ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MiamiensisWx]

I expect the advisory to be released within the next fifteen minutes, since they have received the reconnaissance data.

Coordination with Mexico should be "wrapping up" as well.

[njweather]

Hello Dolly. You play nice now...

[Chacor]

Official. Not in an advisory, but still from the NHC.

128
FZNT24 KNHC 201523
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-202130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.4N 84.2W 1008 MB AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT. DOLLY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.7N 86.3W EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...TO NEAR 21.1N 89.5W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW
GULF NEAR 22.2N 92.2W MON NIGHT...AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
NEAR 23.0N 94.0W TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON WED. DOLLY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE FAR WRN GULF THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
GULF AND SW PART OF THE W GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WED AND THU. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU.

[senorpepr]

Keep in mind, before they issue an advisory, the NHC has a conference call with other weather bureaus. They discuss track, etc. I suspect that, after the initial upgrade, they had to craft the advisory package and then are working with these agencies on the final product.

[lrak]

Lets see if that little top blob to the west of the large blob explodes

[cycloneye]

Also,they have to prepare the areas of watches and warnings,make calls to other goverments etc.

[MiamiensisWx]

Official. Not in an advisory, but still from the NHC.

128
FZNT24 KNHC 201523
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-202130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.4N 84.2W 1008 MB AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT. DOLLY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.7N 86.3W EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...TO NEAR 21.1N 89.5W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW
GULF NEAR 22.2N 92.2W MON NIGHT...AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
NEAR 23.0N 94.0W TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON WED. DOLLY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE FAR WRN GULF THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
GULF AND SW PART OF THE W GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WED AND THU. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU.

Change the thread title! Thanks!

[Brent]

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-202130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.4N 84.2W 1008 MB AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT. DOLLY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.7N 86.3W EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...TO NEAR 21.1N 89.5W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW
GULF NEAR 22.2N 92.2W MON NIGHT...AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
NEAR 23.0N 94.0W TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON WED. DOLLY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE FAR WRN GULF THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
GULF AND SW PART OF THE W GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WED AND THU. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU.

Well that's official I guess.

[ColdFusion]

.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.4N 84.2W 1008 MB AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT. DOLLY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.7N 86.3W EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...TO NEAR 21.1N 89.5W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW
GULF NEAR 22.2N 92.2W MON NIGHT...AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
NEAR 23.0N 94.0W TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON WED. DOLLY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE FAR WRN GULF THU.

NICE FIND!

[lrak]

I'd say its official, but not for the ones who aren't awake yet.

[CrazyC83]

Hello Dolly. You play nice now...

I don't expect this dolly to be a nice one...

[Chacor]

Reminder that the prediction/forecast challenge is still on. Thread for Dolly is up: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102013

[CrazyC83]

Also,they have to prepare the areas of watches and warnings,make calls to other goverments etc.

Yep, since there will be tropical storm warnings (and maybe hurricane watches) thrown.

[wxman57]

Dolly Observation 1 on the latest recon message.

[Aric Dunn]

sure is .. model guidance also has it as dolly.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 072013.mod

[HarlequinBoy]

Do you think the MGC/AL coasts are in the clear?

[jinftl]

Weather conditions in Grand Cayman...rain with little wind (highest gust last hour was 14 mph). Barometer 1016 mb and steady.


http://www.weatherincayman.com/wdl/CRL.php

[Aric Dunn]

wow 3 TC in july

and if the wave coming off africa develops . that makes 4

[wxman57]

Do you think the MGC/AL coasts are in the clear?

Nothing to indicate any threat there. All guidance is between Brownsville, TX and Tampico. High pressure is located over the north-central Gulf, so you should be ok.

[hurrican19]

HGX already had their Top News of the Day "Well, hello Dolly!" http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx