ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Since Bertha 1996 and 2008 where a lot alike. Lets see if Dolly 1996 and 2008 turn out a lot alike?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm. Electricity. We got our power back on in unincorporated Harris County near Spring after Rita in well under a day, but people in Eastern Harris county, Humble and points East, on the Entergy grid, were out for two weeks, and there were stories of people stealing gas powered generators the railroad was setting out to power crossing signals.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Since Bertha 1996 and 2008 where a lot alike. Lets see if Dolly 1996 and 2008 turn out a lot alike?

Then Edouard will be a big hurricane that sideswipes Nantucket.

[jeff]

jeff, the DFW NWS mentioned this system in the afternoon AFD, but mentioned that the Upper Level Ridge in the plains will steer it into South TX because it appears it will intensify next week. Thoughts?

Ridging does look fairly strong over the eastern GOM into LA from the east and then an extension westward but further north across TX. The upper TUTT axis over S TX now will move westward allowing ridging to build in from the east Monday/Tuesday. Question is how this ridge retreats on Wed/Thurs. and what weakness opens over S TX in that period. Latest guidance seems to tink the ridge remains strong and keeps the system heading more west into N MX. While this is a likely solution I still think the system will really slow in the western Gulf and may meander toward the NW or even NNW as it reaches the SW side of the eastern Gulf ridge and feels some of the weakness over TX. Of course intenisty may play a part by this time also and center re-formations in the shorter term may have bigger track impacts in the longer term.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think recon will fly tonight


Will cross post on recon thread.

Code: Select all

URNT15 KNHC 200127
AF301 WXWXA 08072001301        HDOB 01 20080720
011700 1742N 06448W 0169 00000 9990 +259 +999 360000 000 999 999 25
011730 1742N 06448W 0168 00000 9990 +257 +999 360000 000 999 999 25
011800 1742N 06448W 0168 00000 0157 +260 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
011830 1742N 06448W 0167 00000 0156 +260 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
011900 1742N 06448W 0167 00000 0155 +260 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
011930 1742N 06448W 0167 00000 0156 +259 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012000 1742N 06448W 0168 00000 0157 +257 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012030 1742N 06448W 0167 00000 0156 +255 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012100 1742N 06448W 0165 00000 0155 +255 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012130 1742N 06448W 0164 00000 0154 +255 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012200 1742N 06448W 0163 00000 0152 +255 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012230 1742N 06448W 0161 00000 0151 +254 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012300 1742N 06448W 0160 00000 0149 +252 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012330 1742N 06449W 0157 00000 0147 +250 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012400 1742N 06449W 0155 00000 0144 +250 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012430 1742N 06449W 0153 00000 0142 +250 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012500 1742N 06449W 0152 00000 0140 +249 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012530 1742N 06449W 0150 00000 0139 +251 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012600 1742N 06449W 0151 00000 0140 +250 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
012630 1742N 06449W 0151 00000 0141 +250 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
$$


[Sanibel]

I think it has slowed down. Suggest shift poleward of center. Still under ULL hinderance. No need to comment until tomorrow. Looks ready to leap (still) once it gets favorability.

[cycloneye]

WXWXA

Means training mission.

[jhamps10]

Hmmm. Electricity. We got our power back on in unincorporated Harris County near Spring after Rita in well under a day, but people in Eastern Harris county, Humble and points East, on the Entergy grid, were out for two weeks, and there were stories of people stealing gas powered generators the railroad was setting out to power crossing signals.

OT but on the Entergy grid during rita, wasn't entergy basically stuck between a rock and a hard place because of their bankruptcy filing thanks to Katrina?

[Ivanhater]

jeff, the DFW NWS mentioned this system in the afternoon AFD, but mentioned that the Upper Level Ridge in the plains will steer it into South TX because it appears it will intensify next week. Thoughts?

Ridging does look fairly strong over the eastern GOM into LA from the east and then an extension westward but further north across TX. The upper TUTT axis over S TX now will move westward allowing ridging to build in from the east Monday/Tuesday. Question is how this ridge retreats on Wed/Thurs. and what weakness opens over S TX in that period. Latest guidance seems to tink the ridge remains strong and keeps the system heading more west into N MX. While this is a likely solution I still think the system will really slow in the western Gulf and may meander toward the NW or even NNW as it reaches the SW side of the eastern Gulf ridge and feels some of the weakness over TX. Of course intenisty may play a part by this time also and center re-formations in the shorter term may have bigger track impacts in the longer term.

I was looking at some of the models this morning showing a huge high centered over Mexico..wouldnt that block it from going into Mexico?

[stevetampa33614]

Since Bertha 1996 and 2008 where a lot alike. Lets see if Dolly 1996 and 2008 turn out a lot alike?

Well Bertha 1996 hit North Carolina correct?

Fascinating coincidences.

And I cant still get over 3 tropical Systems in july so far with potentially 2 more in the pipes in the next 48 hours. I am kinda worried about august. If 2 more storms form in the next 48 like models indicate the season has match 2005 for July. Intensity wise let us not forget Bertha was once a Cat 3.

[JonathanBelles]

viewtopic.php?p=1743284#p1743284

**notice this forecast is now old concerning the TS Warning on Cristobal**

[coreyl]

Was it supposed to slow down?

[Ivanhater]

jeff, the DFW NWS mentioned this system in the afternoon AFD, but mentioned that the Upper Level Ridge in the plains will steer it into South TX because it appears it will intensify next week. Thoughts?

Ridging does look fairly strong over the eastern GOM into LA from the east and then an extension westward but further north across TX. The upper TUTT axis over S TX now will move westward allowing ridging to build in from the east Monday/Tuesday. Question is how this ridge retreats on Wed/Thurs. and what weakness opens over S TX in that period. Latest guidance seems to tink the ridge remains strong and keeps the system heading more west into N MX. While this is a likely solution I still think the system will really slow in the western Gulf and may meander toward the NW or even NNW as it reaches the SW side of the eastern Gulf ridge and feels some of the weakness over TX. Of course intenisty may play a part by this time also and center re-formations in the shorter term may have bigger track impacts in the longer term.

I was looking at some of the models this morning showing a huge high centered over Mexico..wouldnt that block it from going into Mexico?

[Frank P]

Station 42057 at 16.83 N 81.50, which is just west of the northern most and biggest area of convection showing NE winds (50 deg) at 17k with gusts to 19k

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=CST

[deltadog03]

what yall think around 16.5N and 80W?? IR2 looks like there might be some low level clouds spinning underneath that big burst of convection.

[TexWx]

I'd say 17 and 79

[Sanibel]

If the center reforms it will be poleward. The swirl looks to be in transition from the southern location to one further north.

[Just Joshing You]

I'm pretty certain it's a TS right now, in my un-official and only based on knowledge, guess.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

In the last image you notice some spin but without visible, you never know.

[Javlin]

what yall think around 16.5N and 80W?? IR2 looks like there might be some low level clouds spinning underneath that big burst of convection.

Tough to say my eyes not that well trained but you do notice a little of something there.