ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[msbee]

Oh I'm so glad I read that... NOT!!
I've seen too many storms change drastically in intensity forecasts in only a few hours. It's still the most difficult part of the forecast. I hope this doesn't get any stronger, but honestly, while it's in the Caribbean, I don't see anything to stop it.

bvigal,

You can take comfort in the fact that hurricane force winds are forecast to only extend out to 10-15 miles west of the track and the current forecast takes the center at least 30 miles east of you (assuming it doesn't shift back west). The BVI Office of Disaster Preparedness is a client of ours. Our forecast, based upon the current track and intensity, was for winds of 50-60 mph sustained there.

Is that correct? that the hurricane force winds are only 10-15 miles west of the track?
Then that is good for us too. It's hard to know what to expect here..plenty of rain of course..but the wind factor?
I just don't know

[msbee]

this looks more like a repeat of Lenny as time goes on

Lenny did quite a bit of damage on St. Maarten

[Driftin]

Looking a the satelite I think I see a slight move to the north. does anybody see it?

[HURAKAN]

[expat2carib]

MMMMhhhhhhmmmmm.

Taking a flight tomorrow at 8 in the morning from Dominica to Antigua and from there at 10 to Sint Maarten.

What are the odds getting there?

Where will I be stranded?

Do you guys think they will be flying? Need to go there

[bvigal]

Oh I'm so glad I read that... NOT!!
I've seen too many storms change drastically in intensity forecasts in only a few hours. It's still the most difficult part of the forecast. I hope this doesn't get any stronger, but honestly, while it's in the Caribbean, I don't see anything to stop it.

bvigal,

You can take comfort in the fact that hurricane force winds are forecast to only extend out to 10-15 miles west of the track and the current forecast takes the center at least 30 miles east of you (assuming it doesn't shift back west). The BVI Office of Disaster Preparedness is a client of ours. Our forecast, based upon the current track and intensity, was for winds of 50-60 mph sustained there.

Thanks for the well-wishes! I sure hope you are right!!! My calculations are 16.8 nautical miles at nearest point. NHC's comment has me not the least bit assured it will get no stronger than 85kt: "BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE MODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE...OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A FEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT... SUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD."

[cycloneye]

MMMMhhhhhhmmmmm.

Taking a flight tomorrow at 8 in the morning from Dominica to Antigua and from there at 10 to Sint Maarten.

What are the odds getting there?

Where will I be stranded?

Do you guys think they will be flying? Need to go there

Check with your carrier about your flight if its going or not.I think it will be good in the morning but going downhill in the afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

this looks more like a repeat of Lenny as time goes on

Lenny did quite a bit of damage on St. Maarten

Lenny was almost a Cat 5 when he hit...

[expat2carib]

MMMMhhhhhhmmmmm.

Taking a flight tomorrow at 8 in the morning from Dominica to Antigua and from there at 10 to Sint Maarten.

What are the odds getting there?

Where will I be stranded?

Do you guys think they will be flying? Need to go there

Check with your carrier about your flight if its going or not.I think it will be good in the morning but going downhill in the afternoon.

It's LIAT air No info at all!

[caribepr]

MMMMhhhhhhmmmmm.

Taking a flight tomorrow at 8 in the morning from Dominica to Antigua and from there at 10 to Sint Maarten.

What are the odds getting there?

Where will I be stranded?

Do you guys think they will be flying? Need to go there

Check with your carrier about your flight if its going or not.I think it will be good in the morning but going downhill in the afternoon.

It's LIAT air No info at all!

We call LIAT Leave Island Any Time. If you can get into island head, the delays will be okay. Just talk to them, they usually take care of you where ever. They've called my boss, hotels, fed me etc when I was...stranded...with them. But you have to ask!!! I'm sort of aggressvie that way.

[bvigal]

MMMMhhhhhhmmmmm.

Taking a flight tomorrow at 8 in the morning from Dominica to Antigua and from there at 10 to Sint Maarten.

What are the odds getting there?

Where will I be stranded?

Do you guys think they will be flying? Need to go there

Check with your carrier about your flight if its going or not.I think it will be good in the morning but going downhill in the afternoon.

It's LIAT air No info at all!

LIAT what else can you say? I agree with Luis. If you don't have delays keeping you from arriving during the morning, it's doable. Of course, that would also be subject to there being no strong thunderstorms over the airport. They won't land in that stuff, they'll hold in Antigua.
- luggage in another town -there's a million of them, LOL!!

[wxman57]

wobble watch is in effect! Every wobble from now on, will change the outcome here in Puerto Rico !

The current forecast track and wind radii keeps San Juan out of all TS force winds, by the way.

I was going to ask...what about us, because what applies to SJ does NOT apply to Culebra...and then I realized I was turning into someone (wow...serious long thunder roll here) I can't stand, asking the eternal, *tell me I'm going to be okay. So never mind. But it would be a delight if some day we know more faster. I personally don't think that will ever happen, because Nature does as Nature does...closer would be fine though!

Based on the current forecast track and wind radii, you'd see peak winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph there. Again, assuming a perfect forecast track. Omar is really a small storm - for now.

[expat2carib]

Thanks you guys and girls!

I guess I have to take the chance. have to leave on a 2 hour ride to the airport at 5.30 in the morning.

As said I need to go...... so it's going to be exiting to see where I end.

It's a risk being with a Lenny clone on Sint Maarten though.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the dreaded pinhole eye...

[cycloneye]

14/2332 UTC 14.1N 68.2W T4.0/4.0 OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[bvigal]

Can you put that NRL pic on imageshack, it's hanging my computer. Thanks.

[caribepr]

The current forecast track and wind radii keeps San Juan out of all TS force winds, by the way.[/quote]
I was going to ask...what about us, because what applies to SJ does NOT apply to Culebra...and then I realized I was turning into someone (wow...serious long thunder roll here) I can't stand, asking the eternal, *tell me I'm going to be okay. So never mind. But it would be a delight if some day we know more faster. I personally don't think that will ever happen, because Nature does as Nature does...closer would be fine though![/quote]

Based on the current forecast track and wind radii, you'd see peak winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph there. Again, assuming a perfect forecast track. Omar is really a small storm - for now.[/quote]
Wow. Gotcha on the perfect forecast idea. Those winds are nothing at all. Hope it holds.

This is all messed up but I'm too tired to fix it...hope you get the idea

[wxman57]

Latest models initialized at 65 kts. It'll be Hurricane Omar on the next advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Latest models initialized at 65 kts. It'll be Hurricane Omar on the next advisory.

Very conservative IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 0z:

AL, 15, 2008101500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 683W, 65, 979, HU

65 knots