TC Bertha

[cpdaman]

I think in the last 3 hours bertha has started her audition for the snickers commercial

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html "not going anywhere for awhile".

[srainhoutx]

HPC had a lot of thoughts concerning Bertha today...Good read

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont know, im not a pro. But it looks like Bertha may be undergoing a transition to being an annular hurricane. Look at it. The bands are consolidating into a very large, very round cdo(per visible imagery) with exceptional outflow in all directions, convection isnt VERY deep, though appears to be increasing slowly as of the last few frames, and a large outer eyewall is forming. If this does happen and Bertha undergoes an EWRC, it looks like she might strengthen tonight and be able to maintain that strength longer. However, this is just my opinion and some pro-met feedback would be nice.

[RL3AO]

I dont know, im not a pro. But it looks like Bertha may be undergoing a transition to being an annular hurricane. Look at it. The bands are consolidating into a very large, very round cdo(per visible imagery) with exceptional outflow in all directions, convection isnt VERY deep, though appears to be increasing slowly as of the last few frames, and a large outer eyewall is forming. If this does happen and Bertha undergoes an EWRC, it looks like she might strengthen tonight and be able to maintain that strength longer. However, this is just my opinion and some pro-met feedback would be nice.

I was thinking that earlier.

[Thunder44]

the dry air has been unable to penetrate the eyewall due to the lack of shear

I should of said the dry air was getting into the outer core.

[caribepr]

Thanks, Chad! Keeping things consolidated in an easily accessible way...what could be better (you'll find something, no doubt!!)?

[RL3AO]

Track map to date.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Track shifts a little west.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Bertha looks awfully good for a hurricane only expected to increase by 5 kts in 2 days. I think it's primed to intensify, but only time will tell.

[RL3AO]

IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS
PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO TURN NORTHWARD AS SHOWN IN THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK. DURING THE 36-72 HR PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BLOCK BERTHA'S
NORTHWARD MOTION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION NEAR OR
TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CURRENTLY AGREE THAT A SECOND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BYPASS BERTHA...LEAVING THE STORM
TRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. IN A MAJOR SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW BERTHA REACHING 40N IN 5 DAYS. BASED ON
THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... WITH THE TRACK SMOOTHING THROUGH
SOME OF THE ERRATIC MOTION FORECASTS IN THE MODELS. THE NEW TRACK
IS CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND BERTHA COULD COME
EVEN CLOSER TO BERMUDA IF THE JOGS TO THE LEFT IN THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY.

[tolakram]

[HURAKAN]

It seems we have Bertha for at least a week. This will most likely allow Bertha to continue breaking new ground in the record books of S2K in the number of pages per thread.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Could Bertha become a problem for the US after all?

[cycloneye]

It seems we have Bertha for at least a week. This will most likely allow Bertha to continue breaking new ground in the record books of S2K in the number of pages per thread.

This thread is closing in on 4th place on the list of most pages as Frances had 187.

[Brent]

What is the longest-lived July hurricane?

[RL3AO]

Could Bertha become a problem for the US after all?

Unlikely. But it could become a threat to Canada.

[RL3AO]

What is the longest-lived July hurricane?

Hurricane Bertha is back at Category 2 status, and appears destined to become one of the longest-lasting July hurricanes on record. Hurricane Emily of 2005 spent seven full days at hurricane strength in July, which I believe is the record. Bertha is halfway there.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=980&tstamp=200807

[HURAKAN]

It seems we have Bertha for at least a week. This will most likely allow Bertha to continue breaking new ground in the record books of S2K in the number of pages per thread.

This thread is closing in on 4th place on the list of most pages as Frances had 187.

I think we are in pace to pass two hundred. There is a lot of Bertha left.



This makes the case for the EWRC.

[micktooth]

Did you ever think yesterday, that we would have such a nice looking storm today?


"Every Storm is a bad Storm when it's over your house!"--ME