ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am looking at the 92L system on tv and I might be seeing things but is a MLC forming well north of the Islands? It looked like it on the last few frames!!!!!!!!!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

By the way, the possibility does still exist for a major hurricane once this leaves the DR (which I will eat crow for ). Both GFDL and HWRF bring it to winds in excess of 150mph, hwrf briefly reaching cat5. In addition, the usually conservative euro brings it into the carolinas at the equivalent of a major hurricane, i believe, and the last ships i saw (last night) brings the storm to 105mph, after crossing DR. Basically, It sounds to me like the stronger the weakness, the stronger it will get.

[Derek Ortt]

I will say one thing...

if this does not develop, GFDL and HWRF just made my red card list

LOL mine too.

LOL..But you said it last night Ortt..Neither of them develop this till E Cuba..

I meant in the unlikely event that it gets buried

[Aric Dunn]

It's funny to see that people are still making predictions after how wrong we have been with 92L. The tropics are a lot of fun.

92L behaves like the phrase says "expect the unexpected."

right .. this things as baffled more times that any other system i can recall..

and ortt .. there is a much more well defined center ( than last night and yesterday) just north of the mona passage. Sat and radar is fairly straight forward on a broad center ...i can clearly see much imporved low level banding.. i agree its not well defined and ealier this morning i was hard pressed to verify that but as the morning prgresses and more visible came in it was becoming quite evidenet.

[Normandy]

And for those that don't believe islands can disrupt a storms inflow, just look at the PR radar loop...You can see most of the precipitation is confined to areas south of the island, and the northern coast is completely dry....that is an indication that the storm's southern inflow is already being hindered.

[KWT]

Well if it takes the northerly option of the GFDL then it may well still have a chance of doing something impressive but there are two issues:

1: its too strong at the start of the run
2: looks like its a touch too far north, meaning in truth it'll spend more time overland.

[Derek Ortt]

Check the SJU radar loop. If you utilize your mouse cursor and plot the movement of the LLC (evident off NW Puerto Rico per QuikSCAT) on the radar, you can clearly detect the fact that the movement is north of due west. If you extrapolate the movement from the LLC's current position in the Mona Passage, it would imply a brief landfall on the extreme eastern edge of Hispaniola, but it would mostly scrape the eastern coastline.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA...11&loop=yes

Does anyone concur? I'm sticking with my original "scrape" call.

Regardless, this will be a significant heavy precip event for Hispaniola, unfortunately.

except for one major problem

radar echos are moving to the east to the south of your position

[GreenSky]

By the way, the possibility does still exist for a major hurricane once this leaves the DR (which I will eat crow for ). Both GFDL and HWRF bring it to winds in excess of 150mph, hwrf briefly reaching cat5. In addition, the usually conservative euro brings it into the carolinas at the equivalent of a major hurricane, i believe, and the last ships i saw (last night) brings the storm to 105mph, after crossing DR. Basically, It sounds to me like the stronger the weakness, the stronger it will get.

Yeah, because a strong weakness will move it longer over the Gulf Stream waters. However, Jeff Masters and other mets do not believe the weakness will be strong enough to pull 92L to the Carolinas...they are leaning more towards the 00Z GFS solution range

[Extremeweatherguy]

lol. Yeah Derek, if this winds up never developing into anything, then I think some changes need to be made to the HWRF and GFDL. This would be a horrible bust on their part.

[txwatcher91]

Check the SJU radar loop. If you utilize your mouse cursor and plot the movement of the LLC (evident off NW Puerto Rico per QuikSCAT) on the radar, you can clearly detect the fact that the movement is north of due west. If you extrapolate the movement from the LLC's current position in the Mona Passage, it would imply a brief landfall on the extreme eastern edge of Hispaniola, but it would mostly scrape the eastern coastline.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA...11&loop=yes

Does anyone concur? I'm sticking with my original "scrape" call.

Regardless, this will be a significant heavy precip event for Hispaniola, unfortunately.

I see what you are talking about, IF that is the center I see then it shoudn't go over too much land, however, don't take what I say for granted as I am an amateur when it comes to looking for weak circulations on radar.

[UpTheCreek]

Completely off topic, but why would Weather Underground be showing Invest 93L?

[HURAKAN]

Completely off topic, but why would Weather Underground be showing Invest 93L?

Because it's back!

[KWT]

Normandy, yeah thats a good point actually, its noticeable though that the circulation survived pretty nicely overland and blew up as soon as it left the coast...however obviously DR is quite another matter esp if it does more then skim the coast but if the energy holds no reason why it can't do the same after it exits DR, blow up over the water, esp if it does so around Dmax.

[UpTheCreek]

Completely off topic, but why would Weather Underground be showing Invest 93L?

Because it's back!

So it is! Thanks......

[HURAKAN]

[GreenSky]

Completely off topic, but why would Weather Underground be showing Invest 93L?

Because it's back!

So it is! Thanks......

probably a fish in the making...not much to get worked up about

[cheezyWXguy]

Well if it takes the northerly option of the GFDL then it may well still have a chance of doing something impressive but there are two issues:

1: its too strong at the start of the run
2: looks like its a touch too far north, meaning in truth it'll spend more time overland.

Yeah, good point. I hate to say it though, but the near-term track may only be the difference between the gfdl's 153mph, and reality's 130mph. Im not saying it will go that high, but several reliable models suggest it has potential. In addition, conditions should be extremely favorable when this leaves land.

[Derek Ortt]

a question that needs to be asked is will the vort max be over land before the aircraft is scheduled to fly. I think that it may and that recon may not investigate (dont want to be flying over mountainous land)

[JPmia]

It's funny to see that people are still making predictions after how wrong we have been with 92L. The tropics are a lot of fun.

92L behaves like the phrase says "expect the unexpected."

I agree. If we have learned anything from the this thing it is that we really don't know what will happen next especially after it crosses northern hispanola and eastern cuba. I think Jeff Masters' write up is a good read.

[HURAKAN]

a question that needs to be asked is will the vort max be over land before the aircraft is scheduled to fly. I think that it may and that recon may not investigate (dont want to be flying over mountainous land)

NOAA leaves at 15Z.