ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Meso]

Ouch...133 kt landfall

GFDL also shows a strong hurricane at landfall, borderline cat 4

[dwg71]

It is worth noting that it was the Euro and the UKMET that led the southerly and westerly march of models. The fact that the latest 0Z Euro/UKMET/CMC models are so much further north than the GFS/GFDL now is not a good sign for SE Texas, and I expect the models to shift over the next 24 hours back towards central Texas and further north from there. I don't know how much the models are allowing for poleward movement of a large intense hurricane, but it bothers me. Not a good situation for Corpus Christi, Victoria, Galveston, Houston and Beaumont to be in. Ike looking better and better on satellite.

but both the euro and cmc shifted south from prior run, only the ukmet moved north.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Ouch...133 kt landfall

GFDL also shows a strong hurricane at landfall, borderline cat 4

Well IF it can keep its Wilma like 6 mile wide eye crossing cuba I would think we COULD see some some wilma like strengthening once in the Gulf. We will just have to wait and see!

[TampaFl]

5:00am position - hugging the south coast of Cuba:

[Nimbus]

The water vapor loop this morning clearly shows the low shear environment over the gulf.

Signs of ridging developing all the way to Texas looks very eary.

This time of year you might expect some weakness near the texas coast later in the forecast, but the details of anything like that are too far out.

As new data comes in it will be important not to stubbornly hold on to old forecast biases.

The ridging pattern is pretty clear a few days out now so it looks like the models will only be differing on the possibility of any late forecast weakness.

I don't see anything that would stand in the way of Ike reaching cat 4 or higher intensity over the gulf. Hope for dry air near landfall?

[deltadog03]

I see the ridge just off the coast of Tx...Looks fairly healthy...

[KWT]

Well now its the GFS thats the furtherest south of the lot and thats not a good thing as that part of Texas is heavily populated and already been hit by a category-2 this season...

However the ECM and other models are further north.

As for the GFDL...898mbs near landfall

[dwg71]

through 78 hours, gfs is heading due west just south of texas mexico border about 12 hours from landfall.

no changes yet,

[KWT]

So pretty much the same, thats real bad news for those down there, very populated and already hit by a hurricane

[dwg71]

90 hours, landfall just at or just south of tx mex border. 3 runs in a row.. definately better for Houston, but worse for those down there who already had Dolly

Also, no recurve through 126 hours, dies off in Mexico

[KWT]

GFS seems to be a bit faster then the other models, I wonder whether thats the reason why its a little further south then the other models?

[deltadog03]

GFS looks too fast, IMO Plus, for now looks like there is a ridge there right now....

[Diva]

I'm exhausted! So, do I need to watch for northward bends in the models all day today? I sure hope not because I don't know how much more of this I can take. I feel better that I'm not in the cone any longer though.

[dwg71]

gfs has it making landfall between 90 and 96 hours, seems to be right with other models.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The NAM and the GFS- on the border. I'll be in bed then, but I suspect Euro and UK Met follow suit. UK Met might be halfway down to Veracruz, which might be a tad too far South...

Yep, 6Z models close to 0Z models, as they close in on the final solution. If the "Texas Season Over?" speculation fails, it won't be by much...

Edit to add: Idea that Westerlies had returned to most of Texas, as subtropical ridge axis settled South of us earlier than normal worked out quite well.

[shah8]

hwrf 06z is the same as the 00z.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL Mexico/Texas Border.

WHXX04 KWBC 091128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.9 81.5 285./11.1
6 22.1 82.6 281./10.7
12 22.4 83.8 286./10.9
18 22.7 84.5 293./ 7.3
24 23.0 85.0 299./ 6.1
30 23.5 85.7 306./ 8.1
36 24.0 86.4 306./ 7.8
42 24.3 87.0 295./ 6.2
48 24.4 88.0 277./ 8.7
54 24.6 89.1 280./10.1
60 24.6 90.2 267./10.9
66 24.8 91.4 281./10.3
72 24.9 92.6 275./11.6
78 25.0 93.9 277./11.5
84 25.3 95.1 282./11.5
90 25.6 96.2 285./10.5
96 25.9 97.3 284./ 9.5
102 26.4 98.2 300./10.0
108 26.7 99.1 286./ 8.1
114 27.1 99.7 304./ 7.3
120 27.3 100.6 282./ 7.5
126 27.2 101.1 263./ 5.2

[dwg71]

that is further south on gfdl, takes it below border

[KWT]

Yep right into a very populated area of Texas/Mexico as well, still it was always going to shift south with the GFS so its not all that surprising.

I personally think the GFS has probably gone a little to far to the left now and I'd expect it to slowly shift back right, probably not by a huge deal mind you.

[gatorcane]

well just another left shift needed...and Ike goes into Mexico......

and it looks like another left shift is in store based on the 5AM disco indicating the NHC is on the north side of the guidance...