Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Steve]

That GFS parks TD(?) Fay over southern Mississippi for a couple-few days. That would probably be bad for points east as far as rainfall totals. Obviously it doesn't intensify it into anything strong or extreme, but the rainfall is usually the biggest potential problem with TD's/TS's as we have seen with Fay.

What I think some people are hung up on is what it's classified as. It really doesn't make that much of a difference. We're all pretty sure it's not likely to get extreme because it's a coast hugger. But inland or offshore, it's going to have all available water to feed off of and transfer in the form of precipitation into the SE/Gulf Coast - particularly east of the center.

Obviously the 00z ensembles (GFS) see a more southerly route than the 12z actual model, so once those are released to the public sector, we can look and see if they still run southerly to the actual output or not and whether there is any merit to their various solutions.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 6L.ens.gif

Steve

[Sabanic]

Looks like the Consensus is moving south and over the northern GOM, this ain't be lookin good at tall!

All of these model outputs mean nothing because they ALL
continue to be wrong. She is still NOT moving. She will eventually
(hopefully) move (drift) wnw and then shoot off to the NE.

Well there you have it.
You're one of the very few, including the NHC, that thinks that

[tolakram]

Is the the steering levels that the NHC is using? This would explain the west then northwest motion they predict. I can't read these things so please help me out. I gather it depends how strong Fay is as to what steering levels to use?

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z of the HWRF takes Fay well south out over the Gulf but does not strengthen it at all.

[Bluefrog]

well i'm just getting so excited about this in south mississippi ... .... we DO NOT need any of this

[oyster_reef]

The 12z of the HWRF takes Fay well south out over the Gulf but does not strengthen it at all.

If (if "if" were a skiff... we'ed all be fishing) Fay drops as far as they suggest... we would see the makings of a Cat 2/3 in the making.

[Bluefrog]

oyster ... you just caused me to spit up my choc chip cookie dough ice cream i was just eating

[KWT]

Yeah its a big if oyster reef but I think if it does take the HWRf it probably does strengthen, I'm not sure by quite that much but I think slow development would occur.

[Jason_B]

I can't see Fay getting that far south in the Gulf, models have been overestimating this ridge since day 1. Just looks like a big rain event across the central Gulf coast.

[tolakram]

edit: wrong thread again.

[Dean4Storms]

Anybody ever see the 12Z Euro, I can't find the link in my favorites.

[Steve]

Yeah, it's insane for 94L but kinda goes typical of other runs ending up MS/AL.

1) Google PSU+Experimental Tropical for that version or

2) http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[haml8]

Huh???? Not much concensus??

[nashrobertsx]

where did you get that map from? i've seen spagetti runs, but that looks like lasgana. huh?

[HouTXmetro]

Not going to Happen but we(SETX-SWLA) are in the 5 day cone. Just wow. so much uncertainty.

[attallaman]

What's going on with those model runs once they reach central Mississippi?

[DESTRUCTION5]

06Z GFDL don't make it to the gulf and the HWRF Goes due W and parks in NO for and extended Martigras..

[lonelymike]

Pity this mean lady can't park herself where they need the rain up in the Carolinas. That's where it is really needed.

[Stormavoider]

Pity this mean lady can't park herself where they need the rain up in the Carolinas. That's where it is really needed.

Nobody needs 20 inches!

[wxman57]

That GFS parks TD(?) Fay over southern Mississippi for a couple-few days. That would probably be bad for points east as far as rainfall totals. Obviously it doesn't intensify it into anything strong or extreme, but the rainfall is usually the biggest potential problem with TD's/TS's as we have seen with Fay.

What I think some people are hung up on is what it's classified as. It really doesn't make that much of a difference. We're all pretty sure it's not likely to get extreme because it's a coast hugger. But inland or offshore, it's going to have all available water to feed off of and transfer in the form of precipitation into the SE/Gulf Coast - particularly east of the center.

Obviously the 00z ensembles (GFS) see a more southerly route than the 12z actual model, so once those are released to the public sector, we can look and see if they still run southerly to the actual output or not and whether there is any merit to their various solutions.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 6L.ens.gif

Steve

The GFS ensembles have proven to be very bad at hurricane forecasting. They're just not high enough resolution, I believe. I'd focus on the much better and proven consensus models. Here's a plot of most of them, with the operational AVN(GFS), GFDL, and HWRF thrown in.