ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[bvigal]

I saw the tcfa yesterday, so would not draw any conclusions from it. Did NHC bag the STDS? What is wrong up there? I've never seen them act biased like this, but it seems they have one against PR.

[RL3AO]

I saw the tcfa yesterday, so would not draw any conclusions from it. Did NHC bag the STDS? What is wrong up there? I've never seen them act biased like this, but it seems they have one against PR.

The TCFA is re-issued every 24 hours and the STDS expired six hours after being issued. What do they have against PR? It doesn't have a well defined LLC so there is nothing the NHC needs to do.

[HURAKAN]

Don't let your guard down.

[bvigal]

that's right, never mind what I said

[BatzVI]

As I stated in the Observations thread, the rain, etc started around 10:30pm here, but there wasn't much wind.....still raining here this morning....

[HURAKAN]

[carolina_73]

The circulation south of PR is evident.

Radar loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

In this area or further North?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

It looks like you're correct Carolina.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the first VIS, i am leaning toward the center being just NE of PR. Also, GFDL run indicated that the LLC would close off in this area. Note that the GFDL starts with an open wave, so it seems realistic.

[alienstorm]

Radar shows circulation off SW coast of PR, 17.9N 66.6W

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it was not for the DR/Hati in about 24 hours for this system I would be watching for this to develop into a very serious cyclone. This thing is huge and has started to develop well developed banding to the south trying to move into the weak LLC. Hati, DR and Cuba will likely stop it in its tracks soon. If the "LLC" is north of PR its going to be very hard for this system to miss DR.

Now it is not impossible it could form south of the DR/Hati and track south of it. But no model data shows that.

Remember the discussion on this thread about Hati,DR stoping more major hurricanes from hitting Florida. We are about ready to get a first hand look of it being done.

I think this could become fay before landfall.

[carolina_73]

It looks like you're correct Carolina.

If thats the case then the center would be ALOT further south then what the models were showing. If it were to continue to move due west the center could stay a good distance offshore of Hispaniola.

[Emmett_Brown]

Radar shows circulation off SW coast of PR, 17.9N 66.6W

Judging from the last couple of days, my guess is that the center on radar is MLC. Saying this, however, i dont have data to back up the LLC being NE of PR... just that the best track post from Hurakan shows it up there.

All along, this thing has been very poorly stacked... alwasys seems that there is a 100 mi gap between LLC and MLC

[HURAKAN]

It looks like you're correct Carolina.

If thats the case then the center would be ALOT further south then what the models were showing. If it were to continue to move due west the center could stay a good distance offshore of Hispaniola.

It could be a MLC that's visible in the radar, we don't know. The thinking at the moment is that a LLC is trying to develop north of Puerto Rico. Lets see what happens.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. IT IS LOCATED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE YET. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
SATURDAY. EVERYONE WHO IS INTERESTED IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

[HURAKAN]

[funster]

If it was not for the DR/Hati in about 24 hours for this system I would be watching for this to develop into a very serious cyclone. This thing is huge and has started to develop well developed banding to the south trying to move into the weak LLC. Hati, DR and Cuba will likely stop it in its tracks soon. If the "LLC" is north of PR its going to be very hard for this system to miss DR.

Now it is not impossible it could form south of the DR/Hati and track south of it. But no model data shows that.

Remember the discussion on this thread about Hati,DR stoping more major hurricanes from hitting Florida. We are about ready to get a first hand look of it being done.

I think this could become fay before landfall.

The mountains can disrupt a TS or hurricane but they aren't going to do much to a broad center of low pressure. Fay may not even form until Saturday or Sunday.

[KWT]

Its certainly looking interesting down there south of PR, also massivly raises the chance of it slamming into the heart of DR and going right across the island around the highest mountions. Still who knows what will happen this is keeping us guessing!

[Javlin]

Well If this girl goes through or S of PR you can throw the models thus far out it seems and go with the ones with the more S guidance but then in 48hrs there may be nothing to look at?

I made this comment last night because what a few of us saw all day yesterday went S of PR on the last few VIS frames left last night.