ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here is the skeleton of Josephine.

[HurricaneBelle]

For what it's worth, Bastardi thinks something's going to develop from the Josephine remnants once it reaches the Bahamas based on the overall pattern.

[CourierPR]

For what it's worth, Bastardi thinks something's going to develop from the Josephine remnants once it reaches the Bahamas based on the overall pattern.

If nothing else, he is very good at pattern recognition. He might be on to something there.

[fci]

For what it's worth, Bastardi thinks something's going to develop from the Josephine remnants once it reaches the Bahamas based on the overall pattern.

And let me guess; a Cat 4 threatening NC/SC?
Then a forecast of it threatening Fla?
Then a revised forecast of the GOM?
Then a forecast that it will not develop.
Then a post-mortem that he was right!!!

[Vortex]

Models begining to ramp up ex Josephine as she enters the bahamas this weekend. 00Z NAM is more agressive each run to date and brings a developing tropical system into the bahamas late this weekend. The 500mb pattern places well established ridging over the SE and SW atlantic.


00Z NAM Loop


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HurricaneFreak]

So wait a minute this remnants they predict it to come back into a depression or storm?around the Bahamas and then towards Florida?from the model loop i saw on the comment above me shows it forming near eastern bahamas and moving towards s FL.

[Sanibel]

I had a feeling Josephine would get sucked in behind Ike without a plunging ridge to drive it south of Florida.

[bob rulz]

So wait a minute this remnants they predict it to come back into a depression or storm?around the Bahamas and then towards Florida?from the model loop i saw on the comment above me shows it forming near eastern bahamas and moving towards s FL.

No one is saying it's GOING to happen, they're just saying it's a possibility.

And if that does happen that would be bad. The U.S. has been battered this year.

[gatorcane]

Josephine's remnants appear to be flaring up as it approaches a cluster of showers and storms extending WSW from NE of Puerto Rico.

This may be the next area to watch:

[HURAKAN]

AL, 10, 2008091000, , BEST, 0, 163N, 536W, 25, 1010, LO,

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This would end up like the situation with X-TD10 (Katrina) In Katrina's case she developed into TD #10 out by Africa then because of shear died off. What was left of her traveled west got to around the Bahamas where it caught up to better conditions and developed into a TD again and later become Katrina. Josephine developed into a Tropical Storm out by Africa then died off because of shear and is now a ticking time bomb waiting for better conditions by the Bahamas to redevelop and then should track west across Florida under High Pressure and become yet another system this year in the GoM!

Please note that by comparing Josephine to Katrina I am in no way saying that its going to become a monster cat 5 and head to NO. I am just saying that up to this point with the environment its kind of like Katrina. How strong it will get if it redevelops is currently to early to really figure out at this time!

[jinftl]

I have heard mets refer to this scenario of formation as a 'Bahama Bomber'.

This would end up like the situation with X-TD10 (Katrina) In Katrina's case she developed into TD #10 out by Africa then because of shear died off. What was left of her traveled west got to around the Bahamas where it caught up to better conditions and developed into a TD again and later become Katrina. Josephine developed into a Tropical Storm out by Africa then died off because of shear and is now a ticking time bomb waiting for better conditions by the Bahamas to redevelop and then should track west across Florida under High Pressure and become yet another system this year in the GoM!

Please note that by comparing Josephine to Katrina I am in no way saying that its going to become a monster cat 5 and head to NO. I am just saying that up to this point with the environment its kind of like Katrina. How strong it will get if it redevelops is currently to early to really figure out at this time!

[Lowpressure]

For what it's worth, Bastardi thinks something's going to develop from the Josephine remnants once it reaches the Bahamas based on the overall pattern.

And let me guess; a Cat 4 threatening NC/SC?
Then a forecast of it threatening Fla?
Then a revised forecast of the GOM?
Then a forecast that it will not develop.
Then a post-mortem that he was right!!!

So true- great post.

[gatorcane]

only marginally favorable conditions for development though for ex-Josephine..as Ike pushes west the Western Atlantic Upper-level winds should decrease:

[gatorcane]

Here is another good shot of the new area to watch on the right of the image. On the left is Ike moving west:

[Vortex]

Latest visible imagery clearly shows an increase in organization this morning..While upper level winds are marginal at present shear has been on the decrease the last 24 hours. The pattern current and forecasted should take Josey near the SE bahamas on Saturday..The concern is that when Josey enters the bahamas conditions aloft will continue to improve. Ridging is expected to the north which should track this system throught the central and western bahamas possibly posing a threat to florida early next week.

[gatorcane]

I see some cyclonic turning but south of the deeper convection....

I don't see any LLC at this time but this is still the next area to watch over the coming days:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[gatorcane]

if this area indeed develops would it by Kyle or Josephine?

[Tropics Guy]

IMO if this area redevelops from the remanants of Josephine, then it should be called Josephine.

TG

[HURAKAN]

if this area indeed develops would it by Kyle or Josephine?

The NHC is still referring to this area as "Josephine's remnants"

TWD 8 AM EDT:
"THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE
REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 54W FROM 14N TO 20N. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N49W 20N54W 21N59W. "