Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[senorpepr]

If I'm not mistaken, there wasn't significant surge with Nargis. Much of the devastation was associated with the winds.

[wxmann_91]

I think we are seeing a surge phenomenon with cyclones that make right angle turns into their southern draw. Sidr hit at the perpendicular angle being spoken of but didn't have a catastrophic surge. Nargis didn't have very much time in the pre-turn phase but did conform to this phenomenon also seen with Ivan and Katrina.

I disagree with Derek that the landfall angle reduced surge. Actually the eye passed in perfect postion to draw hurricane winds up each finger bay along the Delta prolonging a cross sweep of all the bays along the Delta instead of just the ones that a perpendicular strike would have hit. Maybe the surge height was reduced but extensive coastal surge of 12 feet will kill many more than confined surge of 20 feet.

I agree with Sanibel here. The angle at which Nargis hit allowed several hours of strong southerly winds, to the east of the eye, to pile water into the delta. If Nargis had come from the south, the winds in advance of the eye would've been from the east.

I don't think winds have the ability to kill 10,000 people. At least some of the deaths have to be have been from the surge, IMO.

Latest reports are that upwards of 10,000 people were killed in Bogalay ALONE.

[Derek Ortt]

that is not accurate, Sanibel and Wxmann. If that were the case, a hurricane parallelling the OBX should produce a severe surge on the ocean side due to the persistent onshore winds. We know this is not the case.

What I believe to be the reason is that in the parallel case, th winds turn onshore very near the coastline. This somewhat reduces the fetch of wind. A hurricane that smacks at a right angle has a longer fetch of onshore winds.

That said, a 10-12 feet surge is more than enough to cause mass casualties. As I said previously, we had catastrophic instead of cataclysmic damage, or as Max Mayfield used to say, the difference is between being hit by a freight train and a mac truck

[Derek Ortt]

as for the winds, they can cause vast amounts of deaths. I believe most of the 3500 dead in Sidr were due to the winds. This time, the winds (which were more intense than Sidr at landfall, regardless as to what the Incompetent Meteorological Department quacks or even JTWC may say) were higher and the area was more populated.

[HurricaneRobert]

Before & after it looks like the coast fell into the ocean:

[Chacor]

as for the winds, they can cause vast amounts of deaths. I believe most of the 3500 dead in Sidr were due to the winds. This time, the winds (which were more intense than Sidr at landfall, regardless as to what the Incompetent Meteorological Department quacks or even JTWC may say) were higher and the area was more populated.

This has nothing to do with the IMD. The junta could've warned its own populace - they didn't even bother.

[Chacor]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7384858.stm

International agencies are pushing to gain access for a massive aid operation in Burma, where the toll from Saturday's cyclone continues to rise.

State media say 10,000 people died in one town alone, and put the number of dead at 15,000.

Hundreds of thousands of people are said to be without clean water and shelter, with some areas still cut-of.

Burma's leaders say they will accept external help, in a move correspondents say reflects the scale of the disaster.

The military government has traditionally been suspicious of aid agencies, limiting their activities.

But Andrew Kirkwood, Burma country director for Save the Children, said there were positive signs from the Burmese authorities.

"Every indication is that everyone realises that this is an unprecedented event in Myanmar's (Burma's) history and the government is much more open to international assistance than it has ever been."

Mr Kirkwood said that responding to the devastation would be a major logistical feat, requiring boats and trucks.

Work is still underway to assess the scale of the devastation caused by the cyclone, which brought winds reaching 190km/h (120mph).

In the low-lying Irrawaddy Delta region, the storm caused a sea surge that smashed through towns and villages.

"Reports are coming out of the delta coast, particularly the Irrawaddy region, that in some villages up to 95% of houses have been destroyed," said Matthew Cochrane of the International Red Cross.

Ten thousand people died in the town of Bogalay alone, state media said.

The storm destroyed roads, downed power lines and flattened houses, leaving people across the region homeless.

"What is clear at this point is that there are several hundred thousands of people in dire need of shelter and clean drinking water," said Richard Horsey, Bangkok-based spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Prices of food, fuel and basic necessities have also risen dramatically in the wake of the storm, putting more people at risk.

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the UN would do "whatever [necessary] to provide urgent humanitarian assistance".

A shipment of aid from Thailand is due to arrive on Tuesday and India is sending two naval vessels.

The US has also offered to increase aid offered if Burma agreed to allow a US team access to assess the situation.

First Lady Laura Bush, who takes a special interest in Burma, urged Burma to accept $250,000 (£126,000) already allocated for emergency aid, and said more would be available if the team was allowed into the country.

But she accused the Burmese authorities of failing to give a "timely warning" about the approaching storm.

In Rangoon, residents complained that the government response to the disaster has been weak.

"The government misled people," one grocery store owner told the Associated Press news agency. "They could have warned us about the severity of the coming cyclone so we could be better prepared."

Despite the disaster, military leaders there still plan to hold a nationwide referendum on a new constitution on 10 May.

The ruling junta says the charter will bring elections, but critics say will help the military retain its iron grip on power.

[Derek Ortt]

I read that there were warnings, but for weaker winds. That made me concerned as to what was the source of the storm info that Myanmar was using.

[Chacor]

The BBC report quotes "They could have warned us about the severity of the coming cyclone so we could be better prepared."

This suggests all they were warned is that a cyclone was coming, but nothing about its strength.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do they retire storms in the North Indian ocean. In if they do, what is the chances this one will be retired?

[Chacor]

Names are one-use only.

[Ad Novoxium]

The same applies for Southwest Indian Ocean cyclones.

[HURAKAN]

Singapore to provide $200,000 aid to cyclone-hit Myanmar

SINGAPORE, May 6 (Xinhua) -- Singapore announced Tuesday that it will provide 200,000 U.S. dollars in humanitarian aid to Myanmar where Cyclone Nargis has killed at least 15,000 people over the weekend.

Singapore's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the humanitarian assistance package includes medical supplies, water purifying tablets, tents, ground sheets, blankets, sleeping bags and emergency food.

The death toll in Myanmar was likely to rise as officials made contact with the worst-hit Irrawaddy delta areas, Myanmar's foreign minister U Nyan Win said on state television.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Myanmar welcomes foreign aid for cyclone relief

YANGON, May 5 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar said on Monday that the country welcomes foreign aid for relief and resettlement for the regions hit by deadly cyclone Nargis, the State Television reported on Monday night.

The government will also allocate 5 billion Kyats (4.5 million U.S. dollars) in the relief and resettlement undertakings, the report said, adding that a Thai aircraft with relief supplies will arrive in Yangon Tuesday.

The report said 67 powered vessels were sunk by Nargis.

At least 15,000 people have been killed in two divisions of Yangon and Ayeyawaddy in the violent cyclone storm that swept Myanmar's five divisions and states on last Friday and Saturday, said the TV report.

It is estimated that the casualties in Ayeyawaddy division's Bogalay alone will exceed 10,000 and at least 1,000 in Laputta in the same division.

Besides, 2,375 people in Ayeyawaddy division and 504 in Yangon division totaling 2,879 are missing, it said.

In Haing Kyi island in the Ayeyawaddy division alone, nearly 20,000 houses were destroyed, leaving 92,706 people homeless, earlier report said.

The deadly cyclone, which occurred over the Bay of Bengal, hit five divisions and states -- Yangon, Bago, Ayeyawaddy, Kayin and Mon.

Myanmar has declared the five divisions and states as natural-disaster-hit regions.

The government has formed a national central committee for prevention of natural disaster to promptly and effectively carry out relief and resettlement tasks.

This is the first time that Myanmar has been hit by such a deadly cyclone in the history.

[Hello32020]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 879492.ece
Aid workers fear Burma cyclone deaths will top 50,000

Foreign aid workers in Burma have concluded that as many as 50,000 people died in last Saturday’s cyclone, and two to three million are homeless, in a disaster whose scale invites comparison with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

The official death count after Cyclone Nargis is 15,000, and the Thai foreign minister says he has been told that 30,000 people are missing. But due to the incompleteness of the information from the stricken Irrawaddy delta, UN and charity workers in the city of Rangoon privately believe that it will eventually be several times higher...

[P.K.]

This has nothing to do with the IMD. The junta could've warned its own populace - they didn't even bother.

As I mentioned to you yesterday the Burma Met Dept's website which only just seemed to be working again the other day after appearing to be offline due to the volume of traffic didn't appear to have any high wind warning for this. The last warning listed is the 1st March. http://www.dmh.gov.mm/w_other.cfm Although there were storm warnings issued a few days before Nargis made landfall, see http://www.dmh.gov.mm/wnews.cfm?cat=2&id=156, this was last updated a full two days before landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cnn.com/

CNN in a breaking news buletin at the top of the page is saying 22,000 dead

[P.K.]

With a further 41,000 missing.

The death toll in Burma's devastating cyclone has now risen to more than 22,000, state media say.

They say another 41,000 people are missing after Cyclone Nargis hit the country on Saturday, Reuters reports.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7385662.stm

[StormspinnerD2]

I was just about to post a link to the BBC News story, it looks like someone beat me. What a tragedy...I never expected to see a death toll so high in my lifetime.

[CrazyC83]

Deadliest since the 1991 cyclone now...

[Chacor]

Reports coming in that a minister is saying most of the deaths were caused by a 12-foot tidal surge.