ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Ed, there is only so far south the models can go south and I think we've just about seen the southern limit from the latest GFS runs.

It could be a Mexico storm we shall have to see, also got a good chance of being a Texas storm as well however...

Sanibel, yep pretty much right into the same location Dolly went into...

[gatorcane]

Ed, there is only so far south the models can go south and I think we've just about seen the southern limit from the latest GFS runs.

It could be a Mexico storm we shall have to see, also got a good chance of being a Texas storm as well however...

Sanibel, yep pretty much right into the same location Dolly went into...

its truly amazing that we are even talking about Mexico with Ike....as the north turn keeps failing to materialize.

[haml8]

I would have to agree with Rock (about th EURO)... seems this has been the tendancy. It also seems that Ike is North of the forcasted point at the moment.

[Steve]

>>Well, my point that Fall came early, the sub-tropical ridge headed South, and most of Texas remains in the Westerlies for weeks on end, spot on.

This is balderdash Ed. What it was, was the mechanism for the mean trough to retrograde far out west (currently through Arizona "in the means"). There's a bigger picture than "fall arriving early" just like there was a bigger picture to those August fronts in 2005 that ushered in the second half of the Gulf tropical season (Katrina, Rita, Wilma, a couple of BOC systems...). It's no different in 2008. The changing weather pattern with massive high pressure set up aloft, paved the way for the hurricane season Part II to crank and aim for the Gulf of Mexico. The fact that Gustav hit Lafourche/Terrebonne, and the fact that Ike will hit/should hit somewhere around 95W as a storm that didn't form from a front or MCS should tell you to look elsewhere. IMHO, despite the fact that you are one of my favorite posters on the site, you fell into the weather-weenie trap trying actually overtly to do what so many other posters try to do below the surface: being the first to be right. Shame on you but it's all good. Perhaps next year you will view the bigger picture.

Steve

[Johnny]

Ed, this isn't the Alamo brother.


As far as the upper Texas coast. Well, IMO with the latest models pointing deep into South, Texas, I really do think that the upper Texas coast is good to go. At this time yesterday the NHC had Galveston right in the middle of there cone. Now the middle of the cone is WAY down south and Galveston is barely in the cone. Do any of y'all really think that the middle of the cone will swing back towards the Galveston area? I don't think so. JMO of course.

[Portastorm]

Ed, my friend, a thing about your "westerlies" ... the morning forecast discussion out of the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio reads as follows: "THE UPPER HIGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION NORTH AND WEST OF IKE, AN EFFECTIVE BUFFER ZONE FOR THE COASTAL STATES. THE WESTERLIES NOW CONTROL ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST STATES."

There are no westerlies over Texas, Ed! There might be by Sunday .. but not right now. Sorry. Nada.

If anything the flow is out of the southwest and off the Pacific which explains all of the high level moisture over our state right now, easily discernable via satellite.

[Bolebuns]

Ed, this isn't the Alamo brother.


As far as the upper Texas coast. Well, IMO with the latest models pointing deep into South, Texas, I really do think that the upper Texas coast is good to go. At this time yesterday the NHC had Galveston right in the middle of there cone. Now the middle of the cone is WAY down south and Galveston is barely in the cone. Do any of y'all really think that the middle of the cone will swing back towards the Galveston area? I don't think so. JMO of course.

It certainly can. Think about what the cone is...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, my friend, a thing about your "westerlies" ... the morning forecast discussion out of the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio reads as follows: "THE UPPER HIGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION NORTH AND WEST OF IKE, AN EFFECTIVE BUFFER ZONE FOR THE COASTAL STATES. THE WESTERLIES NOW CONTROL ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN MOST STATES."

There are no westerlies over Texas, Ed! There might be by Sunday .. but not right now. Sorry. Nada.

If anything the flow is out of the southwest and off the Pacific which explains all of the high level moisture over our state right now, easily discernable via satellite.

You misinterpreted what you quote to prove me wrong. All but Deep South Texas is under the Westerlies, and BRO and CRP essentially have no 500 mb wind because they are very near the ridge axis. Houston has been under the Westerlies for a while. Nearby Lake Charles:


Not screaming, because LCH/HOU not too far North of the ridge axis, but North of the ridge axis we are.

[Stratosphere747]

TVCN shifted a bit to the N. Still look for the NHC to hold the track at 11.

[Senobia]

I have two questions regarding the NHC's present cone.



The initial track off Cuba shows to be pretty much NW. Once it gets to the mid Gulf area, the track changes toward a more due west or just N of. Why? Is this the trough/H coming into play?

The other question is if they can't be confident with where landfall is going to occur - and it's understandable that science does have its limitations - why bother plotting/dragging a track further inland when you can't be sure where it will land in the first place?

[Senobia]

TVCN shifted a bit to the N. Still look for the NHC to hold the track at 11.

Gah. Is there ever going to come a time with this storm (or any storm, for that matter) that the NHC and other powers that be are able to say, "This is the track. This is the model. Prepare accordingly because it will not shift again before landfall."

[karenfromheaven]

Dateline Maryland: HPC Wants In on Texas Shiner Deal - Europeans Can't Be Ignored:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
824 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 13 2008 - 12Z TUE SEP 16 2008

MODELS CONT TO MERGE INTO AN AGREED UPON MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
THIS PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERACTION WITH HURCN IKE. ALL
AGREE UPON BASE OF TROF SEPERATION OF A SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES WED KEEPING THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH PROGRESSIVE
WHILE LEAVING BACK A LARGE DIFUSE MID LEVEL TROF LINGERING OVER
THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST. DOWNSTREAM STRONG RIDGING CONTS TO
PREVAIL OVER SERN CONUS. UPSTREAM ALL MODELS SHOW ALEUTIAN HT
FALLS WITH CORRESPONDING RIDGING BUILDING IN THE NEAR CONUS EPAC
WITH THIS RIDGE PROGRESSING EWD INTO WRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE
OF AN AMPLIFYING FULL LATTITUDE TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SAT/SUN AND INTO THE MS VALLEY AND ERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MAIN ISSUE OVER CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT IKE IS
PICKED UP AND PULLED NORTH. VERY DISTINCT WRLY TREND IN THE TRACK
SINCE MID DAY YESTERDAY AIMING IKE FARTHER SOUTH DOWN THE TX COAST
WITH OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF TREND. ECMWF AND
CMC ARE THE ONLY MODELS AT THIS TIME THAT HAVE THE BASE OF THE
SWRN TROF DEEP ENOUGH AND ERODE THE WRN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CAPPING IKE TO ALLOW IT TO PULL NWD. BY MID DAY SAT THESE
TWO MODEL HAVE FULLY CAPTURED IKE AND BEGIN ITS NEWD TREK UP THRU
THE MID MS VALLEY WITH ECMWF TAKING IT OFFSHORE AS A FRONTAL WAVE
THRU THE MID ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE CMC LEAVES IT TO LINGER
BEHIND OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HWRF ALSO INDICATES CAPTURE AND
RECURVATURE WHILE UKMET ALSO PULLS IKE MORE NWD AND LEAVES ITS
REMAINS AS A FRONTAL WAVE COMING OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLC REGION LATE PERIOD. GFS SERIES 00Z AND 06Z/NOGAPS AND GFS ENS
AND MEANS ALONG WITH LATEST GHM LEAVE IKE TO DIE IN NRN MEXICO. SO
TWO DISTINCT CAMPS SEEN HERE. HISTORICALLY THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY
TWO RECURVING STORMS COMING INTO THIS REGION..CARLA IN 1961 AND
ANOTHER IN 1875 OUT OF 8 STORMS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR
TO CARLA BUT THE TROF THAT PICKED CARLA UP WAS DEEPER AND
STRONGER. ECMWF ENS AND MEAN SHOW A STRONG A FAIRLY HIGH SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS ADDING TO UNCERTAINTY. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SWRN CONUS
TROF AND RIDGE EROSION AS SEEN BY ECMWF AND UKMET FOR A N AND THEN
NEWD EJECTION. HPC PROGS ADJUSTED FOR EXTRAPOLATION FROM NHC DAY 5
POINT IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HPC SOLUTION FOR NOW IS TOWARDS ECMWF
DAYS 3/4 FRI-SAT AND TO BLEND IN A DOMINANT ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS
5-7 SUN-TUES. THIS SUPRESSES THE OP ECMWF SWD WITH A WEAKER SFC
REFLECTION ACROSS LOWER TN VALLEY DAY 6 MON AND WITH A MINOR
FRONTAL WAVE EXITING THE SERN SEABOARD/MID ATLC REGION DAY 7 TUES.
SEE NHC WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS.
ROSENSTEIN

I found especially interesting their remarks about 2 model camps, and the historical discussion about Carla and past recurving storms.
Full text: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
Graphics:

[x-y-no]

The other question is if they can't be confident with where landfall is going to occur - and it's understandable that science does have its limitations - why bother plotting/dragging a track further inland when you can't be sure where it will land in the first place?

The only way one improves is by continual practice. It's not so long ago that there was far less confidence in the three day track than there is today. And there's value in having a transparent, public process - educating public officials and the public as to the state of our forecasting ability is all to the good, IMHO.

[karenfromheaven]

[SNIP]
The other question is if they can't be confident with where landfall is going to occur - and it's understandable that science does have its limitations - why bother plotting/dragging a track further inland when you can't be sure where it will land in the first place?

The track is used to establish the error cone, and that can be an important planning tool for inland locations. Once the NHC discontinues its advisories, it hands over forecast responsibility to the HPC (they are already thinking about it - see my post above), who then issue advisories to help with the sometimes enormous continuing effects from rain and flooding.

[teal61]

FWIW, the 12z NAM shows a turn further north and a bit faster through 72 hours than the 6z. Yes I know its the NAM

[jasons2k]

The HPC discussion is excellent, thanks for posting that. Either scenario is plausible....leaving me scratching my head. This one will be a test of patience.

[Aristotle]

Here is my Guess:

Ike follows a generally nnw track into just south of Galveston.

This is supported by 2 facts.

1- HWRF seems to have Ike catching the trough

2- This whole time all the models have had Ike re curving northward and Ike has Defied them. Now the NHC GFS and GDFL have this going generally west and giving up on the NW N re curve. Murphy has my back on this one fur sure. This must now by murphy's law Re curve.


"Murphy was just a guy so his laws have to real effect on the outcome of the weather" "Please consider Murphy and amateur thats always right"

[jasons2k]

One thing to notice with this trough coming in is that timing will be critical. That's laid-out in the HPC dicussion.

Now look at how fast the GFS pushes IKE across the Gulf. Anyone think Ike will landfall at 96 hours?

[teal61]

NAM 84 hours, landfall near CRP. A fairly large shift to the north as the 06z run was headed to or just south of BRO.

[gboudx]

Bit of an off-topic discussion. Last night one of the DFW TV mets was discussing Ike and showed a graphic with the model runs into STX, except of course for the CLP5 which was over SELA. He actually mentioned that one as a possibility and said that it may be seeing something that the other's weren't. Am I wrong to have laughed out loud at that?