believe it. Why people get so bitter or possessive with their state getting the landfall is unbelievable. But yet model change after model change, storm after storm, season after season there are people who get downright ugly about that aspect of storm tracking. Sometimes it even happens between people in the same state (recent example was dean4america vs. sanibel in a much-nicer-than-usual Florida vs. Florida battle that Sanibel owned on). It's crazy, IMHO. Sure the adrenaline rush is great when you realize you've got to man-up and do what you need to do to protect life and property. But that usually fizzles out by the time you get stuck in a 16 hour commute to Austin (last weekend) or come home to nothing left of your memories. They'll all learn some day. I used to be the ultimate wc'r hoping and praying for any tropical action. Heh. Funny how life has a way of evening up the score sometimes.

Steve

[dwg71]

You know, a major landfalling hurricane coming in at Corpus and slightly to the northeast of Corpus would be a worst-case scenario for a lot of reasons. Houston, of course, will be in the dreaded northeast quadrant. Inland areas anywhere along and east of I-35 and along and north and south of I-10 would experience tornadoes, significant flooding, not mention inland wind effects. The list goes on and on ... I so hope this doesn't verify.

A storm coming in at corpus would not be devestating to Houston, far enough to be removed from Hurricane force winds more than likely. Depending on the angle, effects could be minimal.

[deltadog03]

Ok, here is my take on this monday afternoon....Lets look at the euro...
12z run YESTERDAY for SAT morn.....




Ok, notice that the trof that helps nudge up ike is further back west....Has ike getting ready to move north....now....

Here is TODAYS 12z EURO...




Ok, I notice that the ridge breaks down a bit quicker and I think thats because the Trof, very near denver, is stronger and a bit quicker then the old run. This run would be moving north and prolly make landfall just east of houston/galveston.

I still think this has a Rita type hook north in him.

[Wx_Warrior]

Tick for tack now huh? You said tomato, I say tomatoe. I used to live there and I didn't call it SETX. Get over it people. Moving west, no its not...Moving east.

[Portastorm]

You know, a major landfalling hurricane coming in at Corpus and slightly to the northeast of Corpus would be a worst-case scenario for a lot of reasons. Houston, of course, will be in the dreaded northeast quadrant. Inland areas anywhere along and east of I-35 and along and north and south of I-10 would experience tornadoes, significant flooding, not mention inland wind effects. The list goes on and on ... I so hope this doesn't verify.

A storm coming in at corpus would not be devestating to Houston, far enough to be removed from Hurricane force winds more than likely. Depending on the angle, effects could be minimal.

I should clarify further ... if an Ike comes in around Victoria, Houston gets hammered with tropical storm force winds. Still has a dramatic inland effect. If it comes in near Corpus, of course poor Corpus gets smashed and the inland affect is even more significant cover more metropolitan areas.

[jeff]

Let me clarify a few things. As far as the right track in the GOM. Given a well defined storm...a hurricane moving at 8mph or greater it tends to track right of guidance and the NHC track...this was a study done by th elocal HGX office. Examples: Rita, Humberto, Dolly, Claudette, Frances 98, ect.

As far as the ridge goes...Ike will follow the ridge around the SW and through the W side and hit the coast. If the ridge is stronger it will go more west if it is weaker it will go more east...I still like Matagorda Bay to Vermillion Bay...but with the continued W motion today I am tempted to push the strike area down to Port Aransas on the W side and still keep Vermillion Bay on the east.

[Steve]

FWIW, for an alternative low-budget version of the ECMWF, you can always check San Jose State for the ECMWF vs. GFS overlays. They animate at 500mb as well as at the surface. Here's the link to the GFS vs. ECMWF 12z 500mb run:

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html

[smw1981]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

Lidner mentioned that evac orders would probably be as early as Wed. Govenor Perry issued a disaster declaration for many counties in Tx. Why do you think this is not a good idea?

I guess then that using the logic sometimes found on this board that the Govenors of LA and TX are people I disagree with...

This is what I think is straightforward...the models YESTERDAY did not pick up on the track Ike would take...what in God's beautiful green earth makes everyone think they are picking up on a landfall 5-6 days out? That is why it is not a good idea to make evac orders and declare states of emergency when we are so far from landfall. And didn't the Texas Gov. declare states of emergency for Texas really early for Gustav? Did Texas receive a drop of rain from Gustav?

I realize the big Texas metro areas need a lot of time to prepare to get everyone out in the event of a major cane...but this is just too early because they are causing a lot of people to panic and it may be for nothing. You know what happens when people are asked to leave time and again and nothing happens? They get complacent and will stop evacuating when things seem to be headed in their direction. Is that the correct action to take? NO! Is it human nature? YES.

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is way too early to tell....

[Portastorm]

This is what I think is straightforward...the models YESTERDAY did not pick up on the track Ike would take...what in God's beautiful green earth makes everyone think they are picking up on a landfall 5-6 days out? That is why it is not a good idea to make evac orders and declare states of emergency when we are so far from landfall. And didn't the Texas Gov. declare states of emergency for Texas really early for Gustav? Did Texas receive a drop of rain from Gustav?

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is too early to tell....

Unfortunately you do not know of which you speak ... "states of emergency" in this case really are disaster proclamations. They are made because a state governor cannot use federal resources without first declaring a disaster proclamation. The federal resources (i.e. military, etc.) are used to help a state prepare for a potential disaster. That is why they are declared 4-5-6 days in advance. And yes, portions of southeast Texas did get some rain from Gustav.

[gboudx]

Did Texas receive a drop of rain from Gustav?

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is too early to tell....

However many drops of rain it takes to fill-up a rain gauge to about 1.5" is how many drops of rain I got from Gustav here on the east side of Dallas. :shrug:

Go ahead and drop Govenor Perry and the Texas EOC a PM or mail about how they shouldn't be doing evac preps and other waste of time stuff like that. Include Govenor Jindal and the La EOC as well.

[smw1981]

This is what I think is straightforward...the models YESTERDAY did not pick up on the track Ike would take...what in God's beautiful green earth makes everyone think they are picking up on a landfall 5-6 days out? That is why it is not a good idea to make evac orders and declare states of emergency when we are so far from landfall. And didn't the Texas Gov. declare states of emergency for Texas really early for Gustav? Did Texas receive a drop of rain from Gustav?

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is too early to tell....

Unfortunately you do not know of which you speak ... "states of emergency" in this case really are disaster proclamations. They are made because a state governor cannot use federal resources without first declaring a disaster proclamation. The federal resources (i.e. military, etc.) are used to help a state prepare for a potential disaster. That is why they are declared 4-5-6 days in advance. And yes, portions of southeast Texas did get some rain from Gustav.

Then I suppose the whole coast of the GOM should declare states of emergency because the NHC has already said, TODAY, that they don't know where Ike is going or which portion of the GOM will be impacted.

[smw1981]

This is what I think is straightforward...the models YESTERDAY did not pick up on the track Ike would take...what in God's beautiful green earth makes everyone think they are picking up on a landfall 5-6 days out? That is why it is not a good idea to make evac orders and declare states of emergency when we are so far from landfall. And didn't the Texas Gov. declare states of emergency for Texas really early for Gustav? Did Texas receive a drop of rain from Gustav?

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is too early to tell....

Unfortunately you do not know of which you speak ... "states of emergency" in this case really are disaster proclamations. They are made because a state governor cannot use federal resources without first declaring a disaster proclamation. The federal resources (i.e. military, etc.) are used to help a state prepare for a potential disaster. That is why they are declared 4-5-6 days in advance. And yes, portions of southeast Texas did get some rain from Gustav.

Then I suppose the whole coast of the GOM should declare states of emergency because the NHC has already said, TODAY, that they don't know where Ike is going or which portion of the GOM will be impacted.

PS - I was being sarcastic about the rain in Texas from Gus...my point was that the models are always wrong this far out from landfall!