ATL: IKE Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

I see Ike at 21.9N/68W which is S of the track and if he continues to move in this direction he will be well S of the next NHC point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

Look for Ike's center near the southwest part of the eye. Remember, you're looking at the top of a cylinder that is angled away from you when you look down into the eye, as the satellite is way down by the Equator. So put a cylinder on the table in front of you and angle the top away from you about 22 degrees to get an idea what I'm talking about. The center of the bottom of the cylinder on the table will not match the center you estimate on top.

That said, I'd put it near 21.8N/68.1W as of 1315Z - about 25nm south of NHC's track. Consensus models continued south overnight and I think Ike has a great chance of slamming into Cuba and tracking over land for a considerable period of time. That could knock the heck out of it, maybe down to a disorganized TS by the time it emerges into the SE Gulf. We saw how Gustav suffered quickly crossing the narrowest (and flatter) part of Cuba last week. If Ike spends 24 hours over mountainous terrain then it won't be a major hurricane in the SE Gulf Tuesday.

I hope so, we don't need more destruction

[wxman57]

[

Wxman East of Florida? Is that still on the table so to speak?

See my post above this one. It may well enter the Gulf then turn NE across Florida and possibly graze the Carolinas. But turning NW in the eastern Bahamas looks quite unlikely.

[Steve]

last three pages contain serious Florida homerism. By now the usual suspects should be better than that. Ed, a Tampa to mobile call isn't really much of a cAll. This post brought to you by generator charged sons iPhone. Fwiw la and ms are pAying attn

[SWFLA_CANE]

[

Wxman East of Florida? Is that still on the table so to speak?

See my post above this one. It may well enter the Gulf then turn NE across Florida and possibly graze the Carolinas. But turning NW in the eastern Bahamas looks quite unlikely.

Sort of a cross between Charley and Donna just maybe a little further north and weaker due to interaction with Cuba?

[Sanibel]

One other possibility which the GFS is indicating over the past few runs is that Ike may follow along generally with the NHC track (probably south of their track), turn NW to the eastern Gulf and slow down considerably. GFS then shoots it off to the ENE across the Tampa area ahead of an approaching front. New GFDL is hinting at that scenario, though it doesn't go out far enough to see any ENE turn.

Yes, I made a post last night saying climatology was likely to show up sooner or later in this scenario. One poster made a sarcastic comment about climatology in response.

Eerie dead calm here this morning with a glass smooth pond.

[Sabanic]

last three pages contain serious Florida homerism. By now the usual suspects should be better than that. Ed, a Tampa to mobile call isn't really much of a cAll. This post brought to you by generator charged sons iPhone. Fwiw la and ms are pAying attn

No doubt Steve. Outta here until later.

[Portastorm]

Morning guys

This storm has looked fairy disorganized the last 36 hours or so as its interaction with shear has really kept it fairly weak. Though still a cat3 storm. I think we'll probably see weakening continue overall, it may bump up in intensity briefly between now and cuban landfall but the eastern side of cuba is quite mountainous. If it moves along the length of cuba that will substantially disrupt the storm and if it goes into the GOM hopefully it goes in as a TS or weakening Cat1. The last thing the US gulf coast needs is another hurricane, especially a major hurricane.

"Fairly disgorganized" ... "fairly weak" ... as compared to what?! It's a Cat-3 dude and looks pretty darn good on satellite. Not sure what you're on about.

[KWT]

[

Wxman East of Florida? Is that still on the table so to speak?

See my post above this one. It may well enter the Gulf then turn NE across Florida and possibly graze the Carolinas. But turning NW in the eastern Bahamas looks quite unlikely.

In others a more westerly version of Donna then, in westerly I meant in terms of longitude it gets. I would want to see other models agree with that first but its certainly an option that may occur, the worry has to be that the system decides to slow down right over the loop current.

Anyway eye has just popped out again, now heading near west again after jogging to the SW, will come in a little below the NHC forecast points as wxman57 says.

[meteorologyman]

One other possibility which the GFS is indicating over the past few runs is that Ike may follow along generally with the NHC track (probably south of their track), turn NW to the eastern Gulf and slow down considerably. GFS then shoots it off to the ENE across the Tampa area ahead of an approaching front. New GFDL is hinting at that scenario, though it doesn't go out far enough to see any ENE turn.

I was going to ask something about that and you answerd it.
not the answer I was hoping to hear but I was expecting it esp since I'm in Orlando area

[otowntiger]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

I agree, somewhere between east of Florida and Mexico looks like a good forecast.

LOL! That would cover it! I like your sense of humor Wxman57. In all seriousness, we're glad to have you on this board. I respect your opinions and info.

[meteorologyman]

Yuu know looking at the models now and what wxman57 said this is looking like a Charley except making landfall further north than what Charlie did, I hope this does not pan out since it is 4 to 5 days away any how

[jlauderdal]

last three pages contain serious Florida homerism. By now the usual suspects should be better than that. Ed, a Tampa to mobile call isn't really much of a cAll. This post brought to you by generator charged sons iPhone. Fwiw la and ms are pAying attn

ah. more -removed- accusations, the other day we took it from a north carolina resident and now the north gulf coast, i guess we aren't allowed to look at the gfdl and hwrf..hopefully it doesnt come here but that would mean its coming your way, good luck steve

[Steve]

you sanibel - I would not bust on you but climo is always a roll of the dice. There was plenty of disagreement by tx and to posters about the nbc gustav track because no storm coming from x ever follwed that type of nw track before. Not seeing either of wxmans scenarios at this time

[Flakeys]

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[jlauderdal]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

I agree, somewhere between east of Florida and Mexico looks like a good forecast.

jeff masters was the best yesterday, he had himself covered either way for florida and all points south and west

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yuu know looking at the models now and what wxman57 said this is looking like a Charley except making landfall further north than what Charlie did, I hope this does not pan out since it is 4 to 5 days away any how

Landfall further north than Charley would be Sarasota or Tampa Bay or further north
I'm boarding up some of the glass exposed parts of the house this weekend.

[KWT]

Its still too early to know about meteorologyman, knowing what the GFS kept trying to do before with the recurve has made me a touch suspect and knowing the GFS does sometimes overdo troughs I think its still too early...however the GFDL coming onboard does give a lot of weight to the new GFS...even if they are ran off the same data!

Also Ike looks good, its certainly not "fairly weak" I agree, this is going to cause some really severe damage to Cuba as it rakes the island.

[cpdaman]

a always like to scan the scenery for ULL's near storms , because these features seem to be the achilles heal of model forecasts, there is one now to the NE of IKe and might this not act to drive him further SW i.e N.w haiti/ SE cuba

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif gotta love those Ull's

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html looking at the trends this ull is expanding it's influence west faster than ike'y is moving. perhaps more shear in the short term as well.

any pro's have any comments regarding our ULL friend

[Sanibel]

you sanibel - I would not bust on you but climo is always a roll of the dice. There was plenty of disagreement by tx and to posters about the nbc gustav track because no storm coming from x ever follwed that type of nw track before. Not seeing either of wxmans scenarios at this time

Good point Steve. I've been making the point that the weird WNW veer Gus took into Louisiana could still be in place. Too early to say. Right now if I chucked that WNW veer into the equation I would say it would resolve as a northward track into the panhandle with less recurve. But that is pure theory at this point.

Call me a griper, but being right about GFDL, the reasoning over it against what some pros were saying, and the track over the last few days has earned me being generally ignored as a reward. Tough board.

[6SpeedTA95]

Morning guys

This storm has looked fairy disorganized the last 36 hours or so as its interaction with shear has really kept it fairly weak. Though still a cat3 storm. I think we'll probably see weakening continue overall, it may bump up in intensity briefly between now and cuban landfall but the eastern side of cuba is quite mountainous. If it moves along the length of cuba that will substantially disrupt the storm and if it goes into the GOM hopefully it goes in as a TS or weakening Cat1. The last thing the US gulf coast needs is another hurricane, especially a major hurricane.

"Fairly disgorganized" ... "fairly weak" ... as compared to what?! It's a Cat-3 dude and looks pretty darn good on satellite. Not sure what you're on about.

Have you been watching this storm? It's clearly become disorganized from 36 to 48 hours ago as I clearly stated. It needs to continue this trend if its going ot make landfall. Watching a cat4/5 over open waters with no life endangered is a beautiful thing, watching something like that roar ashore is downright scary. Compared with earlier in its life this storm is clearly more disorganized as I plainly stated.