ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Storm Contractor]

If Ike is sitting under a ridge then why is the cloud cover expanding so far to the north? I have seen systems look as if they had a book on top of them (flat head). How come that is not the case here?

[dwg71]

there is a slight weakness over ike now, we are talking about 72 hours from now. The ridge will fill in over it connecting Western Gulf with Atlantic high off florida coast.

[vaffie]

If Ike is sitting under a ridge then why is the cloud cover expanding so far to the north? I have seen systems look as if they had a book on top of them (flat head). How come that is not the case here?

Because he's not sitting under a ridge. There's a weakness above him right now. But that weakness will fill in in the next 18 hours and then he will proceed more westward and faster.

[southerngale]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090918-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

late in coming out, hwrf tx,mex border...
fwiw..

That's 18Z. The 0Z is already out. It's further north.
http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[Aristotle]

Great! Now we'll see a shift back to the south tomorrow I suppose! Coming 06Z

[dwg71]

southern gale, couldnt see anything on that link...where does it come in

further north - Corpus or further north Galveston???

[Wx_Warrior]

I've never been big on HWRF...Where does the 0z end up? I get nothing but a broken image.

[Stormcenter]

With some of the new models runs out it still looks like a middle TX coast
event. No major changes in the forecast track upcoming. IMO

[RL3AO]

I've never been big on HWRF...Where does the 0z end up? I get nothing but a broken image.

Don't get too down on it. It will replace the GFDL soon.

[Aristotle]

I've never been big on HWRF...Where does the 0z end up? I get nothing but a broken image.

me 10

[vaffie]

0Z Ukmet out. Just east of Matagorda Bay. East and north of the consensus models/NHC track.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Canadian should be coming out soon.

[JTD]

New GFDL just out:

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 84.0 300./ 8.9
6 23.4 84.7 295./ 6.6
12 23.9 85.4 306./ 8.5
18 24.3 86.1 300./ 7.3
24 24.5 86.9 289./ 7.8
30 24.7 87.7 284./ 7.2
36 25.0 88.7 286./ 9.7
42 25.3 89.7 284./ 9.3
48 25.5 90.8 279./10.7
54 25.7 92.2 279./12.2
60 26.2 93.4 292./12.5
66 26.6 94.8 286./13.1
72 27.1 95.9 296./11.3
78 27.6 97.1 294./11.5
84 28.4 97.9 311./10.3
90 29.2 98.6 322./10.4
96 30.4 98.9 346./12.0
102 31.6 99.1 350./12.6
108 32.9 99.0 6./12.4
114 33.8 98.1 42./11.6
120 34.4 96.7 68./13.0
126 34.9 95.4 71./12.0

[southerngale]

southern gale, couldnt see anything on that link...where does it come in

further north - Corpus or further north Galveston???

hmmm, sorry. The link was working fine, but now the HWRF won't open for me either. No, not Galveston. I didn't look too closely (didn't know I wouldn't be able to look again!), but I think somewhere near Matagorda Bay, or south of there near the NHC track. I'll try to find it somewhere else.

[dwg71]

ukmet a little further south, not much. close to matagorda

[Stormcenter]

0Z Ukmet out. Just east of Matagorda Bay. East and north of the consensus models/NHC track.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Canadian should be coming out soon.

The Canadian is out. It's almost identical to it's last run. IMO

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

no changes to the GFDL or HWRF...understandable since the GFS is not handling the trof very well... GFDL does not even see it for a recurve....I dont think they have nailed this one down just yet.....tomorrow will be the day they do I believe.....NHC probably wont shift their track much unless the EURO shifts further north at 2am....

[ROCK]

0Z Ukmet out. Just east of Matagorda Bay. East and north of the consensus models/NHC track.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Canadian should be coming out soon.

The Canadian is out. It's almost identical to it's last run. IMO

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

actually the prior CMC was east of Houston...this run looks to be right over the west end of Galveston....

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL....Tomorrow is always the best answer!

Sat-"Sunday we will know more..."
Sun-"Monday we will have a better grip"
Mon-"Tuesday is going to be a key day"
Tues-"Wednesday we will likely know..."

[ROCK]

LOL....Tomorrow is always the best answer!

Sat-"Sunday we will know more..."
Sun-"Monday we will have a better grip"
Mon-"Tuesday is going to be a key day"
Tues-"Wednesday we will likely know..."

closer to landfall more consensus right?

[srainhoutx]

Way past my bedtime, but we're seeing a "hint" of consensus coming together. Middle TX Coast and points E IMHO.