ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[x-y-no]

0Z sounding at Kingston:



Looks like the ridge is backing off a little. This comports well with the 6hour point of the 18Z GFS.

[Dick Pache]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Wthrman13]

I wouldn't call it an eye either, but it's pretty close to the NHC 8 p.m. position, so I'd say that the center is probably in or near that hole, slowly emerging off of the coast.

[weatherguru18]

What is the NGFDL? Is that a new and improved GFDL? As a side note, looks like it has come down to NO or Houston...who will "win out" so to speak? I guess my prediction of Mississippi looks pretty bogus now.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the global models, I dont really see a weekness in the ridge at all through mid next week, so one has to assume a W/NW course for quite a while. Even Nogaps is getting onboard now.

Regarding any storm to the E of FL, I think that is a fantasy. If Gustav becomes a major as some suggest, his outflow should produce a downstream trough that would shear the daylights out of any disturbance near by to the east.

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Didja notice the Cubans have their own MM5 model you can click on? Seems to show Gustav moving West. I copied URL onto model thread.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What is the NGFDL? Is that a new and improved GFDL? As a side note, looks like it has come down to NO or Houston...who will "win out" so to speak? I guess my prediction of Mississippi looks pretty bogus now.

I can never find a link, but I have heard of a GFDL initialized off the Navy NoGaps instead of the GFS. Guessing that is it...

[twister]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the State of Texas is now activated Emergency plans for a major hurricane.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082608.pdf

Also I saw that Texas is going into H-120 mode. That was posted by Scotta on KHOU.com. I'm not exactly sure what H-120 is. Does anybody?

It's Stage 1 of their emergency activation process. They know if a monster storm approaches that they only have 72 hours so they start this stage to put people into position.

They learned a lot from Rita. Got that from an emergency responder in Houston.

Just listened to Gov. Bobby Jindal here in Louisiana and WOW he is really not messing around waiting to "see what happens" He activated our Level 3 emergency center (monitor and talk with other officials) and If the storm track continues to look like a Southeast or Southcentral La. hit Bus contracts could be activated Thursday and then he said the Evacs could start Sat. with contraflow (reverse lanes) could start Late Sat. or Sun. While it may well be a false alarm I am glad to see the officials here are not taking the same "wait and see approach they took with Katrina.

It seems that Louisiana officials learned alot from Katrina as well.
Tim

I saw Gov. Jindal also. He included the use of trains to evac if it comes to that. I was pleasantly surprised. He indeed is on the ball. Our former Gov. Blanco could not have handled Katrina worse in retrospect imo.

[crazycajuncane]

It's Stage 1 of their emergency activation process. They know if a monster storm approaches that they only have 72 hours so they start this stage to put people into position.

They learned a lot from Rita. Got that from an emergency responder in Houston.

Just listened to Gov. Bobby Jindal here in Louisiana and WOW he is really not messing around waiting to "see what happens" He activated our Level 3 emergency center (monitor and talk with other officials) and If the storm track continues to look like a Southeast or Southcentral La. hit Bus contracts could be activated Thursday and then he said the Evacs could start Sat. with contraflow (reverse lanes) could start Late Sat. or Sun. While it may well be a false alarm I am glad to see the officials here are not taking the same "wait and see approach they took with Katrina.

It seems that Louisiana officials learned alot from Katrina as well.
Tim

I saw Gov. Jindal also. He included the use of trains to evac if it comes to that. I was pleasantly surprised. He indeed is on the ball. Our former Gov. Blanco could not have handled Katrina worse in retrospect imo.

The sad thing is what it actually took for us to understand the severity of these monsters. Once again though, the real beast was the levees in New Orleans. I bet they are still in doubts about the levee system. A cat 3 to the west of New Orleans is definitely not a pretty picture.

It's good to see our governor ready. I actually got to head down to the ninth ward this past weekend and all I can say is WOW. 3 years later and still so much that needs to be done!

[Emmett_Brown]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Didja notice the Cubans have their own MM5 model you can click on? Seems to show Gustav moving West. I copied URL onto model thread.

go fidel

tropics are in slooow moootion, active yes, but in no hurry , and not good news for haiti

I guess the overall slow motion of things does worry me a bit... even though we have better model consensus, there might be huge error at 120 hours if the storm were to move slower than expected, and if the ridge is overestimated in the long term for some reason.

[ConvergenceZone]

Radar suggests that the center is southwest of that hole. It looks like Gustav is taking a due west heading and will go over the entire Haitian peninsula.

I agree, since this seems to have finally made the turn west, it will be going back over land, perhaps weakening below hurricane strength until morning and once it emerges, it should get it's act back together again....

[latemodel25]

[

tropics are in slooow moootion, active yes, but in no hurry , and not good news for haiti[/quote]

I guess the overall slow motion of things does worry me a bit... even though we have better model consensus, there might be huge error at 120 hours if the storm were to move slower than expected, and if the ridge is overestimated in the long term for some reason.[/quote] im sure the nhc has allowed for this right? huge as in what direction? thanks..

[dwg71]

Radar suggests that the center is southwest of that hole. It looks like Gustav is taking a due west heading and will go over the entire Haitian peninsula.

I agree, since this seems to have finally made the turn west, it will be going back over land, perhaps weakening below hurricane strength until morning and once it emerges, it should get it's act back together again....

I actually think center is NE of that hole... jmo

[TideJoe]

What is the NGFDL? Is that a new and improved GFDL? As a side note, looks like it has come down to NO or Houston...who will "win out" so to speak? I guess my prediction of Mississippi looks pretty bogus now.

I doubt it will be NO or Houston. Probably a LA or TX storm, but probably not either of those cities directly......

BTW, stating that MS ( or even points East) are out of the woods is very premature.......we're 7 days out and the error in track could be hundreds of miles.

[Emmett_Brown]

[

tropics are in slooow moootion, active yes, but in no hurry , and not good news for haiti

I guess the overall slow motion of things does worry me a bit... even though we have better model consensus, there might be huge error at 120 hours if the storm were to move slower than expected, and if the ridge is overestimated in the long term for some reason.[/quote] im sure the nhc has allowed for this right? huge as in what direction? thanks..[/quote]

Actually, you are right, they have accounted for the 120 hr potential error, by using a probability cone. As for which way, probably anywhere in this cone:

[Dean4Storms]

I don't understand those that try and say with anything more than a guess right now where Gustav will end up on the Gulf Coast. I know the models seem to be drawing a consensus toward the NW GOM right now but so many things could make that consensus fall apart in one z run it ain't funny. What if Gus tracks slower than expected, what if Gus stair steps into the ridge more than expected, what if Gus moved over the length of Cuba and became a much weaker storm, what if the weakness does indeed drop into the GOM quicker and faster than depicted, e.t.c.....?

How many times have we seen a 120 hour out track forecasted now swing hundreds of miles in another direction 48 hrs later?

Everyone along the upper and western Gulf coast are at threat with this storm right now and it is still too early to right anyone off from TX clear through to Appalachicola, FL, see the NHC Cone for clarification.

[Sabanic]

How many times have we seen a 120 hour out track forecasted now swing hundreds of miles in another direction 48 hrs later?

Everyone along the upper and western Gulf coast are at threat with this storm right now and it is still too early to right anyone off from TX clear through to Appalachicola, FL, see the NHC Cone for clarification.

Exactly Dean.

[wxman57]

Just did one last measurement of Gustav's motion before bed. I get a movement of about 40-41nm in 3 hours. That's about 13.5 kts toward 280 degrees or so. Definitely moving now. Doubt that speed will continue, and it was hard to find a common reference point 3hrs back.

Oh, and my latest landfall point is north of BRO similar to Dolly, late Monday night. Of course, that's just a best estimate this far out. Can go anywhere from MX to FL Panhandle still.

[Emmett_Brown]

I don't understand those that try and say with anything more than a guess right now where Gustav will end up on the Gulf Coast. I know the models seem to be drawing a consensus toward the NW GOM right now but so many things could make that consensus fall apart in one z run it ain't funny. What if Gus tracks slower than expected, what if Gus stair steps into the ridge more than expected, what if Gus moved over the length of Cuba and became a much weaker storm, what if the weakness does indeed drop into the GOM quicker and faster than depicted, e.t.c.....?

How many times have we seen a 120 hour out track forecasted now swing hundreds of miles in another direction 48 hrs later?

Everyone along the upper and western Gulf coast are at threat with this storm right now and it is still too early to right anyone off from TX clear through to Appalachicola, FL, see the NHC Cone for clarification.

A big cone indeed... If 120 hr forecasts were more accurate, the cone would be a lot smaller. I for one think that Gustav will hang out and bash and thrash in between Haiti, Cuba and Hispaniola longer than shown on the official track, and i think he could be weaker... I also think that other systems are bottling up in the wings that may keep the ridge weaker at the surface, which could result in slower motion than depicted. This is just my opinion, but these land masses have messed up many a track forecast... See Ernesto in '06 and Fay '08 for reference.

[Smurfwicked]

What is the NGFDL? Is that a new and improved GFDL? As a side note, looks like it has come down to NO or Houston...who will "win out" so to speak? I guess my prediction of Mississippi looks pretty bogus now.

I doubt it will be NO or Houston. Probably a LA or TX storm, but probably not either of those cities directly......

BTW, stating that MS ( or even points East) are out of the woods is very premature.......we're 7 days out and the error in track could be hundreds of miles.

I agree, the odds of that happening are very slim, however if it threatens to come anywhere remotely close to either of those major metro areas as a major hurricane (as predicted) then you could expect mass scale evacuations.

And anybody from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area knows what happens when Houston gets evacuated to later have the rest of SETX get evacuated too.

Looking at the latest track direction and speed it appears to have about a 18 hr window to ramp up and show improvements before land interaction could become a problem for further development once again. Lets see what Gustav does, always seems like from 3am-10am CST is prime time for intensification from my observations.

Like I said before there is going to still be much uncertainty even when this reaches western Cuba / or enters the GOM everybody along the gulf coast should be watching this!