ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[TideJoe]

Back later, but unofficially, I'm feeling better now that all reliable models keep Gustav well clear of Texas.

Give it 12 hours and you'll be doing 12 oz curls again.

[cycloneye]

[Sabanic]

Back later, but unofficially, I'm feeling better now that all reliable models keep Gustav well clear of Texas.

Give it 12 hours and you'll be doing 12 oz curls again.

[hiflyer]

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anim ... &gtype=JPG

Ahhah!! Trust the navy....grin

[Nexus]

New popping occuring near center, see if it continues...

[Dean4Storms]

Its not due west, VM clearly shows a WNW direction 305 or so.

Remember...sometimes you can't get a true motion based on the vortex from a loose low level center. Sometimes the vorticee will swirl around the main circulation center...going NW..then W...then sometimes WSW....while the main LLC goes west.

Not saying this is what is happening...but it is a possibility.

But would a vortice have a warm core center?

VDM shows a warm core.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to be heading just north of west to me. Hati messed this system up good, it will likely take at least 24 hours for it to get a innercore focused again to make another run. In if it gets too close to that strip of land on southeastern Cuba it won't strengthen very fast, so this storm has to fellow the nhc track to a "t". We will see.

[Wthrman13]

Looking closely at visible and water vapor loops, it looks like some strong winds in the mid-levels are undercutting the outflow in the NW quadrant, and perhaps bringing some drier air into the circulation as well, but the area where this occurring is pretty narrow in longitude. I don't see any evidence of strong shear, mid-level or otherwise, over the center itself, but there is little convection in the north quadrant for which to look for mid-level cloud tags. At any rate, Gustav is moving into this area of shear and it could at least limit intensification in the short term.

Convection is redeveloping smack dab over the low-level circulation marked by recon. It's not dissipating folks! I expect gradual re-organization and re-intensification this evening and tonight. It may approach the south coast of Cuba, but I don't think it's likely it will make landfall there.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...Hope you are right Ed!! Still think way tooo early and enough with the "dead" issue people. I dont recall anyone posting it's dead. Ragged, yes. Buried? NO!

[CrazyC83]

Center popping suggests a CDO forming?

[Ivanhater]

Looking closely at visible and water vapor loops, it looks like some strong winds in the mid-levels are undercutting the outflow in the NW quadrant, and perhaps bringing some drier air into the circulation as well, but the area where this occurring is pretty narrow in longitude. I don't see any evidence of strong shear, mid-level or otherwise, over the center itself, but there is little convection in the north quadrant for which to look for mid-level cloud tags. At any rate, Gustav is moving into this area of shear and it could at least limit intensification in the short term.

Convection is redeveloping smack dab over the low-level circulation marked by recon. It's not dissipating folks! I expect gradual re-organization and re-intensification this evening and tonight. It may approach the south coast of Cuba, but I don't think it's likely it will make landfall there.

Glad to see you posting..all the pros in here make this site far superior to the rest

[mattpetre]

With all that outflow going into the ULL to the West I would not be surprised at all to see this get going quickly (in Hurricane terms, like 12 to 24 hrs) and be a hurricane again before I leave work tomorrow. The little bit of shear is slight concern for it, but I think the NHC path looks dead on for now and we should see a storm that really starts to make us nervous before leaving work Friday (and I don't know about you, but I'm leaving early that day.)

[Wthrman13]

Its not due west, VM clearly shows a WNW direction 305 or so.

Remember...sometimes you can't get a true motion based on the vortex from a loose low level center. Sometimes the vorticee will swirl around the main circulation center...going NW..then W...then sometimes WSW....while the main LLC goes west.

Not saying this is what is happening...but it is a possibility.

But would a vortice have a warm core center?

VDM shows a warm core.

Sorry, this is one of my big pet peeves . It's "vortex", not "vortice".

Singular: vortex
Plural: vortices or vortexes

Sorry, don't mean to be a grammar Nazi

[Nexus]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[gatorcane]

well at least right now 95L is starting to steal the show.....

95L is becoming large very quickly

[Decomdoug]

Judging from some of the post on the board, school must be out.

[CrazyC83]

well at least right now 95L is starting to steal the show.....

95L is becoming large very quickly

95L might have stolen some of the rogue convection from the eastern side of Gustav...

[poof121]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Is the convection over the center getting sheared to the south?

[Air Force Met]

Its not due west, VM clearly shows a WNW direction 305 or so.

Remember...sometimes you can't get a true motion based on the vortex from a loose low level center. Sometimes the vorticee will swirl around the main circulation center...going NW..then W...then sometimes WSW....while the main LLC goes west.

Not saying this is what is happening...but it is a possibility.

But would a vortice have a warm core center?

VDM shows a warm core.

Yeah. Think of it as a tire with the axil slightly off center...wobbling around.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Judging from some of the post on the board, school must be out.