ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3741 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:07 am

See disclaimer at bottom. I am not even a professional petroleum engineer, as the state of Texas defines it (passed the FE, aka "EIT" test in college, and have a BS, but have never taken the Principles and Practices exam, and thus can't legally call myself a professional engineer), and am not a pro-met. All advice is unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K


lrak wrote:Dang Ed, you are making me worry.



A Cat 2, while meaning days, even weeks of enjoying Texas July weather w/o AC, shouldn't mean major destruction, provided you live in a well built house safely above sea level and away from the flood plains of local creeks and rivers, and you don't have the bad luck of a direct hit of a tornado in an outer rain band.


IIRC, In Galveston when Carla (it could be Celia or Beulah) hit, a dozen people were killed by an unusually strong for a TC tornado, an F-2 or F-3.


But really, if lucky, well built, and away from water, and a big tree isn't next to the house, the biggest issue is days of no AC and rotting food in the fridge.


One of the pro-mets pointed out there are over a hundred thousand people in assisted living or with health issues, who would have serious problems with prolonged loss of electricity.


Note also, and this is key enough for a disclaimer, no worse than a Cat 2 is my personal and unofficial opinion, and I am an amateur, and if the NWS or Pro-Mets forecast something stronger than that or a different main threat area, you'd be foolish to take my advice over their's.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3742 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:07 am

Yes it possible the center will relocate further N. We have seen this occur many times of the years when you interaction with ULL and yes the would impact the models.
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Re:

#3743 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:08 am

HURAKAN wrote:CNN Breaking News:

"The nation was shocked when 94L disappeared from the maps of S2K after a week-long track across the Atlantic Ocean. Nonetheless, the forum of Active Storms comments that it's because Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Western Caribbean. There is more to come." :lol: :lol: :lol:


Our beloved 94L is gone :( :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3744 Postby Dionne » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:11 am

Anyone got a cam link on the Caymans?
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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3745 Postby weatherguru18 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:12 am

Morning! Has Dolly arrived? I'm confused by some of the postings.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3746 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:12 am

personal opinion about warm GOM temps-


The GOM has warmer water later in Summer than the Caribbean, but the warm water is less deep. For a fast moving storm, this means the Gulf can sustain a strong tropical cyclone, even a major hurricane, if atmospheric conditions are favorable. For a slower moving system, upwelling will bring up cooler water from below, and limit intensity.


Por ejemplo, Hurricane Mitch, was able to meander as a Cat 5 in the Caribbean for days, if it had taken that slow path into the Gulf, it would have weakened within a day or two as it churned up cold water.


So, fast movement is key for major hurricanes in the Gulf, the dawdlers will limit their potential.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3747 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:12 am

Well 94L is now in about the same area where in 2005 Wilma started her RIC lets see what 94L can manage in that location!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3748 Postby Grease Monkey » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:13 am

Our beloved 94L is gone


No she's just not a little girl anymore. She's becoming a woman.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3749 Postby Frank P » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:13 am

Looking at the latest GOES vis sat loop you can see a partially exposed LLC at 18.1 and 83.6
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3750 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:13 am

weatherguru18 wrote:Morning! Has Dolly arrived? I'm confused by some of the postings.


Dolly will be made official by NHC by 11am
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3751 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:13 am

Grease Monkey wrote:
Our beloved 94L is gone


No she's just not a little girl anymore. She's becoming a woman.


That's frightening. :eek: :lol:
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3752 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:14 am

Gotta get ready for Mass. This thread, I am sure, will be jumping when I get back.

I think little sister will be big sister soon...

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3753 Postby Scott_inVA » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:15 am

Frank P wrote:Looking at the latest GOES vis sat loop you can see a partially exposed LLC at 18.1 and 83.6


Good eye!

F/A #1 initial position will be well to the NW of the 6Z and 12Z models.

Scott
Last edited by Scott_inVA on Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3754 Postby ronjon » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:17 am

Upper level winds look extremely favorable in 48 hrs with a anticyclone building over the south-central GOM.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3755 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:17 am

Dolly at 11!

000
URNT12 KWBC 201404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1353Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
83 DEG 51 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 080 DEG 80 NM
F. 130 DEG 50 KT
G. 080 DEG 85 NM
H. EXTRAP 1009 MB
I. 23 C/450 M
J. 24 C/463 M
K. 22 C/28 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3756 Postby Frank P » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:18 am

thanks and looks like a pretty healthy LLC at that too... interesting to see what affects it will ultimately have on the modeling... not sure of motion but 300 deg looks as good as any atm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3757 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:19 am

Maybe we'll get a center as it moves towards the warmer waters of Yucatan. Then we'll reduce the number of speculation posts. Depends on the ULL letting it organize better.

I suppose if the ULL positions to its SW in the GOM we'll see some business from this persisting wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3758 Postby Chacor » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:20 am

Sanibel wrote:Maybe we'll get a center as it moves towards the warmer waters of Yucatan. Then we'll reduce the number of speculation posts. Depends on the ULL letting it organize better.

I suppose if the ULL positions to its SW in the GOM we'll see some business from this persisting wave.


You know we already have a centre, yes? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3759 Postby Frank P » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:20 am

you can see the center on the GOES vis sat loop now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3760 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:21 am

Don't rely on The Weather Channel for tropical updates.Last hour the guy said it was still a tropical wave and was headed over the Yucatan.Must be reading the same info from yesterday :roll:
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