ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

I agree Ed I think the border may be closest to being hit but without a center at least offically its not easy to get a good grip on exactly where this thing is going and heading.

[Nederlander]

someone mentioned earlier that a forecast shows a pretty big high centered over mexico over the next few days. if this is true, what impact would that have on the system?

[Nederlander]

this is a very strange looking system... me still thinks there is a lot of rotation on the northwestern side of the storm... but it is late and my eyes may be failing me...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to me that a clearly defined LLC has just formed at 17.5 north/82 west. Let me prove my self 1# it moved across the buoy, so you had a clear wind shift. Now it is south to north as the LLC is now to the west of it, accually northwest of it. 2# you can see that the lower level clouds are starting to spin westward around the southern part of the LLC. Really in all directions you need a LLC.

The LLC is on the edge of the new blow up of convection. Looks like Dolly when recon gets in there. I'm 85 percent sure it is at the surface and closed.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Use the floater.

[Duddy]

This thing is coming for me. I can feel it.

I was pretty concerned also that it would make an upper tx coast hit, but after seeing what everyone has said on here, and seeing how far south it is, it would have to make a serious jog to the north once its in the gulf to make it to houston or port arthur... i guess it depends on the strength of that ridge, and how fast the storm moves over the next couple days....

I don't live near Houston, I live near Matagorda Bay.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, I've been gone for several hours and this thing looks amazing! Deep convection and a possible LLC. NHC could decide to upgrade and 5 if they see an LLC too.

[stevetampa33614]

looking very good. I think the LLC is finally there around 82 W. Hello Dolly.


clearly an LLC has formed
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[Nederlander]

is this where you are seeing the LLC?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

is this where you are seeing the LLC?

Yeah,,, http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html Look at the floater that is centered over the it. It will take a second and you will have to look at the low clouds.

[stevetampa33614]

is this where you are seeing the LLC?

Yeah,,, http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html Look at the floater that is centered over the it. It will take a second and you will have to look at the low clouds.

Ya thats it. About 83 W. You can see it. No way it could be anything else.

Edit I thought I saw that feature earlier but i chalked it up as being tired

showing up very well on IR

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would place the center near 17.5/82 or about 60-80 nmi of the buoy it just moved over.

[stevetampa33614]

I would place the center near 17.5/82 or about 60-80 nmi of the buoy it just moved over.

Very nice matt. You are the first person to officially catch it.

i would guess next Recon its named. Does anybody reading this disagree?

[Nederlander]

Hello Dolly... I agree that it looks pretty definitive. I will also add that it looks like its making more of a NW jog right now instead of WNW. Looks like that to me at least from the last loop.

[stevetampa33614]

Hello Dolly... I agree that it looks pretty definitive. I will also add that it looks like its making more of a NW jog right now instead of WNW. Looks like that to me at least from the last loop.

Ya the models initizialize the center a bit further south. But last night, The bigger of the Convective blobs won out and formed the center. So I would say wait for the models to react for destination, but sure is going straight through the opening into the gulf at that angle.


Latest infrared clearly shows an LLC

[Chacor]

Recon was supposed to leave at 0800. No HDOB yet, and it's nearly 0835.

[Nederlander]

Hello Dolly... I agree that it looks pretty definitive. I will also add that it looks like its making more of a NW jog right now instead of WNW. Looks like that to me at least from the last loop.

Ya the models initizialize the center a bit further south. But last night, The bigger of the Convective blobs won out and formed the center. So I would say wait for the models to react for destination, but sure is going straight through the opening into the gulf at that angle.

I agree. Looks to me like a possible direct hit for Cancun on this track.

[Chacor]

Recon was supposed to leave at 0800. No HDOB yet, and it's nearly 0835.

Correction, recon now underway. Scheduled to arrive at 8 am ET.

[sgastorm]

Recon was supposed to leave at 0800. No HDOB yet, and it's nearly 0835.

They just sent one. See the 94L recon thread.

[americanrebel]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Looking at this image, I would say that the center has to be around 17.5N and 82.0W. There is definitely a some type of swirl around there, might be MLC, but I think it is the LLC finely coming out to play and make us really have fun.

[Nimbus]

Wind direction at buoy 42057 is now from the SE(140). I had been expecting something more from the SW this morning but recon will clear the picture up shortly.

Now that the Upper level low is moving out to the WNW we should see Dolly spin up in the reduced shear. The models will probably track Dolly WNW following the ULL maybe even NW as she becomes deeper and vertical.

Very bad setup for the gulf states, it would have been better if something weak had spun up further north and just sloshed over Cuba and South Florida.