ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[caneman]

I remember there being a site where you could look back in history and see when a storm formed in a particular area (plug in coordinates) during a particular month that it would show a map pf previous storms and their track. Anyone know of this site and if so, would you post that map? Lets assume the coordinates are where said low may be forming 19 and 66. Thanks in advance.

[KWT]

Yeah thats probably the best guess blown away right now smply because its broad, though right at this moment the vortex south of PR is pretty noticeable as well

[physicx07]

I like that it does that. Having a more southerly initial position gives us a better idea of what the envelope will do farther south (looks like slightly more westward) which is good info.

edit: I take it back. I guess it's not that much more west.

SHIPS is interesting. If it makes solid slam into Hispaniola like most of the models show, it shouldn't be anywhere near that 105 thank God.

I wonder whether Hispaniola will actually help to concentrate the center a little more and allow something to get going finally on the northern side. Right now it does once again look like the MLC is dominant with the deep convection with it, however I suspect it will weaken somewhat today.

I'm struggling to see anything north of PR though there is clearly a broad turning on the eastern side of the island heading maybe a little north of west, probably about 280 I'd guess, but its very broad.

The models are initializing on the E side of PR.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[alan1961]

That gfs setup dont half look scary for Florida and the Gulf...almost that K word scenario ...CMC also is alarming too

[Blown Away]

I remember there being a site where you could look back in history and see when a storm formed in a particular area (plug in coordinates) during a particular month that it would show a map pf previous storms and their track. Anyone know of this site and if so, would you post that map? Lets assume the coordinates are where said low may be forming 19 and 66. Thanks in advance.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/index.jsp

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

By the way as others have said Hispaniola will really not do all that much to a disorganised wave feature, this is not exactly well organised despute being very active in terms of convection, so there isn't a great deal for the mountion to disrupt IF it does end up tracking over the island.

A convective burst close to where the broad circulation should be now as well, interesting!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest radar loop seems to indicate that the center is to the WNW of San Juan right now...

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0

There is nothing to indicate that anything south of the island will try and take over.

[Aric Dunn]

so is it a cat 5 yet ..lol

[cycloneye]

SSD DVORAK HAS IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

Obs do not show a defined center and pressures are quite high.

[Aric Dunn]

SSD DVORAK HAS IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

good job jim cantore... lol

[KWT]

Really tough to tell where the actual center is, radar clearly shows something turning down there but also the radar shows a fairly broad but steady ciruclation emerging from PR, which is clearly the circulation the models and the NHC have latched onto.

Who knows what one will form!

EDIT---if the southerly center is the center then given its still heading slightly south of west it may even possibly miss the main mountions of the island to the south....

[Derek Ortt]

SSD DVORAK HAS IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

its wrong, disregard

I am seeing a circulation (and it is not mid level) just off of the north coast of PR (cannot possibly be mid level as it is so close to the radar)

[HURRICANELONNY]

THE FIRST CAT 5 WAVE OF THIS CENTURY!

[Aric Dunn]

well at least radar presentation looks better than last night..

[KWT]

SSD DVORAK HAS IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

its wrong, disregard

I am seeing a circulation (and it is not mid level) just off of the north coast of PR (cannot possibly be mid level as it is so close to the radar)

Also that circulation seems to have tightened up as well IMO, I think thats more likely to be the center then the southern one but either way we do have STILL two competing circulations!

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

well i imagine we wont see development today or tomorrow .... which is good i guess. and unless it sarts turning more wnw or nw DR is going to keep in check until late tomorrow afternoon


but hey who knows anymore

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know Aric. If the center WNW of San Juan is the dominant center, which I 100% believe it is, this this system is still very much over water and will probably only skim the DR. I think an upgrade to TD or TS is still probably pretty likely today.