TC Bertha

[HurricaneHunter914]

Bertha is really taking her time with this EWRC. Probably won't be done till later tonight.

[KWT]

Yep it is taking its time to finish it, I suppose the fact we have such a large eye and a stubborn inner eyewall hasn't helped.

Matt, to be fair we are in July, a lot of those seasons didn't have a Cape Verde system till early-mid August, lets wait till then before we make those sorts of claims!

[stormcrow]

Am I misreading the models and everything or is this system becoming more likely to visit Newfoundland?

[weatherguru18]

It could easily be a month before we get Cristobal.

Or it could be next Tuesday/Wednesday if you look in the eastern Atlantic.

LOL...I was going to say the same thing.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better now.

[KWT]

A little bit better I agree though you can still see that little bit of eyewall on the SE side with recon should go through shortly I reckon.

[cycloneye]

A question for those who are following the ACE. The ACE counts in intermidiete advisorys?

[Chacor]

A question for those who are following the ACE. The ACE counts in intermidiete advisorys?

No.

[WmE]

A question for those who are following the ACE. The ACE counts in intermidiete advisorys?

No only full advisories are counted.

[cycloneye]

A question for those who are following the ACE. The ACE counts in intermidiete advisorys?

No only full advisories are counted.

Ok thank you.

[HURAKAN]

Good question Luis, I was not sure either.

[Aric Dunn]

wow i've been gone a for a day or so and our system is giving everyone some loops huh... lol great way to start the season ...

nice outflow thats awesome looking

[KWT]

Indeed Aric it has got a decent outflow across most of its quadrants. One thing I note is it looks fairly stable right now which is quite a change compared to the last few days of going up and down in strength quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

Indeed Aric it has got a decent outflow across most of its quadrants. One thing I note is it looks fairly stable right now which is quite a change compared to the last few days of going up and down in strength quickly.

the models are doing some pretty large loops.. i love when they do that...

[Aric Dunn]

one interesting thing to note that will have a pretty interesting affect on the path is the low that should develop of the SE coast you can see it about to exit off SC .. \
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rgb.html

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 3XX MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

____________

So, Bertha is between 300-399 miles from Bermuda. Good to know.

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM intermidiete advisory:

PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS DATA IS CONFIRMED...THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[KWT]

Yep now at 80kts, pretty interesting and not all that from being a category-2 really, still got that messy looking inner core but at least its slowly getting there as well.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 3XX MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

____________

So, Bertha is between 300-399 miles from Bermuda. Good to know.

ABNT20 KNHC 111754
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

...CORRECTION TO MILES FROM BERMUDA

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

I was expecting it. Still, I look at the keyboard and X and 0 are pretty far apart.