ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[hurrican19]

I'm exhausted! So, do I need to watch for northward bends in the models all day today? I sure hope not because I don't know how much more of this I can take. I feel better that I'm not in the cone any longer though.

Officially the BPT area is now just BARELY out of the "Cone of Error" but that is not a reason to let your guard down. This storm, as someone else posted, shouldn't even be in the Gulf of Mexico!

[ROCK]

The trend is there for the NE hook....The EURO sees it now much further up the coast....it has been the trend setter from the beggining so I see no reason to go against it now....I expect one of two things to happen: either the models trend towards the Euro with a NE bend to it or the EURO falls in line with GFS/GFDL and others.......with the trof progged I will go with the first choice...I like my odds....

I am sure AFM abd Jeff would agree as we were told this last night.....



Ed- I would wait for further guidance before you jump off the deep end.....I think I told you this yesterday.....hang tight and you might get you TX Season Over shiner....

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF landfall is a little north then GFDL,Between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[jasons2k]

Here's what I don't get. The GFS is way south, no curve. Same with the GFDL. But its twin brother, HWRF, responds to the trough and hooks right at the end like the UKMET, etc. (*throws arms up*). Pure madness at this point.

[ROCK]

Here's what I don't get. The GFS is way south, no curve. Same with the GFDL. But its twin brother, HWRF, responds to the trough and hooks right at the end like the UKMET, etc. (*throws arms up*). Pure madness at this point.

Hang tight Jasons.....as the EURO goes so does the others.....they will all see the trof at some point today.

BTW- Galveston activated EOC today

[perk]

The trend is there for the NE hook....The EURO sees it now much further up the coast....it has been the trend setter from the beggining so I see no reason to go against it now....I expect one of two things to happen: either the models trend towards the Euro with a NE bend to it or the EURO falls in line with GFS/GFDL and others.......with the trof progged I will go with the first choice...I like my odds....

I am sure AFM abd Jeff would agree as we were told this last night.....



Ed- I would wait for further guidance before you jump off the deep end.....I think I told you this yesterday.....hang tight and you might get you TX Season Over shiner....

Rock can you elaborate a little on that conversation with AFM & Jeff.

[HouTXmetro]

Yeah, I would like to know also. Jeff and AFM predicted the West trend a couple of days ago. They also predicteda trend back East as we get closer to landfall.

[Sjones]

Here's what I don't get. The GFS is way south, no curve. Same with the GFDL. But its twin brother, HWRF, responds to the trough and hooks right at the end like the UKMET, etc. (*throws arms up*). Pure madness at this point.

Hang tight Jasons.....as the EURO goes so does the others.....they will all see the trof at some point today.

BTW- Galveston activated EOC today

Dumb question what is EOC?

[HURAKAN]

An Emergency Operations Center, or EOC, is a central command and control facility responsible for carrying out the principles of emergency preparedness and emergency management, or disaster management functions at a strategic level in an emergency situation, and ensuring the continuity of operation of a company, political subdivision or other organization.

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_ ... ons_center

[Meso]

Wow, if I was living in the Texas area I would not be liking the looks of this... GFDL has Ike at 130kt at landfall and the HWRF has basically a Cat 5 (134kt) at landfall.

Anyone have what the SHIPS and other intensity models are showing?

[Jagno]

Cameron Parish Evacuation

Posted: Sep 8, 2008 08:09 PM CDT

Updated: Sep 8, 2008 08:09 PM CDT

Mandatory evacuation for lower Cameron Parish and low lying areas of Grand Lake and Hackberry starting Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

[ROCK]

Cameron Parish Evacuation

Posted: Sep 8, 2008 08:09 PM CDT

Updated: Sep 8, 2008 08:09 PM CDT

Mandatory evacuation for lower Cameron Parish and low lying areas of Grand Lake and Hackberry starting Wednesday.

predictable....I am sure all along the coast there will be evacs...Galveston is a little more reserved but as the models shift today they might pull the trigger tomorrow......JMO.....

[KWT]

Yep Meso they are coming into Texas with some real power, indeed the GFDL actually showing a weaker system then it was on its 0z run where it had a 899mbs hurricane, at least its a little more reasonable at 938mbs.

[HouTXmetro]

I will wait on a couple of more model runs before I can say SE Texas is off the hook.

[mattpetre]

I'm pretty sure you should wait till Ike is in the GOM and current forecast path verifies for two days before calling any all clears for SE TX.

[Meso]

[Sanibel]

GFDL goes into Matamoros. Which means it should go into Padre Island or so if GFDL tracks accordingly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, my point that Fall came early, the sub-tropical ridge headed South, and most of Texas remains in the Westerlies for weeks on end, spot on.


And one more model wobble (or Ike wobble) SW, and this is a Mexico storm.


Surrender? I have not even begun to fight!

[gatorcane]

Here's what I don't get. The GFS is way south, no curve. Same with the GFDL. But its twin brother, HWRF, responds to the trough and hooks right at the end like the UKMET, etc. (*throws arms up*). Pure madness at this point.

Not to mention the NHC shows the track bending more and more west. It's quite possible that right hook never materializes...even so very few models show it at this point.