ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Probably the best thing to do now is look where the overall energy tracks becasuse clearly trying to watch the centers, whatever level they are at has not yet shown any results and is just leaving us more confused then ever!

[deltadog03]

there is nothing to suggest that there is a sfc low south of pr. Also models show this spending a little time over dr.

[KWT]

what is that circulating then south of PR then Deltadog, a mid level circulation or something?

[deltadog03]

[quote="KWT"]what is that circulating then south of PR then Deltadog, a mid level circulation or something?[/quote

Yes should be.

[Blown Away]

Has there been any models that do not develop 92L now that it appears obvious the broad circulation will be going over the DR instead of skirting the coast?

[KWT]

most models still form it, even the CMC which takes it over Hispaniola and most of Cuba as well makes into a powerful system in the end.

So do you believe then Deltadog that any LLC will form near the east side of PR, I can see a broad spin there is as well.

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

take a peek at the model thread. They show it spending a little time over land already

[KWT]

Still its odd that the MLC has swang so far to the SW, I've got a feeling there may be actully more than one MLC and this one is just rotating around the broader one over PR at the moment, how strange!

[HURRICANELONNY]

My prayers go out to the people of Puerto Rico. Massive flooding from the mountains could cause devastation and loss of life. Hopefully it doesn't get that bad. It just shows that you don't need a name or even a depression to cause alot of problems. Don't know where it's going or even if it will develop. But it's the best looking wave, I've ever seen.

[Bocadude85]

If a circulation develops it will be off the north coast of puerto rico and this should only skim the north coast of hispanola

[KWT]

The thing that has me questioning is the MLC does still have the deepest convection and therefore still appears to have the best conditions...however given its not been able to drop a LLC yet I find it difficult to believe anything will from it.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT YET
APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
ALTHOUGH WHEN AND WHERE A DEPRESSION MIGHT FORM IS UNCERTAIN...IN
PART DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND MASS OF
HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE...THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is going to commit seppuku on Hispaniola.

It is so big, however, something may reform the other side.


If I had to guess. Everything about 92L has been low confidence.

[HURAKAN]

Everything about 92L has been low confidence.

92L doesn't believe in itself. It needs psychological or psychiatric treatment. At the end I think we may all need some kind of treatment. Too much.

[KWT]

I wonder whether Hispaniola will actually help to concentrate the center a little more and allow something to get going finally on the northern side. Right now it does once again look like the MLC is dominant with the deep convection with it, however I suspect it will weaken somewhat today.

I'm struggling to see anything north of PR though there is clearly a broad turning on the eastern side of the island heading maybe a little north of west, probably about 280 I'd guess, but its very broad.

[Blown Away]

The circulation center reforming/relocating/best guess on the E side of PR will take a little longer to get to the SFL area and more time for the ridge to build in. Likely why we are seeing a model trend to the W. I'm having a difficult time seeing 92L becoming a cane after going through DR, but the models seem to think it will.

[storms in NC]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. IT IS LOCATED OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE YET. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
SATURDAY. EVERYONE WHO IS INTERESTED IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

I read that same one at 4:30 AM this morning. It dosen't look as well as it did at 4:30 either. The ULL to the NorthEast has come back to haunt her. I guess we have to wait this one out. Well back to reading.

[Blown Away]

I wonder whether Hispaniola will actually help to concentrate the center a little more and allow something to get going finally on the northern side. Right now it does once again look like the MLC is dominant with the deep convection with it, however I suspect it will weaken somewhat today.

I'm struggling to see anything north of PR though there is clearly a broad turning on the eastern side of the island heading maybe a little north of west, probably about 280 I'd guess, but its very broad.

The models are initializing on the E side of PR.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html