ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

well my opinion is that 92L probably will start to ever-so-slightly turn more WNW soon. You can see the mid and high level clouds streaming quickly ENE over the central bahamas and to the NW of it. All obs along the Florida SE Atlantic coast are WSW winds this morning. That tells me there is a narrow ridge to the north of 92L but the western periphery is nearing. 92L would have to feel this soon wouldn't you think? I think that is why the models think WNW:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[GreenSky]

a question that needs to be asked is will the vort max be over land before the aircraft is scheduled to fly. I think that it may and that recon may not investigate (dont want to be flying over mountainous land)

in that case we can expect another week long delay in upgrading 92L

[Normandy]

Here are some thing to consider:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

The best dynamics (convergence, vorticity, and divergence) are still north of PR and a good deal north....I wonder how that would play into the interaction with Hispanola. Since the center is so broad and diffuse, would any center relocations be likely to occur near the vorticity center indicated by those maps?

[Derek Ortt]

NOAA may still fly as it is a research mission, but the low-level invest likely cannot go forward unless this remains over water then

[alan1961]

may have to wait until Sunday to develop if current trends continue, which will all but eliminate the major hurricane threat to Florida

Yep obviously won't get any stronger overland and even if it did have a LLC it wouldn't survive the trip but I think Hispaniola won't exactly destroy its MLC or the convection too badly.

What about to the Carolinas however, I think thats where this one is destined to go myself rather than Florida, given it has more time as well if it took that track?

just from a UK perspective here is what BBC Aunty projects with there pressure map up till tuesday..not Florida KWT?..may have to get the mr fish man to verify this...haha..

[KWT]

Well it probably won't make no difference anyway gatorcane because its going to hit land pretty much no matter what it does unless it takes a pretty large wobble northwards...

I'm seeing a motion of the overall circulation of about 275 right now, should be inland in 2-3hrs I'd guess then a waiting game begins to see if it can handle the mountions or not...

[txwatcher91]

Am I looking at this map right, it appears to be showing the ridge weakening over the Bahamas right now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Technically, based on QuikSCAT, radar, and surface observations, it's probably a TD now. Note the closed LLC over the Mona Passage.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas20.png

However, the biggest threat will be heavy precip over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

[DESTRUCTION5]

One thing i have noticed with these skirting DR storms if its close to the coast it ususally tries to stay of the coast with eratic wobbles..

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Tolakram's center of last night was the center and did track just north of Puerto Rico. The reason we didn't see a clear center was because this storm is better organized at the mid and upper than bottom so the swirls and eddy's that necessarily form from such close land interaction messed up the structure. This good upper formation says to me that the upper is highly favorable but for some reason the lower isn't. I would hypothesize that this could possibly mean that once this thing organizes at the bottom level it could go big time fast as some were suggesting yesterday. Well, it isn't that simple and conditions could change - but this favorable upper ready to provide for a lower level improvement could change the persisting weakness suddenly. The southern center below PR could just be lower level inflows eddying against Puerto Rico. This would explain why the passage center wasn't as strongly obvious as the center since its southern inflow was restricted. The poleward center should usually assume the axis.

While this could remain weak that well-formed upper is something I wouldn't underestimate with the waters and humidity ahead of it.

[Blown Away]

One thing i have noticed with these skirting DR storms if its close to the coast it ususally tries to stay of the coast with eratic wobbles..

Looks like it's going to get sucked rate down the middle to me.

[KWT]

Hmmm maybe Miami but without recon we obviously can't confirm that...looks like a date with fate awaits for 92L, next 24hrs are vital if it can survive this then its going to have a much flatter Cuba and then probably 2-3 days at least over hot waters near the Bahamas with favorable conditions aloft...

[GreenSky]

Am I looking at this map right, it appears to be showing the ridge weakening over the Bahamas right now.

rather, the ridge is expanding and the trough/weakness currently over the Southeast should lift away to the Northeast

[cheezyWXguy]

Here are some thing to consider:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

The best dynamics (convergence, vorticity, and divergence) are still north of PR and a good deal north....I wonder how that would play into the interaction with Hispanola. Since the center is so broad and diffuse, would any center relocations be likely to occur near the vorticity center indicated by those maps?

That is something that concerns me about either center reformation or the llc tucking under the mlc, which continues to be displace to the NE. Does anyone else see this? Im not saying it will happen, that I want it to happen, or anything, but it does seem to be a possibility, doesnt it?

[Bocadude85]

One thing i have noticed with these skirting DR storms if its close to the coast it ususally tries to stay of the coast with eratic wobbles..

I wouldnt be surprised if this is the case.. I think she will move right along the coast or could possibly reform a center off the coast later today..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks decent on radar this morning, and I personally think this is a TD. Wind directions support it, wind speeds support it, and satellite/radar presentation support it. The question is: Will the NHC also call this a TD at 11am? Chances are they will not without recon support, but who knows.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Miamiwx Radar does look to have a spin that would take cir close to the north of the DR...

[OuterBanker]

You know I am no expert, and I know this this has struggled for some time. But this thing has a perfectly symettrical llc that spans 400 miles. I still think this will fire. I just hope the Euro is wrong.

[cheezyWXguy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Miamiwx Radar does look to have a spin that would take cir close to the north of the DR...

Looks like its centered offshore of NW PR, moving north of due west.

hmmm....am I right?