ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[txag2005]

Is the GFS going more north?

[feederband]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Stratosphere747]

This isn't a small shift..

[jasons2k]

Since we are getting closer to LF with a potentially major hurricane, the staff will be strictly enforcing our active storms guidelines on the model thread.

Posts may be deleted by the staff without warning.

Posts relating to models only here please. Please take all the general discussion to the general disco thread. Thanks for your cooperation folks.

[Raider Power]

GFS at 60 Hours is shifted north, i will post as soon as more updates

Significant amount north or more noise that seems to come with different model runs?

[Stratosphere747]

[dwg71]

landfall 72 hours just north of corpus, maybe port aransas??

[micktooth]

[txag2005]

Can we tell where landfall is on the GFS and how it compares to the last run?

[HouTXmetro]

A shift is a shift, but that is not significantly north. Last run was just south of Corpus Right?

[thetruesms]

Looks like the GFS may finally be hopping on board. It'll be interesting to see how this affects the GFDL/HWRF runs, and to see if it continues in the 18Z run

[weatherbud]

They are starting to curve Ike north as it gets closer to the Texas coast. This tells us the ridge over the NE Gulf will steer the system NW at first and the ridge behind it will not be as strong. Hurricanes, and low pressures systems like to find a weakness in a ridge/HIGH pressure and follow the path of least resistance. It's like the two highs, one over SE Texas and the other over NE Gulf, are mountains. The Valley is in between and that spot right now is the Central and North Gulf Coast.

The update doesn't seem different to the last one...

[dwg71]

from just south of Corpus to just north. Shift is a shift..

GFDL and HWRF seem to always be left of this, we will see.

[thetruesms]

Can we tell where landfall is on the GFS and how it compares to the last run?

If you have a browser that supports tabs, I suggest putting the 06Z and 12Z runs into separate tabs and clicking between the two. Doing it that way, it becomes pretty easy to see a shift northwards, as well as a very small slowdown, as well.

[Air Force Met]

from just south of Corpus to just north. Shift is a shift..

GFDL and HWRF seem to always be left of this, we will see.

Hence my frustration....with the loosy goosy nature of facts on the board.

No they haven't been. There have been a couple of runs south of the mother model...but overall...they are usually on teh side of the consensus. When GFS was over SE LA...those models were west. When GFS was south near BRO...they were further up the coast. Once in a while they flip.

The 6z hwrf was 60 miles north of the GFS. So was the GFDL.

[jasons2k]

AFM, since you have access to a higher resolution version, can you tell us how much further up the coast this new run is? Thank you.

[thetruesms]

Through 120 hours, it looks like the biggest change in the GFS is that it now goes along with bringing Ike north into Oklahoma instead of westard through South Texas into Mexico

[Air Force Met]

AFM, since you have access to a higher resolution version, can you tell us how much further up the coast this new run is? Thank you.

Its about 60 miles.

The GFS is adjusting for its error from last night. The ooz run was too slow and too weak with the trof. The trof was about 30 meters deeper and 90 miles further to the SE than the 00z forecasted at the 12 hr point. Compairing the 12z/00hr and the actual 12z data...it is still too slow and too weak.

[Steve]

>>Compairing the 12z/00hr and the actual 12z data...it is still too slow and too weak.

Assuming, "Thus additional shifts north may be required as it corrects for the data."

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

AFM, since you have access to a higher resolution version, can you tell us how much further up the coast this new run is? Thank you.

Its about 60 miles.

The GFS is adjusting for its error from last night. The ooz run was too slow and too weak with the trof. The trof was about 30 meters deeper and 90 miles further to the SE than the 00z forecasted at the 12 hr point. Compairing the 12z/00hr and the actual 12z data...it is still too slow and too weak.

So the trough may indeed turn Ike up towards Louisiana instead, especially since Ike seems to be wobbling a bit North towards the weakness over the Gulf Coast?

12Z NAM seens to see the weakness a tad bit better than the 0Z GFS at initialization looking at 500 mb heights, but NAM ignores the weakness, it seems.