ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Cat5x]

On a side note, Anyone else think this will go right to a TS ? and skip TD.

How many times has that happened already this year. Isn't that proof that the NHC waits too long to classify a TD ?

Yeah so there is no LLC but if it has deep convenction persistant for 12 + hours, nice outflow, in 85+ degree water no sheer and a Mid level circulation t hat is building to the ground. I don't understand why that isn't enough to classify a TD? They wait till it is 100% perfect and it is already a TS.

I think it will, and no, it isn't proof that NHC waits too long. Many times waves are embedded in strong low level easterly flow. In these conditions it is extremely difficult to close off a center. But b/c the ambient low level environment is already characterized by strong winds, the wave helps to enhance these, and so these tropical waves can often have TS-force winds. Once the LLC finally is able to close off, the system already has TS-force winds, and so it jumps the TD stage.

There is no LLC. By definition that is not a TC. This is all convection but no organization. No banding visible on radar, let alone satellite.

Honestly, do you really think right now this is just a "Wave" and then at some time tonight, maybe 5:20am someone at the NHC will say, ok its upgraded, it just become a TS. So like 5:19am is a wave and then boom 5:20 its a tropical storm. That sounds like a silly question but honestly i don't think this system explodes that fast. Seems to me even for system that explode they still take place over several hours. So if they wait to the point it becomes a TS i don't think it went from Wave to TS in matter of minutes. So in essence they waited to long to classify it a TD. I get the closed circulation thing, but let me ask you this.

Doesn't it seem odd that something can spin to TS strenght before it can spin to TD strenght?


Im looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html and I see banding. its not a lot of banding but there is definetly bands and some awesome outflow. I've seen hurricanes with worse outflow then this invest.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a LLC but it is very broad. If you get a west, northwest wind on the weakest part of the system you can say it is closed. The nhc has upgraded systems based on finding a west wind many times, I don't went to hear that it don't have a LLC again. It has a broad one that might not be defined enough to be upgraded but can you prove that it is open on a stronger quad?

See it can be argued. I personally feel that the nhc is not wrong because the system is very broad, but it has been done before.

[RL3AO]

Honestly, do you really think right now this is just a "Wave"

Yes.

[fasterdisaster]

If this makes it to TD or even TS I think Hispaniola might rain on our parade...

[Cat5x]

Look dude... That's the way meteorology works. If there is no closed low then by definition it's not a tropical depression.There is no way around it or 'it looks good enough to be', 'the winds are strong enough'...By the laws of science it just isn't a tropical depression, I can go around wanting to call a dog a cat cause it has fur, but that doesn't mean it is one.

Cold fronts bring stronger winds at times, should we throw out the fact that they are 'cold fronts' and issue tropical storm warnings for it.. There are warnings in place by various meteorological organizations to put forward warnings of conditions. But until this becomes a depression, it's a local weather services duties, not the NHC

The calling a dog a cat because of far is not fair, low blow. apples and oranges..

This one is more like, there is smoke coming out if it, it has a red glow, its hot, but i don't see a flame so its not "fire" but if you touch it, it will burn you. Its basically a technicality at this point. It has all of the characteristics of a TS but does not have that well defind llc... a mid level circulation but no llc. Im just saying if it is 95% of something lets cut the red tape and name it already!

[carolina_73]

Have you guys noticed that jog to the west. It almost looks like a slight south of west in a couple of frames. It looks to be headed straight for Hispaniola if it doesn't gain some latitude real soon. Could be a big break for the U.S.

[Cat5x]

I still can't believe that is just a wave. wow That looks like Hugo with out an eye.

[RL3AO]

Science has rules and definitions. It doesn't meet the definition of a tropical cyclone. Its a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave. Puerto Rico is under a flood watch and some places a warning. If strong winds are expected a special weather statement will be issued.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look dude... That's the way meteorology works. If there is no closed low then by definition it's not a tropical depression.There is no way around it or 'it looks good enough to be', 'the winds are strong enough'...By the laws of science it just isn't a tropical depression, I can go around wanting to call a dog a cat cause it has fur, but that doesn't mean it is one.

Cold fronts bring stronger winds at times, should we throw out the fact that they are 'cold fronts' and issue tropical storm warnings for it.. There are warnings in place by various meteorological organizations to put forward warnings of conditions. But until this becomes a depression, it's a local weather services duties, not the NHC

The calling a dog a cat because of far is not fair, low blow. apples and oranges..

This one is more like, there is smoke coming out if it, it has a red glow, its hot, but i don't see a flame so its not "fire" but if you touch it, it will burn you. Its basically a technicality at this point. It has all of the characteristics of a TS but does not have that well defind llc... a mid level circulation but no llc. Im just saying if it is 95% of something lets cut the red tape and name it already!

It is not how it works. You have to wait to see a well defined LLC to develop to get a tropical cyclone, a LLC is a closed surface wind field near or at the surface. That is the most important thing, but I do believe it has a broad one. As I keep on saying. Yes it has tropical storm force wind but if the LLC is so broad that the nhc feels it is not upgradeable then they won't upgrade it. We need to watch for a more defined LLC to form inside of it later today.

[Cyclenall]

Has anyone else noticed how amazingly similar this thing is to Tropical Storm Chris 2006? Everything about it is similar, except the model guidance and mid level shear. Even the evolution of it's structure is the same with that huge blow-up early this morning.

PR looks to be getting some blacks on the AVN. Heavy rain for them.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Has anyone else noticed how amazingly similar this thing is to Tropical Storm Chris 2006? Everything about it is similar, except the model guidance and mid level shear. Even the evolution of it's structure is the same with that huge blow-up early this morning.

PR looks to be getting some blacks on the AVN. Heavy rain for them.

In a way this reminds me more of a weaker Jeanne in this area.

[Cat5x]

Have you guys noticed that jog to the west. It almost looks like a slight south of west in a couple of frames. It looks to be headed straight for Hispaniola if it doesn't gain some latitude real soon. Could be a big break for the U.S.

Or it will make it weaker which then the steering currents wont grab it and turn it north, so it will get weaker over hispaniola then possibly cuba, but then if there is anythng left it would likely make it to the GOM, the hot tub it is, and could regenerate and miss that north turn.

Could that be possible ?

[Hurricane Cheese]

Again, 92L seems to be moving due west if not slightly south of west at a fairly steady clip. A date with the mountains of DR are looming, and if it continues to race to the west like this then residents in the gulf better continue to take further precaution, despite some of the 00Z models predicting a curve to the right.

[wxsouth]

Base velocity from San Juan radar along with sfc obs suggest what there is of a center is moving across central Puerto Rico as we speak. Very ill-defined, however, and yes...its going to be a close call with Hispaniola. Ill defined low level center is becoming aligned with mid-level center investigated by P-3. Land interaction may continue to keep development somewhat in check. Flash flooding a very serious concern now for Puerto Rico.

[wxmann_91]

Honestly, do you really think right now this is just a "Wave" and then at some time tonight, maybe 5:20am someone at the NHC will say, ok its upgraded, it just become a TS. So like 5:19am is a wave and then boom 5:20 its a tropical storm. That sounds like a silly question but honestly i don't think this system explodes that fast. Seems to me even for system that explode they still take place over several hours. So if they wait to the point it becomes a TS i don't think it went from Wave to TS in matter of minutes. So in essence they waited to long to classify it a TD. I get the closed circulation thing, but let me ask you this.

Doesn't it seem odd that something can spin to TS strenght before it can spin to TD strenght?


Im looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html and I see banding. its not a lot of banding but there is definetly bands and some awesome outflow. I've seen hurricanes with worse outflow then this invest.

TW--> TS is not "exploding". It's not odd, it's perfectly normal. You can have no center, with winds of TS strength, then 6 hr later, a center, with winds of TS strength. Only difference: a center. That's a big step but it's not explosive by any means.

There may be outflow but it doesn't mean much when there's strong low level easterly winds shredding apart any attempts at an LLC. I think that's what's been the problem with 92L today. Haven't looked at soundings yet but perhaps the models initialized poorly at H85 and underestimated the strength of the easterly LLJ.

[Cat5x]

Ok Just south of PONCE http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes does that look like a rotation, that would also match the center of the convection on here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html



Question has any system gone from INVEST to hurricane ?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok Just south of PONCE http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes does that look like a rotation, that would also match the center of the convection on here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html



Question has any system gone from INVEST to hurricane ?

I believe there was a Noal in the northern Atlantic that did so. 2001?

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, Hurricane Noel in 2001, but it was an extratropical cyclone WITH a LLC that already had strong winds before it acquired a warm core.

You simply cannot expect a tropical wave to go from TW to Hurricane because they simply don't strengthen much without a low level circulation. If you don't have a LLC, the system WILL NOT strengthen. Why call it a tropical cyclone right now (with no LLC) and have it weaken to just an area of high clouds 6 hours later? Doesn't make sense.

This system is definitely NOT the most impressive tropical wave I've seen. This is just a strong tropical wave at this point and there's been many in the past.

The mountains of Hispaniola await...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Honestly, do you really think right now this is just a "Wave" and then at some time tonight, maybe 5:20am someone at the NHC will say, ok its upgraded, it just become a TS. So like 5:19am is a wave and then boom 5:20 its a tropical storm. That sounds like a silly question but honestly i don't think this system explodes that fast. Seems to me even for system that explode they still take place over several hours. So if they wait to the point it becomes a TS i don't think it went from Wave to TS in matter of minutes. So in essence they waited to long to classify it a TD. I get the closed circulation thing, but let me ask you this.

Doesn't it seem odd that something can spin to TS strenght before it can spin to TD strenght?


Im looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html and I see banding. its not a lot of banding but there is definetly bands and some awesome outflow. I've seen hurricanes with worse outflow then this invest.

TW--> TS is not "exploding". It's not odd, it's perfectly normal. You can have no center, with winds of TS strength, then 6 hr later, a center, with winds of TS strength. Only difference: a center. That's a big step but it's not explosive by any means.

There may be outflow but it doesn't mean much when there's strong low level easterly winds shredding apart any attempts at an LLC. I think that's what's been the problem with 92L today. Haven't looked at soundings yet but perhaps the models initialized poorly at H85 and underestimated the strength of the easterly LLJ.

It does have a broad LLC but as you say it has eastly flow going through it. I believe thes factors that have played out for the last few weeks could become part of what limits tropical cyclone development for the rest of the month. I don't believe the Atlantic is that favorable overall.

Could this become a tropical storm later today sure it could. But then we will have to watch where the LLC forms, if to far south it will have a problem with Hati,DR.

I expect things to change once into the peak. But to say 17 named storms is against my way of thinking.

[Cat5x]

Honestly, do you really think right now this is just a "Wave" and then at some time tonight, maybe 5:20am someone at the NHC will say, ok its upgraded, it just become a TS. So like 5:19am is a wave and then boom 5:20 its a tropical storm. That sounds like a silly question but honestly i don't think this system explodes that fast. Seems to me even for system that explode they still take place over several hours. So if they wait to the point it becomes a TS i don't think it went from Wave to TS in matter of minutes. So in essence they waited to long to classify it a TD. I get the closed circulation thing, but let me ask you this.

Doesn't it seem odd that something can spin to TS strenght before it can spin to TD strenght?


Im looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html and I see banding. its not a lot of banding but there is definetly bands and some awesome outflow. I've seen hurricanes with worse outflow then this invest.

TW--> TS is not "exploding". It's not odd, it's perfectly normal. You can have no center, with winds of TS strength, then 6 hr later, a center, with winds of TS strength. Only difference: a center. That's a big step but it's not explosive by any means.

There may be outflow but it doesn't mean much when there's strong low level easterly winds shredding apart any attempts at an LLC. I think that's what's been the problem with 92L today. Haven't looked at soundings yet but perhaps the models initialized poorly at H85 and underestimated the strength of the easterly LLJ.

You see sheer ? It looks like a pefect circle. With out flow uninhibited on all sides. I guess i have a lot to learn if you saying sheer is affecting this system when to the naked eye it looks fine.

Just south of PONCE http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes is that a circulation?