ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

AF plane confirms Cat 4, with 128 kt FL winds and 118 kt SFMR.

New model run just initialized at 115 kts = 132 mph. Will be rounded down to 130 making Ike a borderline 3-4.

[cape_escape]

Inagua is going to have an interesting night tonight.



Kate is the best I can do. Donna is too far north and east:

I don't want anyone to have to deal with Ike, but I do hope you are correct about the Donna scenerio!

[CrazyC83]

AF plane confirms Cat 4, with 128 kt FL winds and 118 kt SFMR.

New model run just initialized at 115 kts = 132 mph. Will be rounded down to 130 making Ike a borderline 3-4.

Actually it will be rounded to 135 mph since that falls in Cat 4.

[KWT]

Well Ike seems to be at 115kts, a good deal higher then what was expected at this stage by the NHC it seems after they busted with that intial strength estimate, inner core looks good even if there is so dry air on the SW side.

I personally am more interesed in what Ike does over Cuba and how much it weakens, I think even if its down to a 35kts there is still every chance with the good conditions and probably upwards of 48-72hrs over very warm waters still Ike will be a cat-2/3 hurricane at landfall.

[Brent]

I personally am more interesed in what Ike does over Cuba and how much it weakens, I think even if its down to a 35kts there is still every chance with the good conditions and probably upwards of 48-72hrs over very warm waters still Ike will be a cat-2/3 hurricane at landfall.

That's what I'm most interested in as well, the models still don't agree on whether it'll spend a day or more over Cuba, or just skim the coast. Gonna make a huge difference.

Surprised it's a Cat 4 now.

[cycloneye]

KWT,anything is possible with this not usual movement,so what if Ike moves much more SW and sneaks into the Windward passage? I know its not probable but you never know.As a saying says,"Never say never in the tropics."

[Sanibel]

Surprised it's a Cat 4 now.

I'm not. This storm has had an excellent satellite look for a while now. Hazy overcast covering a muscular core that lacked only the eye blowing out clear.

[KWT]

Who knows, to be honest as wxman57 has been saying recently its around 255 and has been pretty much the whole day so doubt that will changhe much now though the eye is obviously wobbling around a little, right now on a slight SW jog.

Brent, I think given its still heading WSW odds are this will go inland into Cuba, it'd have to stop this WSW motion pretty much now if it wants to skim up the coast.

I've got to admit I'm not all that surprisied its at 115ktseither, the big blow up on the eastern side probably helped it out.

[Thunder44]

134kt is the highest FL wind from the NOAA plane. They also found s SFMR wind at 119kt. This looks like a Cat 4 again.

[CrazyC83]

134kt is the highest FL wind from the NOAA plane. They also found s SFMR wind at 119kt. This looks like a Cat 4 again.

Both planes have data supporting Cat 4 intensity.

[canes04]

Ike should turn due west tonight and skim the Cuban coast.
South Floridians do not let your guard down, anything is possible with this unique track.

We should have a better idea where he's going in 24 hours.

As Max would say anything southeast of us bears watching.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If Ike continues to move WSW or SW, he could make make landfall in Cuba and makes his way into the Caribbean.

[Vortex]

It would appear the last 1 hour or 2 Ike has slowed.

[Sanibel]

Wikipedia:

Inagua is the southernmost district of the Bahamas comprising the islands of Great Inagua and Little Inagua.

Great Inagua is the third largest island in the Bahamas at 596 sq mi (1544 km²) and lies about 55 miles (90 km) from the eastern tip of Cuba. The island is about 55 x 19 miles (90 x 30 km) in extent, the highest point being 108 ft (33 m) on East Hill. It encloses several lakes, most notably the 12-mile long Lake Windsor (also called Lake Rosa) which occupies nearly 1/4 of the interior. The population of Great Inagua is 969 (2000 census).

The island's capital and only harbour is Matthew Town, named after George Matthew a 19th century Governor of the Bahamas. This town houses the Morton Salt Company’s main facility, producing 500 tonnes of sea salt a year - the second largest solar saline operation in North America and Inagua's main industry. Great Inagua Airport (IATA: IGA, ICAO: MYIG) is located nearby.

There is a large bird sanctuary in the centre of the island with a population of more than 80,000 of West Indian flamingoes and many other exotic birds such as roseate spoonbills, pelicans, herons, egrets, and Bahama pintail ducks.

The neighbouring Little Inagua five miles to the northeast is uninhabited and occupied by a Land and Sea Park. It is 30 sq mi and has herds of wild donkeys and goats (descendants of stock introduced by the French). Little Inagua has a large protective reef that prevents boats from coming too close.

The original settler name Heneagua was derived from a Spanish expression meaning 'water is to be found there'. Another interesting name origin is that it's an anagram of 'iguana', which is found in large quantities on the island (this from the Bahamas official website).

Local legend has it that former Haitian tyrant Henri Christophe, king of Haiti from 1811 to 1820, buried treasure at the Northeast Point of Great Inagua where he had a summer retreat.

Several documented treasure laden ships were destroyed on Inaguan reefs between the years of 1500 and 1825. The two most valuable wrecks lost off the Inaguas were treasure-laden Spanish galleons; the Santa Rose (1599) and the Infanta (1788). Other ships of considerable value were British HMS Statira and HMS Lowestoffe in 1802, and French Le Count De Paix in 1713.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like Ikey is getting wider. Possibly going to end up being a big one?

[ConvergenceZone]

Who knows, to be honest as wxman57 has been saying recently its around 255 and has been pretty much the whole day so doubt that will changhe much now though the eye is obviously wobbling around a little, right now on a slight SW jog.

Brent, I think given its still heading WSW odds are this will go inland into Cuba, it'd have to stop this WSW motion pretty much now if it wants to skim up the coast.

I've got to admit I'm not all that surprisied its at 115ktseither, the big blow up on the eastern side probably helped it out.

KWT, I agree with you, although if it's looking that certain that it will go inland into Cuba moving west south west, then there's also the possibility that it will cross Cuba and then be south of cuba in the carib as it moves towards the Gulf, and that could mean intense strengthening as well. I know there's a model that depicts it moving towards the Gulf south of Cuba that would be really bad for the intensity.....

[KWT]

I suspect that the WSW motion continues for another 12hrs then eases off to a nearly westerly motion. Exactly what strength Ike comes out at depends quite a lot on just how much land it tracks over and also how close to the coast it ends up being.

Sanibel, i hopeeveryone on that island are out of there could the island will be in no fit shape for a long time I suspect...

[jinftl]

The FL Keys...esp. lower Keys might have to deal with some aspects of Ike....hopefully everyone is taking the surge threat of such a storm seriously and will evacuate as planned.

[CW0262]

It would appear the last 1 hour or 2 Ike has slowed.

I see that to, quite a bit it seems

[Cyclenall]

I agree, the NHC made a mistake at 11:00 am and when I first got on at 2 pm I took one look and knew this was no category 2 hurricane. It could be up to 110 knots now with the pressure falling. I have no idea why the NHC was using the computer estimates again instead of Recon, mind boggling.

The track is quite simply insane. This is going from a recurve east of Florida to a substantial miss (as far as right now) of South Florida and maybe even briefly into the Caribbean!! Weird tracks in 2008. I absolutely dispise these land interaction tropical cyclones, I HATE THEM!! This is going to give Cuba another major hurricane when they just went through one of their worst hurricanes in half a century. Haiti will also get more rain to add to the chaos there. I don't see much talk about how bad it's going to be for Cuba.

EDIT: NRL says 115 knots.