ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

No NHC offical position is still with the north low, they've been tracking that same feature for a fair while now, best track indicates isn't far away from exiting PR, though I think as do others that the center is actually a little further to the NE of where they've placed the center but who knows!

Aric, I agree I don't think its a 'center' just yet still a little broad but its getting slowly more defined.

[Aric Dunn]

Last night when we saw the center just ne of PR, I thought it would pull the convection northward and intensification would begin.

well thanks the mountains of PR for that one... the circualtion was no where near strong enough.. although it is likely that if you were to follow a west motion from last night where ther again appeared to a low. then its postion north of PR or even north of the passage is possible. but surface obs are conflicting with radar and is in conclusive

[HURAKAN]

[hurricanefloyd5]

No NHC offical position is still with the north low, they've been tracking that same feature for a fair while now, best track indicates isn't far away from exiting PR, though I think as do others that the center is actually a little further to the NE of where they've placed the center but who knows!

If thats true and a surface low forms on the northside of the islandd then we (florida) could have a major Hurricane sitting off/on our (florida) coastline right?????????

[wxman57]

Center is definitely just west of northern PR. Outflow looks impressive this morning. It's a TS aloft, but not at the surface. One thing I notice in the many surface obs around the LLC is that the surface winds are up to 15-25 kts now, whereas they were in the 5-10 kt range around the center yesterday afternoon. Maybe it won't be long until it's upgraded. The suspense is killing me. At least I got to sleep past 3:30 this morning.

Track right along the northern DR coast looks good. Big question is when the northerly turn occurs on Sunday. I have a feeling the current model guidance taking it across the eastern Bahamas will be switching back a bit more to the west over the next day or so. Florida's definitely a possible target. The good news about the track close to DR and eastern Cuba is that the proximity to land would slow intensification. But being a small system, if it gets just a little offshore it can strengthen quickly to a hurricane. Possible ETA south Florida late Monday morning if it heads that way.

[Just Joshing You]

I just woke up, is there any new developments? Weakened, recon? Don't want to read 50 pages

[capepoint]

***Not a real forcast by not a real forcaster......

After watching the runs for so long that I drempt about them last night, I will toss this out there. TS within 24 hours. Moves WNW to NW jost north of islands, plows through Bahamas chain, runs north just off central and northern FL, closes carolina coast around Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear region. Moves along or just offfshore of coast from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, clips Hatteras and follows gulf stream offshore. As far as Intensity... Cat 2 bahamas, cat 1 when it finally affects NC.
Thats just a gut feeling based on current runs and years of watching storms from this same area. My cone of uncertainty would allow for final landfall in Brunswick County NC (Cape Fear area) to remaining offshore within 30 miles east of Cape Hatteras.

In my unprofessional opinion, this has 0 chance for GOM. Between a weakness and land interaction with FL, it will remain east of the sunshine state. Neither do I think it will recurve in time to spare Bahamas or totally clear us here in NC. They almost always seem to follow the gulf stream once they clear the bahamas.
On a more curiosity based note..When it gets to SC/NC, watch the TPC forcast. If they call for landfall, look for it about 30-50 miles north/east of where they first call for it. I am not sure if the storm feels the effects of the coastline or what goes on, but this has happened with every TS and hurricane I can remember in my 50 years of living within eyesight of cape Lookout Lighthouse. If they say Myrtle beach, it hits Cape Fear. If they say Cape Fear, it hits Onslow County. If they say Morehead City, it clips Ocracoke and Hatteras. If the say Hatteras, it stays just offshore.
So just to test my land interaction therory, remember this now and IF if heads up the coast, watch the forcast.

[storms in NC]

Untill there is a center there is really nothing to go by other than the L it self. I have no clue at this time. I really havn't looked to tell the truth. But it is getting old here. Too many pages to count on where the center is. There hasn't been a center. Only the ML has been seen. So till someone finds it NO Center.

Now on about the hp that is unreal. I would have thought it would have been lower than it is. But they are quit high would have thought around 999-997 not 1014.

[KWT]

I think with recon going in they won't upgrade until recon finds a clearly defined LLC, not sure we quite have that just yet but looks like that circulation just to the west of PR is looking real good and note the deep convection that is bursting over it as well...as wxman57 said it could be upgraded soon if the LLC is found.

[wxman57]

I just woke up, is there any new developments? Weakened, recon? Don't want to read 50 pages

LLC is almost strong enough for an upgrade. Could happen at any time. NHC may wait for recon this afternoon, though. No change in projected track.

[Just Joshing You]

What is the ambient pressure of the general vicinity?

[HURAKAN]

Convection developing over proposed surface circulation.

[Thunder44]

im sorry but no surface reprots suggest a center off the north coast.. in san juan the winds are SE and in aquadilla on the NW coast the winds are south .. that means the center would be right in the passage... and radar does not support that idea

Radar does support that idea, and so does Derek Ortt. The surface wind reports do seem to indicate a center a little further west though, so I really don't know. The only thing I am pretty sure of is that the center is not south of the island.

I think the center may be bit broad and elongated from NW to SE. You are not to get a perfect windflow that really circles around the center. Also consider that it's moving WNW direction. If you were to draw it, it's probably more oval shaped.

[KWT]

Yep conveciton popping over that center is the final part of what is needed, should help to drive down the circulation to the surface...however land interaction to DR isn't far away which will probably slow any development down i suspect...anyone who thinks it will die overland however is in for another thing...

wxman57, NHC won't bother upgrading until recon, whats the point really of doing it shortly when recon can totally confirm everything a few hours later.

[ftolmsteen]

All bets are off until it's past Hispanola, aka "the Devourer of Storms".

Hasn't there been times when this island has shifted storm's course due to it's high mountain tops?

[wxman57]

Here's a current surface plot with satellite overlay. I put an "L" at the location of the LLC. It's there, plain as day, just west of northern PR in the surface obs. Pressure in the area around 1010mb. The LLC is just about in the center of the convection now.

[jlauderdal]

I just woke up, is there any new developments? Weakened, recon? Don't want to read 50 pages

ok, we have all been on standby waiting for you to awake from you sleep to update you, lol...read the last three pages and you are good to go

[storms in NC]

I just woke up, is there any new developments? Weakened, recon? Don't want to read 50 pages

Don't feel bad. It is all about the same. the center is here no it is here. Back and forth as all ways till there is a real one that pops up. I went back and read the 50 pages. There is some good post. Derek seem to have the most info I think. Good luck reading and Good Morning

[KWT]

Yeah I think the NHC location is pretty close to that as well wxman57, maybe a touch further east but either way under that deep convection that has developed, has it got time to form that LLC before it starts its 24hrs scrape with DR though?

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a current surface plot with satellite overlay. I put an "L" at the location of the LLC. It's there, plain as day, just west of northern PR in the surface obs. Pressure in the area around 1010mb. The LLC is just about in the center of the convection now.

that looks excelent to me i was about to ask what the position is.. i just plotted 18.65n 67.5w