TC Bertha

#3081 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:15 pm

cpdaman wrote:re-strengthening? building convection on west side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

Sure looks like it. Someone turned the shear off.

#3082 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:17 pm

Shear has lessened around the storm but appears to be on the increase to the north. Same set up as the last strengthening phase?

#3083 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:19 pm

Center looks broad and open, with convection on the NW side now.

Derek Ortt · #3084 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:26 pm

shear may be decreasing, but its still 20-25KT

#3085 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:41 pm

Down to 70kts,985 mbs per ATCF:

AL, 02, 2008070900, , BEST, 0, 228N, 554W, 70, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15, 1016, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

Chacor · #3086 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:44 pm

I'm not buying 70 kts with that exposed centre.

#3087 Postby **orion** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:56 pm

Is there a site anywhere with an animated image showing shear over time?

#3088 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:31 pm

The reds reappear again.

#3089 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:48 pm

The center is just below the reds?

#3090 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:02 pm

Pretty big burst of convection. No eye showing so I don't think this can be called RI.

#3091 Postby **canetracker** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:04 pm

tolakram wrote:

Pretty big burst of convection. No eye showing so I don't think this can be called RI.

Noticed that too. Bertha just does not seem to want to quit. Sure seems like she is moving West???

#3092 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:06 pm

There is still a lot more hydrogen to burn in this nuclear plant!!!

#3093 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:06 pm

The west movement is an illusion i think, as the convection starts to fire to the west of the center.

#3094 Postby **orion** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:12 pm

I think you're right tolakram, but it sure does give the illusion of a jump to the west. I do think we may still see a little more of a westward motion before it gets back on track and heads out to sea.

#3095 Postby **canetracker** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:14 pm

According to that CIMSS animated image, she has slowed down quite a bit both latitude and longitude-wise in the last few frames.

#3096 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:18 pm

Website · #3097 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

Not bad but not good either. Low-end Cat 1 sounds right.

#3098 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:25 pm

I think they may hold it at 75 or 80mph.

#3099 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:38 pm

Bermuda in the cone again.Track shifts a little west.Look what Lixon Avila said about the track.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT
TO THE WEST AND IS NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...IN FACT...JUST EAST OF THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. I DO NOT
WANT TO CHANGE THE TRACK TOO MUCH SINCE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN.

Sanibel · #3100 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Jul 08, 2008 9:39 pm

Slight rebound where the storm's energy fights back in a lull in the shear.

TC Bertha

Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

Re: Hurricane Bertha in Central Atlantic

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