ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

The model roller coaster continues....

[crazycajuncane]

Local met this morning on KATC is trying to keep the calm. Every weather segment he says, "Remember we may be in the middle of the cone, but we have seen a 400 mile difference in the 5 day cone."

He is covering it and all the models. Right now we are in the middle of the cone, but I've seen the ole' cone swing left and right several times over the years. The only thing is more models are bunching together and he is saying that there isn't much change expected to steer this storm down the road. So basically... wait and see. Don't panic, but be ready. Wise words. I don't like hype 6 days out. I want facts!

[x-y-no]

Well, maybe I wasn't so crazy yesterday when I argued for much slower motion than forecast ...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well, maybe I wasn't so crazy yesterday when I argued for much slower motion than forecast ...

was lookin for you...He has moved NADA all morning..

[Hurricane Cheese]

My big question this morning is why the heck isn't Gustav moving? Shouldn't he be feeling the effects from the high to his north by now?

[cycloneye]

The first visible pic for today:

[x-y-no]

6Z sounding at Kingston:



That ridge is still sitting there smack across Gustav's path. 500mb height 5870m, that's up 10m from 0z. 0z wind direction was NE, at 6z it's N.

[xironman]

My big question this morning is why the heck isn't Gustav moving? Shouldn't he be feeling the effects from the high to his north by now?

I have it moving about 10 miles in two hours

[Hurricane Cheese]

My big question this morning is why the heck isn't Gustav moving? Shouldn't he be feeling the effects from the high to his north by now?

I have it moving about 10 miles in two hours

Looking at the IR loops I'd tend to agree with you. It appears we have a W-WNW motion at only several miles per hour. Nearly stagnant, but not quite.

[Blown Away]

Well, maybe I wasn't so crazy yesterday when I argued for much slower motion than forecast ...

was lookin for you...He has moved NADA all morning..

No way Gus is moving 5 mph, unless the LLC popped out from under the convection and is moving W semi exposed, which I don't think is happening.

[TheShrimper]

There isn't much steering influences at the time where Gus is at. The high has yet to estabilh itself, Gus is still to it's SE, infact the ULL seen on WV is causing a little weakness to the NE. Nothing is etched in stone here.

[HURAKAN]

[xironman]

I was using the recon messages and the NHC position.

[fasterdisaster]

He looks great for being near or on Haiti so long.

[x-y-no]

There isn't much steering influences at the time where Gus is at. The high has yet to estabilh itself, Gus is still to it's SE, infact the ULL seen on WV is causing a little weakness to the NE. Nothing is etched in stone here.

I disagree there. The mid-level ridge is all too well established - so much that it's wrapped around to the west and extending well south of Jamaica. That's a recipe for slow movement.

[AJC3]

Though the WNW motion is painfuly slow, Gus is certainly not stationary. Recon and radar show this to be the case. Here's a 13-hour time lapse from Gran Piedra...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/261800_270700.gif

[Hurricane Cheese]

Though the WNW motion is painfuly slow, Gus is certainly not stationary. Recon and radar show this to be the case. Here's a 13-hour time lapse from Gran Piedra...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/261800_270700.gif

Really can see the movement there, also looks to be very close to the NHC track. He's slow, but he's westbound

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Well the GFS just might be on to something. I would not discount that. I envision gradual right shifts over the next couple of days because Gustav is simply not going to be moving as fast as previously thought with a ridge wrapped around to his West. That should allow the well-advertised trough to push into the GOM before Gustav makes alot of headway into the Central GOM.

Remember this is the summer of ephemeral ridging in the GOM and persistent troughiness. It would not be the first time the models had to back down on ridging.

snippet from 5AM NHC discussion

THE GFS IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER EARLY ON...TAKING THE
STORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0843.shtml

[jlauderdal]

My big question this morning is why the heck isn't Gustav moving? Shouldn't he be feeling the effects from the high to his north by now?

not unusual to see a stall before a change in direction, im not saying that is what is happening but just throwing out the idea

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Convection increasing near or over the LLC.