ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS about to roll...Let's see how far east it shifts tonite

[HouTXmetro]

if west trend continues, east coast of florida is back in play

We may have to post watches Hawaii soon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did you guys even except my bet? I don't mind picking up a few sixes of Shiner, but I didn't think anyone took me up with my extended error cone.


I still say landfall South of BRO, and if SPI or BRO don't report sustained 65 knot winds, my "season over?" speculation was correct. Gustav avoided Texas, after all.

0Z GFS shows a he-man ridge...

[ROCK]

here comes the all mighty, all knowing 0z GFS run.....!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[dwg71]

warrior, i think gfs east shifts were just runs showing it getting picked up by troughs, I think that idea is gone. I would not expect much shift at all, maybe more gradual.

[mattpetre]

Did you guys even except my bet? I don't mind picking up a few sixes of Shiner, but I didn't think anyone took me up with my extended error cone.


I still say landfall South of BRO, and if SPI or BRO don't report sustained 65 knot winds, my "season over?" speculation was correct. Gustav avoided Texas, after all.

0Z GFS shows a he-man ridge...

I sure thought that when I posted a cone that remained around 200 to 300 miles wide the entire path of IKE that I was accepting your bet whole-heartedly. I would like to sit and have those Shiners with you Ed when this storm is done with TX.

[HouTXmetro]

Oy, look at that Ridge!!

[shah8]

Before people start celebrating the sparing of Houston and the potential of a south of the border impact--check the verification of the 12z and 18z GFDL and HWRF models. Ike is now *much* north and west of the forcast points for the GFDL and HWRF 18z models, and *slightly* north and west of the 12z models, which looked so devastating. It's still a pretty long way to go, with a bunch of uncertainty, and no one really should make plans to do anything but plan what to do when the first models show up as Ike crosses Cuba for the last time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Stays South of La Habana, Mexico landfall looking good, through 12 hours, anyway.

[dwg71]

Before people start celebrating the sparing of Houston and the potential of a south of the border impact--check the verification of the 12z and 18z GFDL and HWRF models. Ike is now *much* north and west of the forcast points for the GFDL and HWRF 18z models, and *slightly* north and west of the 12z models, which looked so devastating. It's still a pretty long way to go, with a bunch of uncertainty, and no one really should make plans to do anything but plan what to do when the first models show up as Ike crosses Cuba for the last time.

but they all put it in about the same place in 24 hours. Ike is taking more of wnw heading in the last couple of hours. Doesnt change the set up.

[teal61]

through 24 they are nearly identical when compared side by side...

[mattpetre]

Stays South of La Habana, Mexico landfall looking good, through 12 hours, anyway.

Ed, are you seriously willing to say that your TX season over was dead on if Ike miraculously makes it just S. of the border? OK, I'm willing to give you that one, but I'm also willing to do a double or nothing on Shiner that it will be within 50 miles S. of Corpus to Galveston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Stays South of La Habana, Mexico landfall looking good, through 12 hours, anyway.

Ed, are you seriously willing to say that your TX season over was dead on if Ike miraculously makes it just S. of the border? OK, I'm willing to give you that one, but I'm also willing to do a double or nothing on Shiner that it will be within 50 miles S. of Corpus to Galveston.

How much Shiner was bet?

[teal61]

still almost unchanged through 66 hrs

[njweather]

This may be a dumb question...

Will the activity in the BoC have an effect on the ridge?

[mattpetre]

I think it was a six pack, but I'll drink whatever you can bring to the post hurricane party... Seriously, I think the westward trend may spare Houston, but now I worry about my initial forecast of a strIKE around Corpus... ugh.

[mattpetre]

This may be a dumb question...

Will the activity in the BoC have an affect on the ridge?

Not a dumb question at all, but I don't think it's a really easy one to answer. I've been watching that and wondering too.

[shah8]

Pretty much exactly the same, except a touch south. I'm still not buying it...At least not yet.

[dwg71]

looks to be coming in south of the border, just barely 84 hours.

[Weatherfreak000]

Hits right at the border again on this run.