ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[physicx07]

Assuming this thing finally develops in the next day or so: I believe the system is going to hug Hispaniola and eastern Cuba and enter the SE Bahamas. There will be some disruption due to land interaction, but it won't be fatal.

As the trough cruises by to the north, I don't expect the ridge to totally breakdown. Instead, I think the weakened ridge will cause steering currents to become fairly weak and slow the storm during the Sunday-Tues. timeframe and it will make a slow approach to south Florida. Then as the ridge builds back in to the north, it will continue towards the GOM. At this point I am discounting the abrupt north turn seen in many of the models. I think the system will hit S. Fla Tues. night or Wed.

Since it will be going slow, and I don't think shear will be too bad, I think the storm could strengthen dramatically over the southern Bahamas on approach to S. Fla. I'm not sure I want to venture a very specific guess at intensity since it's not even a real system yet. But I think it will be a cane as it nears Florida.

[webke]

There are reds popping up on the IR in the area that Normandy was referring to.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Yep those blobs are forming right where the greatest covnergence is...interesting!

The other thing to note is the fact this has such a large region of convection probably because it hasn't got a true center and is just a large region of energy with hints of lower level circulations and also the strong MLC.

[Nimbus]

Scenarios that had this skirting the S. sides of PR, Hisp., and Cuba are looking to be a slight possibility now. No matter what the next couple of days will be all about land interaction now.

Best possible scenario. Since this is a weak system with a poorly defined LLC its likely to chase convection and reform a center just offshore. The mid level center looks like it wants to go WNW off the NW end of Puerto Rico. If there is no strong convective burst further north to recenter under we might get lucky and have this travel over the Dominican.

I'm -removed- that this stays weak and tracks down the spine of Cuba making the jump to south Florida like Ernesto did in 2006 but I doubt the CONUS gets that lucky!

[HURAKAN]

In a related but off-topic 93L is back!

93L: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102448&p=1769921#p1769921

[Meso]

Just what the storm requires... It's done this through-out the past days, fired deep convection in different areas. Now it's developing it in the right area, should they continue to bloom it won't be long before it starts getting it's act together. There is great convergence there and it's got less chance of land interaction. So it's a good thing if you want a storm, bad if you don't

[funster]

Looks like the blob is going to reform on the North side of PR - that may lead to an LLC.

[Normandy]

Even though the dynamics suggest that any development of this system should be north of PR, its starting to get really really hard to ignore that circulation south of PR....its very evident on radar. It should also be noted that the old convective blob is diving wsw.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah your right Normandy there is clearly some sort of circulation down there heading SW, seems strange for it to be heading that way though, MLC heading W/WNW so the two are going to get decoupled totally again if that occurs.

[HURAKAN]

TCFA issued.

[bob rulz]

Is it possible that this system could split into two halves? Or is it more likely that it will simply consolidate around one of the convective regions and the other convection will get wrapped up or just disappear?

[KWT]

Very interesting Hurakan, I think we need to use the box this time around given how broad the circulation in general seems and also given that suspect circulation south of PR at the moment as well.

[HURAKAN]

15/0615 UTC 18.6N 64.9W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

How do you call a disturbance with TS winds and no circulation? A disturbance.

[HURAKAN]

15/0615 UTC 18.6N 64.9W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[KWT]

Whats interesting is that fix also is on the MLC it seems, if that does become the center it should be offshore from PR just and should also only skirt hispaniola.

Hurakan, you can't miss that deep convection south of PR, the circulation really could pop up anywhere if at all!

[alan1961]

Talk about a ball of convection!

Ball of Confusion!

[Emmett_Brown]

15/0615 UTC 18.6N 64.9W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

How do you call a disturbance with TS winds and no circulation? A disturbance.

Hurakan, any idea if there is a recent quickscat pass for 92L?

[HURAKAN]

The circulation south of PR is evident.

Radar loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

[deltadog03]

I guess we will have to wait to see what will happen with the blob. That old sfc low has delayed this from taking off