TC Bertha

[cycloneye]

Mantained as a hurricane,65 kts:

AL, 02, 2008070912, , BEST, 0, 236N, 570W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 15, 1014, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,

[Thunder44]

Even if that is the case Thunder it still looks a lot better then it did 12hrs ago and the structure has recently started to look much better and more like it did when it was stronger, I wouldn't be surprised if some slow strengthening has started to occur.

I do agree it does look better on visible imagery this morning. Latest one shows a thunderstorm blow up just north of the eye. So yeah, their could be some strengthing today.

[HURAKAN]

Convection developing right over the eyewall obscuring the center.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I was looking at some models and the weird thing is that one or two models that take it westward shows BIG BERTHA doing a stall and possible loops!!!!! Can anyone confirm this please

[tolakram]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


From the visible it appears convection may be wrapping nearly all the way around the center. If this continues I expect Bertha to regain some strength. Hey look, the disclaimer text is right up there where I can copy it.



The shear map once again shows variable shear near and in front of the storm. I have no clue how that will effect Bertha.

[KWT]

I don't think its in bad shape either though tolakram, its got a fairly decent northern eyewall and there is some deep convection with it along with a pretty decent structure, granted its no where near as good as it was 36hrs ago but then again its very rare for a hurricane to get as strong as it did in July.

[tolakram]

The latest mimic loop shows most of the recent consolidation near the center. It appears to me Bertha has a small center again.

[KWT]

Yep that looks like its developing a tight center again, also the loop really shows the ways its slowed down in the last 12hrs or so, also seems to be heading a little bit more to the WNW rather then NW but then again with the centering tightening up its hard to say.

[Thunder44]

I was looking at some models and the weird thing is that one or two models that take it westward shows BIG BERTHA doing a stall and possible loops!!!!! Can anyone confirm this please

It may loop around or stall out in the Atlantic this weekend, but the steering flow off the US East Coast, will keep it out in the Atlantic.

[drezee]

Convection developing right over the eyewall obscuring the center.

AH HA!! Bertha is making "the fist"...This almost always is followed by a period of moderate/rapid intensification. I can give you a number of examples, but Dean was the last time I can remember a storm doing this (see below).

Dean is making the fist...I coined the phrase many years ago...

This is an explosion of convection that wraps around the center and forms an eye in 12-24 hours or less. This indicates rapid intensification! Dean will be a hurricane very soon.

[KWT]

Will be interesting to watch what happens Dreeze, I can see what you mean though with the strong convection and the very circular CDO its gaining.

[tolakram]

Convection developing right over the eyewall obscuring the center.

AH HA!! Bertha is making "the fist"...This almost always is followed by a period of moderate/rapid intensification. I can give you a number of examples, but Dean was the last time I can remember a storm doing this (see below).

Dean is making the fist...I coined the phrase many years ago...

This is an explosion of convection that wraps around the center and forms an eye in 12-24 hours or less. This indicates rapid intensification! Dean will be a hurricane very soon.

The problem with saying that will work every time is that it depends on the SST and any shear that may or may not be effecting the system. Looking at the visible I'm starting to see a lot of cloud tops streaming away again, indicating that shear may be increasing.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030800.GIF

The area of convection is expanding, but is it healthy?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[drezee]

The problem with saying that will work every time is that it depends on the SST and any shear that may or may not be effecting the system. Looking at the visible I'm starting to see a lot of cloud tops streaming away again, indicating that shear may be increasing.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030800.GIF

Does "almost always" = "saying that will work every time"? Not in the What we call "English"..."almost" != "all"

[Chacor]

A cloudy eye is now apparent on VIS.

[KWT]

Yep thats the eye and thats where the loop above shows the center to be, looks like Bertha is indeed now strengthing, also looks close to the NHC forecasted position for 18z. With the eye the system looks much better I feel.

[tolakram]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Looks like that fist prediction worked again.



So is Bertha one of those storms that has a tenacious core that will take every opportunity to strengthen at a rapid pace?

[KWT]

Yep its getting there isn't it, center is just north of 24N looking at the big picture of it...actually I think it looks a little unstacked given microwave imagery shows the center just a little to the south of 24N??

[cpdaman]

Yep its getting there isn't it, center is just north of 24N looking at the big picture of it...actually I think it looks a little unstacked given microwave imagery shows the center just a little to the south of 24N??

that is from several hours ago right


appears the center has moved NW/NNW since 1015Z



lets see if than convection wraps and builds along the SE quad, then we could see a rapid drop in pressure yet again.

[Thunder44]

They may fly out there on Friday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT WED 09 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-039

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF
HURRICANE BERTHA NEAR 29N 61W AT 11/1800Z.

[tolakram]