ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

BUT the 12z 6hr position is probably only 20-30 miles south of where 92L will actually be centered by 18z.

[txwatcher91]

anyone having difficulty getting that dominican animation to update

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

I am.

[Aric Dunn]

It would be a dead man walking...a naked swirl that would dissipate

Not sure. The perfect upper could carry it.

Not that low level feature. Its a gonner. Whatever is there is racing out to the WNW and will be well away from any upper level support fairly soon...and I mean:
1) Away from the MLC and convection and...
2) Away from the ideal outflow.

It would travel across the northern part of the island...and suck in dry air. It has no support whatsoever. That is not the low to watch. The major spinning is going on due east and ese of Punta Cana. HENCE the reason the convection east of there is moving west. There is a little LLC off the NE coast..NE of Punta Cana...but that will be finished with no support.

anyway this will make it easier for .. punta cana has a NNW wind the center cannot be directly east of there http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPC.html..

[gatorcane]

I'm a little worried about complacency in Southern Florida on this one. Though some systems like Debby, David, and Ernesto never materialized, we can site others like the 1935 Keys Hurricane (and Wilma we may argue) that experiened RI in the matter of 24-48 hours crossing over the Bahamas islands and FL Straits. If the NHC indicates Southern Florida is a "distinct threat" (Beven) pay attention in my opinion.

and should 92L take off and bomb out like the GFDL and HWRF suggest there just won't be enough time to prepare in my opinion. Better prepare now and be safe then sorry. The scary thing is that there is REAL model support on this happening otherwise I wouldn't believe it

bump for South Floridians.

[txwatcher91]

BUT the 12z 6hr position is probably only 20-30 miles south of where 92L will actually be centered by 18z.

So 92L would move NW then? That seems very unrealistic, that the GFS initializes 125 miles south of PR and then moves it 100 miles north and only 25 miles west? That just doesn't make sense to me.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

BUT the 12z 6hr position is probably only 20-30 miles south of where 92L will actually be centered by 18z.

So 92L would move NW then? That seems very unrealistic, that the GFS initializes 125 miles south of PR and then moves it 100 miles north and only 25 miles west? That just doesn't make sense to me.

The initialized position was just a broad area of low pressure. It gets it right at 6 z so the rest of the run is valid.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at the DR radar with my amatuer eyes I see a mid level center just to the NE of Punta Cana and what could be a llc about 50 km ENE of Punta Cana. This radar definitely discounts, atm, anything to the south of that as I had mentioned the possibility of earlier. If I am correct, I don't see these having time to stack and get any kind of core going for at least another 24 hours, if not longer.

[KWT]

It doesn't matter the fact is it hasd the right position at 6hrs into the future so you can safely assume its not going to have the wrong idea after that. Its interesting because it obviously does raise the chances at least of a W.Florida hit....

however until we get a center who knows...but the 12z GFS track is FAR better for this system as it gets into the water quicker then if it took some of the other models track.

[txwatcher91]

BUT the 12z 6hr position is probably only 20-30 miles south of where 92L will actually be centered by 18z.

So 92L would move NW then? That seems very unrealistic, that the GFS initializes 125 miles south of PR and then moves it 100 miles north and only 25 miles west? That just doesn't make sense to me.

The initialized position was just a broad area of low pressure. It gets it right at 6 z so the rest of the run is valid.

At 6Z it is still south of DR, how is that right when the center appears to be east or NE of DR?

[cpdaman]

Air force met , thank you for your patience with everyone! with that said ...could this not be what is occuring

it appears clear to me that aric location is the center and that the convection developing to the south of the center is expanding westward (while the center is still developing and getting better organized) creating the impression of westward moving convection to the south of his proposed LLC ( i think that the convection that was to the south of aric proposed LLC is building west and will soon be part of a souther inflow to the LLC.....

[sunnyday]

Local met in WPB said this may be nothing or may be a storm. Very helpful....I still feel it will be nothing, imho.

[ekal]

Remember ekal, that Wilma, Katrina, Andrew, etc. RI under similar upper level conditions and in similar areas of TCHP.

True, but let's look at some of these storms.

Wilma spent nearly a day over the Yucatan. Winds dropped from about 140 mph to 100 mph. However, this storm had a defined LLC when it went in, and a defined LLC when it came off. This system, however, is struggling in that department.

Katrina bombed out quickly in the Bahamas. But there was no land interaction, and the system was crawling along for a time as it approached the Gulf stream.

Andrew had days of no land interaction, high heat content, and, eventually, exceptional upper-level conditions. The track was completely different. It also had a defined LLC and was classified as a tropical depression / tropical storm for 3-4 days before it really began intensifying.

I would say that Katrina (east of Florida only) and Erin, as NEXRAD mentioned, will be most similar to 92L as it emerges land. However, neither of these systems intensified from 25 knots to even 60 knots in 24 hours. That is why I do not expect a hurricane to affect SE Florida from 92L, although the possibility is definitely there farther north (forgive me for being so concentrated on SE FL).

And yes, I still expect this system to develop.

[hial2]

BUT the 12z 6hr position is probably only 20-30 miles south of where 92L will actually be centered by 18z.

So 92L would move NW then? That seems very unrealistic, that the GFS initializes 125 miles south of PR and then moves it 100 miles north and only 25 miles west? That just doesn't make sense to me.

The initialized position was just a broad area of low pressure. It gets it right at 6 z so the rest of the run is valid.

I respectfully disagree..If the initialized position is wrong,the rest of the run is wrong.

[robbielyn]

high confidence .. in the location of the center

I think the closed low is right where it says punta. It's a small but thick circle by the 't'

[gatorcane]

Remember ekal, that Wilma, Katrina, Andrew, etc. RI under similar upper level conditions and in similar areas of TCHP.

True, but let's look at some of these storms.

Wilma spent nearly a day over the Yucatan. Winds dropped from about 140 mph to 100 mph. However, this storm had a defined LLC when it went in, and a defined LLC when it came off. This system, however, is struggling in that department.

Katrina bombed out quickly in the Bahamas. But there was no land interaction, and the system was crawling along for a time as it approached the Gulf stream.

Andrew had days of no land interaction, high heat content, and, eventually, exceptional upper-level conditions. The track was completely different. It also had a defined LLC and was classified as a tropical depression / tropical storm for 3-4 days before it really began intensifying.

I would say that Katrina (east of Florida only) and Erin, as NEXRAD mentioned, will be most similar to 92L as it emerges land. However, neither of these systems intensified from 25 knots to even 60 knots in 24 hours. That is why I do not expect a hurricane to affect SE Florida from 92L, although the possibility is definitely there farther north (forgive me for being so concentrated on SE FL).

And yes, I still expect this system to develop.

From a Gator to a Seminole I sure hope you are right. I get a sense that nobody is taking it seriously in Southern Florida except the weather watchers.

[wxman57]

high confidence .. in the location of the center

How is that the center according to radar? The echoes south of that location are moving west...as are the echoes north of it. If it is anywhere...it is in the Mona Passage where the NHC says it is.

If by some chance there is a LLC there...it is doomed. Skirting the northern coast of Hispaniola with no convection is a death sentence. It would be a dead man walking...a naked swirl that would dissipate.

Agree with you AFM, all I see is a curved rainband there. No evidence of rotation. Winds across eastern DR are from about 340-350 degrees now, indicating a position very near the eastern tip of the DR, perhaps 18.6N/68.25W. It does look better organized than it has for days. But I'm not so sure it'll be destroyed by the DR or eastern Cuba. It won't develop/intensify much the next 48 hours, but once it moves north of Cuba on Sunday afternoon it may spin up rapidly. On the other hand, I won't be TOO disappointed if I don't have to work 16 hours a day Sat/Sun.

[txwatcher91]

Remember ekal, that Wilma, Katrina, Andrew, etc. RI under similar upper level conditions and in similar areas of TCHP.

True, but let's look at some of these storms.

Wilma spent nearly a day over the Yucatan. Winds dropped from about 140 mph to 100 mph. However, this storm had a defined LLC when it went in, and a defined LLC when it came off. This system, however, is struggling in that department.

Katrina bombed out quickly in the Bahamas. But there was no land interaction, and the system was crawling along for a time as it approached the Gulf stream.

Andrew had days of no land interaction, high heat content, and, eventually, exceptional upper-level conditions. The track was completely different. It also had a defined LLC and was classified as a tropical depression / tropical storm for 3-4 days before it really began intensifying.

I would say that Katrina (east of Florida only) and Erin, as NEXRAD mentioned, will be most similar to 92L as it emerges land. However, neither of these systems intensified from 25 knots to even 60 knots in 24 hours. That is why I do not expect a hurricane to affect SE Florida from 92L, although the possibility is definitely there farther north (forgive me for being so concentrated on SE FL).

And yes, I still expect this system to develop.

But the models show it in the clear late Saturday with landfall at the earliest on late Monday or Tuesday IF it hit Miami area, if it is further east it would have even more time over water.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

So 92L would move NW then? That seems very unrealistic, that the GFS initializes 125 miles south of PR and then moves it 100 miles north and only 25 miles west? That just doesn't make sense to me.[/quote]

The initialized position was just a broad area of low pressure. It gets it right at 6 z so the rest of the run is valid.[/quote]

I respectfully disagree..If the initialized position is wrong,the rest of the run is wrong.[/quote]

There is no LLC so how can a position be wrong. QS showed that position this morning.

[HURAKAN]

[Air Force Met]

anyway this will make it easier for .. punta cana has a NNW wind the center cannot be directly east of there http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPC.html..

It can't?

So...you know the frictional effects at Punta Cana? You know for a fact that the winds follow the pressure gradient there and that some local topography doesn't alter them in some way? You also know for a fact that the sfc feature isn't elongated?

I don't know all of that. I do know I have observed (put them on the form 10 and the 3803) winds from the west when the pressure gradient said they should be from the north....especially when they are 10 kts.

You have to know a lot about a sfc observing site before you start making assumptions such as yours.